Florida vs. Miami Preview
Preseason expectations have the Florida Gators and Miami Hurricanes heading in opposite directions, which gives us an opportunity to make a Florida vs. Miami prediction.
A victory in the Seminole War Canoe Trophy game will jump-start a 2024 season in which nearly every Power Four program in the state of Florida will play each other.
Head coach Billy Napier has the hottest seat in college football after finishing below .500 in consecutive seasons at Florida. The Gators take home the prize of having the toughest strength of schedule in the nation, facing Central Florida and Florida State outside of a brutal second-half SEC stretch.
With a closing season win total at 4.5, there's not much expectation from oddsmakers that Napier can avoid the unemployment line this holiday season.
Florida vs. Miami Picks
Florida vs. Miami Moneyline
Our expert is betting the Hurricanes' moneyline at -135 or better.
Pick: Miami ML -135 or Better |
Florida vs. Miami Odds
| Florida Gators Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+2.5 -105 | 54.5 -105o / -115u | +120 |
| Miami Hurricanes Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-2.5 -115 | 54.5 -105o / -115u | -145 |
Mario Cristobal enters his third season in Coral Gables and is also bringing a losing record into 2024.
Miami is coming off two consecutive top-10 transfer portal hauls as expectations build with significant additions at quarterback and running back. The Hurricanes are expected to make the ACC Championship game and compete for a spot in the College Football Playoff.
Despite winning 12 games over two years, Miami's preseason win total of 9.5 provides no wiggle room for a loss in coin-flip games.
The Hurricanes lead the series 29-27 since both teams first met in 1938. A win by Florida would not only close the series gap but flip the outlook of both programs for the remainder of the season.
That being said, let's get to my Miami vs. Florida pick and preview.
How to Watch Florida vs. Miami Live: Start Time, TV Channel, Location
| Location: | Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, Gainesville, FL |
| Date: | Saturday, Aug. 31 |
| Kickoff Time: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ABC |
Florida Betting Preview: Gators May Struggle on Ground
Graham Mertz enters his sixth season of college football and logged the lowest turnover-worthy play rate of his career at Florida last season.
After spending his first four seasons with Wisconsin, Mertz posted his highest adjusted completion percentage, lowest drop rate and a significant spike in deep ball efficiency.
Even more impressive is an offensive line that finished 78th in pass blocking to go along with the quarterback's rank of eighth in on-target balls.
#Gators starting QB Graham Mertz goes 20 yards and 60 yards, consecutively, to Tre Wilson III for a TD. Smooth look-off and step-in fake on that play. 8/13 for 123 yards now. pic.twitter.com/dkPXfFe0BA
— OnlyGators.com: Florida Gators news (@onlygators) April 13, 2024
The loss of Trevor Etienne to Georgia is a setback for the ground attack, but lead rusher Montrell Johnson Jr. racked up five touchdowns and 3.5 yards after contact.
A split mix of inside and outside zone read will power a running game that often stalled and kept the Gators in passing downs.
The good news for Mertz is a familiar face in the receiving unit, as Wisconsin transfer wideout Chimere Dike reunites with his quarterback, last posting an explosive 2.3 yards per route run in 2022.
Although Ricky Pearsall took his game to the NFL, the Gators return plenty of experienced targets including receivers Kahleil Jackson, Eugene Wilson and tight end Arlis Boardingham for 146 targets and 11 touchdowns from last season.
The Gators will have their hands full with a Hurricanes defensive line that projects as the best in the ACC. Edge Rueben Bain nearly doubled any other Miami defender in pressures, while interior transfers Simeon Barrow and CJ Clark ranked top-100 individually in pass rush productivity.
The area Florida can attack is Miami's secondary, as defensive coordinator Lance Guidry is set to line up highly-recruited Zaquan Patterson at safety. Corner Damari Brown posted one of the worst tackle grades on the roster as a freshman last year.
Miami Betting Preview: Are Hurricanes a Contender?
Cristobal landed two of the biggest offensive pieces in college football in quarterback Cam Ward of Washington State and running back Damien Martinez of Oregon State.
Ward has had a tumultuous career with the Cougars and Incarnate Word, generating 79 turnover-worthy plays alongside 71 big-time throws. The numbers paint a more chaotic picture on the ground with 16 career rushing touchdowns to 46 fumbles.
Ward never had an offensive line that finished mid-FBS or better in pass blocking, an element that will change in 2024.
The Miami offensive line ranked 10th in pass blocking a season ago, returning more than 120 starts and nearly every snap. Ward's ability to scramble and create explosives should be enhanced by the best projected pass protection in his career.
Is new Miami QB Cam Ward the most likely QB to make a Jayden Daniels-like run to the Heisman and the top of the draft?
— Steve Palazzolo (@StevePalazzolo_) July 5, 2024
Martinez was a bulldozer for the Beavers, rushing for more than 2,100 yards in two years of service.
The junior increased his yards after contact to 3.8 with 20% of rushing attempts going for more than 10 yards. While Oregon State ran a heavy amount of outside zone read, Miami is expected to use Martinez with inside zone and man run concepts.
Coordinator Shannon Dawson led Miami to a top-10 rank in standard downs explosives, a statistic that should continue to play out with Ward and Martinez in the fold.
The Florida defense may be ripe for easy rushing attempts after falling out of the top 35 in Line Yards and Stuff Rate. Co-defensive coordinators Ron Roberts and Austin Armstrong have the strength in the secondary to limit the Hurricanes' passing attack.
Safety Jordan Castell, along with cornerbacks Devin Moore and Jason Marshall, produced three pass breakups a piece while placing Florida inside the top 25 in on-target ball allowed.
For the Gators to stop a Hurricanes offense that will improve on a top-30 Quality Drives rank, the defensive front must eliminate extra yards on the ground.
Florida vs. Miami Prediction, Pick
The ability to create Havoc is of supreme importance when handicapping.
Ward has a penchant for ill-advised passing attempts and a career issue of fumbling the ball. Florida finished 101st in Defensive Havoc a season ago, a statistical combination of passes defensed, sacks and tackles for loss.
Edge Princely Umanmielen held the highest sack rate on the team but transferred to Ole Miss. Only 33% of quarterback hits return from a season ago, and those were mostly produced by the secondary on blitz downs.
With Miami fielding a top-10 offensive line, getting Ward to cough up the ball is unlikely.
While Martinez should keep Miami's chains moving, the Florida rushing attack lacks a similar potency. With Etienne in the fold last season, the Gators ranked outside the top 60 in EPA with an offensive line responsible for a Havoc Allowed rank of 93rd.
Mertz led an offense that struggled on third downs, despite posting a career-high in accuracy.
The Action Network power ratings project a 4.5-point victory for Miami — a number not expected to pop in the current market.
Florida has gained popular support at +3. This number is expected to bounce and close within a field goal.
The Gators don't have a clear path to Havoc and won't be a brick wall against rushing attempts, so take Miami in the first battle of Power Four teams within the state of Florida.
My Pick: Miami ML -135 or Better
