Rivalry week brings us the battle for The Land of Lincoln Trophy when the Illinois Fighting Illini (8-3, 5-3 Big Ten) travel to Chicago to face the Northwestern Wildcats (4-7, 2-6 Big Ten) at Wrigley Field. This game will take place at noon Eastern Time on Big Ten Network.
Illinois enters this one as a 7.5-point road favorite on the spread with a 44-point over/under.
Northwestern has controlled the Land of Lincoln Trophy following a 45-43 win a year ago, and they have won three of the last five matches with the Illini. Can the Illini take the trophy back, or will the Wildcats play spoiler again and keep it for another year?
Here are my Illinois vs Northwestern predictions and college football picks.
Illinois Fighting Illini vs Northwestern Wildcats Prediction
- Illinois vs. Northwestern pick: Under 44
My Illinois vs. Northwestern best bet is on both teams to stay under the total.
Illinois vs Northwestern Odds, Lines, Spread
| Illinois Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8.5 -110 | 43.5 -115o / -105u | -350 |
| Northwestern Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8.5 -110 | 43.5 -115o / -105u | +260 |
- Illinois vs Northwestern Spread: Illinois -8.5 · Northwestern +8.5
- Illinois vs Northwestern Over/Under: 43.5
- Illinois vs Northwestern Moneyline: Illinois ML -350 · Northwestern ML +260
Illinois Football vs Northwestern Football Week 14 Preview
Illinois Fighting Illini Betting Preview: Strong Defense and Solid Offense
Coach Bret Bielema has established the culture at Illinois as a physical running team and solid defensive team.
After a rough year last season, he has the Illini back near the top of the Big Ten, ready to compete in Bowl Season.
Bielema will want to get the trophy back and win in rivalry week against a tough Northwestern team, especially since the weather looks cold and windy.
The Illinois offense has been excellent, averaging 28 points per game. Most of that offensive production can be attributed to the big step Luke Altmyer took at the quarterback position and pacing this passing attack to 28th nationally in Pass Success Rate and 25th in Pass Explosiveness.
This team's identity lies in running the football, where they rank 46th in rush rate. However, they have not done so effectively on the season, ranking 90th in Rush Success Rate and 91st in Rush Explosiveness. Their inability to run the ball could be a big issue in this cold and windy weather. They must be more efficient to help ease the pressure on Altmyer and this passing attack.
The Fighting Illini have been pretty good defensively on the season, allowing 21.5 points per game. The strength of this defense, as expected in a Bielema-led defense, is in the front seven and stopping the run. The Illini rank 58th in Rush Success Rate allowed, and 21st in Rush Explosiveness allowed.
The pass defense is how to attack the Illini, which ranks 79th nationally in Pass Success Rate allowed. Illinois does a good job limiting big plays through the air, though, ranking 18th in Pass Explosiveness allowed. The Wildcats offense will have their hands full with this bunch.
Northwestern Wildcats Betting Preview: Looking to Build Momentum
Coach David Braun is looking to salvage this season after it has not gone as planned with where they currently sit.
This would be a big win to build momentum for Braun and his team going into next season. I would expect this to be a game they come in very focused to win, given this is the last time these seniors will play together.
The Wildcats’ offense has not been very good to date, averaging 16.9 points per game and only 270 yards of offense per game.
Jack Lausch has more interceptions than touchdowns this year. His passing offense ranks 89th in Pass Success and 125th in Pass Explosiveness.
The good news for Lausch is that the weather will limit everyone’s ability to throw, so they will lean in on Cam Porter and the ground game to generate offense. The Wildcats rank 73rd in Rush Success Rate and 44th in Rush Explosiveness, which may not be good enough to find sustained success against a tough Illinois front. They must scheme their runs well to get the ground game going.
Northwestern's strength has been its defense. The Wildcats limit opposing teams to 25.2 points per game and 360 yards of offense per game.
The strength of this defense is the run defense, which is elite at stopping the run. The Wildcats rank 22nd in Rushing Success Rate allowed and third in Rushing Explosiveness allowed.
The place to attack this Wildcat defense is through the air, where they rank 97th in Pass Success Rate allowed. The cold environment should help protect this weakness.
Illinois vs Northwestern Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Illinois and Northwestern match up statistically:
Illinois Offense vs. Northwestern Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 73 | 74 |  |
| Line Yards | 47 | 70 | |
| Pass Success | 43 | 77 | |
| Havoc | 106 | 81 | |
| Finishing Drives | 44 | 56 | |
| Quality Drives | 19 | 79 | |
Northwestern Offense vs. Illinois Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 125 | 128 | |
| Line Yards | 131 | 132 | |
| Pass Success | 122 | 59 | |
| Havoc | 108 | 114 | |
| Finishing Drives | 128 | 50 | |
| Quality Drives | 118 | 73 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 8 | 102 |
| PFF Coverage | 40 | 42 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 18 | 97 |
| Middle 8 | 51 | 128 |
| Seconds per Play | 28.0 (92) | 29.3 (115) |
| Rush Rate | 55% (67) | 50% (99) |
How to Bet My Illinois vs Northwestern Pick
With both offenses wanting to run the ball and both defenses being robust against the run, I suspect this will be a physical slugfest at Wrigley.
I think the cold environment will limit both sides from producing big plays through the air, so I think it will be a close, low-scoring affair.
Pick: Under 44
Illinois vs Northwestern Location, Channel, How to Watch, Start Time, Streaming
| Location: | Wrigley Field |
| Date: | Saturday, Nov. 30 |
| Kickoff Time: | 12 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | Big Ten Network |
Illinois vs Northwestern will be played at Wrigley Field in Chicago, Illinois, on Saturday, Nov. 30 at 12 p.m. ET. You can stream the game live on Big Ten Network.
Illinois vs Northwestern Betting Trends
