The Michigan Wolverines take on the Maryland Terrapins in College Park, Maryland, on Saturday, Nov. 22. Kickoff is set for 4 p.m. ET on Big Ten Network.
Michigan is favored by 14 points on the spread with a moneyline of -575. Maryland, meanwhile, enters as a +14 underdog and is +425 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 46.5 total points.
Here’s my Michigan vs. Maryland prediction and college football picks for Saturday, November 22.
Michigan vs Maryland Prediction and Picks
- Michigan vs. Maryland Pick: Maryland +14 (Play to +13)
My Maryland vs. Michigan best bet is on the Terrapins to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Michigan vs Maryland Odds
| Michigan Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-13.5 -115 | 46.5 -110o / -110u | -670 |
| Maryland Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+13.5 -105 | 46.5 -110o / -110u | +460 |
- Michigan vs Maryland Spread: Michigan -13.5, Maryland +13.5
- Michigan vs Maryland Over/Under: 46.5
- Michigan vs Maryland Moneyline: Michigan ML -670, Maryland ML +460
Michigan vs Maryland Game Preview
Why Michigan Will Win
Simply put, Michigan is in a terrible situational spot at College Park this weekend, as it absolutely cannot afford a slip-up next week against Ohio State if it wants even the slightest chance at making the College Football Playoff.
The Terrapins haven't played their best football lately, so it's definitely scary taking the points here, but I can't stress enough how much the situational spot weighs on the handicap.
Michigan's entire season is on the line next weekend, so I envision it to be a bit sleepy here.
Its injury situation is also not ideal, as starting running back Justice Haynes is expected to miss the remainder of the regular season, removing the engine from a rushing attack that ranks 10th nationally in EPA/Rush and has been the foundation of its early-down efficiency.
His absence forces Michigan to lean on younger, less physical backs, meaning the Wolverines’ most significant edge is no longer the same mismatch it usually is.
That shift is coming against a Maryland defense that, while inconsistent, actually matches up better with Michigan than many may realize.
The Terps rank 21st in EPA/Pass allowed and 19th in Early Downs EPA/Play allowed. These two areas can frustrate a Michigan offense that sits just 60th in EPA/Pass and relies heavily on staying ahead of schedule to avoid challenging third-down scenarios.
Even in the trenches, Maryland isn’t as overmatched as narratives suggest. The Terps have been nothing to write home about defensively, but they should be able to survive here with Michigan's offense being shorthanded.
The Wolverines’ average third-down distance of 6.97 yards actually gives the Terps a shot to end drives instead of letting Michigan bleed clock with methodical drives.
Why Maryland Will Win
On the other side, Maryland’s offense doesn’t need to be explosive to cover this number, but the metrics suggest it can be just that.
Michigan’s defense, though highly respected, has shocking soft spots. The Wolverines rank 131st in EPA/Rush allowed and 100th in available yards allowed, and they tend to give up chunk plays early in series, leading to manageable down-and-distances.
That pairs well with a Maryland offense ranked 19th in available yards gained.
Combine that with Michigan’s defensive reliance on bottling up early downs, which is something it's struggled with lately, sitting just 85th in Early Downs EPA allowed. Maryland should sustain enough drives to stay within striking range.
How To Make Maryland vs Michigan Picks and Predictions
When adding in home-field advantage, Michigan’s lower offensive ceiling without Haynes and the massive look-ahead spot with the Buckeyes on deck, everything lines up for this being the classic, sleepy “just get out of here healthy” road performance from Michigan.
That’s precisely the kind of script that we want here for the Terps, especially if they can stay competitive throughout.
Maryland +13.5 is playable, but this line has hit +14, which is the perfect buy point in one of the best situational underdog spots of the week.
Pick: Maryland +14 (Play to +13)
Moneyline
No interest; PASS.
Against The Spread
Back Maryland at +13 or better.
Over/Under
No interest; PASS.
Michigan vs Maryland Trends to Know
