College Football Picks for Friday, Nov. 22
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7 p.m. | |
  | 8 p.m. | |
  | 10 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Friday. Night. Lights.
There's nothing like some good college football under the lights before Saturday's slate of wall-to-wall action, and this week is no different.
This week, we have three games on our Friday night schedule: Temple vs. UTSA, Purdue vs. Michigan State and UNLV vs. San Jose State.
Our college football writers broke down all three games and came through with a best bet for each one.
Without further ado, let's dive into some Friday college football odds and NCAAF picks, including our top bets for the games on Nov. 22 — and be sure to check back tomorrow for even more college football betting coverage.
Temple vs. UTSA Pick & Best Bet
By Joshua Nunn
The Temple Owls (3-7, 2-4 AAC) take on the UTSA Roadrunners (5-5, 3-3) in American Athletic Conference play on Friday night. The game kicks off at 7 p.m. ET and can be seen live on ESPN2.
UTSA is starting to find its rhythm, winning 3 of its last 4. Now, it's seeking to unlock bowl eligibility in its home finale.
Meanwhile, Temple is struggling through another losing season and has recently fired head coach Stan Drayton. However, the Owls are coming off an 18-15 win over Florida Atlantic, leading to the firing of FAU head coach Tom Herman.
UTSA enters this conference clash as a hefty -16.5 favorite, while the over/under is set at 56.5. So, where does the Friday night betting value lie?
Let's take a look at my Temple vs. UTSA predictions and college football picks for Friday, Nov. 22.
Temple Owls
Temple comes in off an 18-15 home win against FAU in overtime last week — its third home victory of the season.
The Owls controlled the game throughout, holding FAU to just seven points and 242 yards before a game-tying touchdown drive in the final minute forced overtime.
Temple played one of its best games of the season defensively, and quarterback Evan Simon continued to impress after taking over for Forrest Brock.
While Temple does have some nice home wins against some of the weaker teams in the AAC, the Owls have been terrible on the road this season and figure to struggle here in this matchup in a hostile environment.
Defensively, Temple ranks near the bottom of FBS in many of the key metrics that UTSA will exploit. The Owls rank 129th in Defensive EPA Per Rush allowed and 127th in Rush Explosiveness allowed.
UTSA running backs Robert Henry and Kevorian Barnes should have plenty of running room as the offensive line creates some big holes against an overmatched Temple defensive front seven that has given up 227 yards per game and 5.7 yards per carry over the last three weeks.
The Roadrunners have also been running quarterback Owen McCown more in recent weeks, and mobile quarterbacks carrying the football have given the Temple defense problems all season.
UTSA Roadrunners
UTSA started the season 2-4, seemingly void of identity and direction as a program. The Roadrunners looked average against Kennesaw State in the opener and found themselves on the wrong end of two close losses in conference play.
However, UTSA has responded well to save its season, winning three of its last four games. It also arguably should have defeated Tulsa sandwiched in between the victories.
The Roadrunners should have their way against this Temple defense, as the offense has been surging the last four weeks.
McCown has thrown for over 300 yards in each of the last four weeks and added 88 rushing yards on 10 carries against North Texas last week.
This team is firing on all cylinders right now, and I'd be stunned if we didn't see a strong performance out of “Meep Meep” on Friday night.
Temple vs. UTSA Prediction
I'm going to hit the Roadrunners' team total in this Friday night home finale for UTSA.
Temple has been impressive at home this season, winning three games and remaining competitive in another — but its performance has dropped off significantly on the road.
This Temple team is still one of the worst in FBS and has surrendered 108 points combined over its last two games on the road. For the season, the Owls have been outgained by 181 yards per game on the road and have given up 45 points per game away from home.
The UTSA offensive line has been playing better of late and seems to have fixed the protection issues that led to plenty of sacks earlier in the season. The Roadrunners have surrendered five sacks over the last three weeks, but the Temple defense ranks dead last in Defensive Havoc.
For the season, the Owls have recorded just 15 sacks and 36 tackles for loss while consistently lacking an effective pass rush needed to create problems for opposing quarterbacks.
Defensively, UTSA should live in the backfield against a Temple offense that has averaged just 96.6 rushing yards per game and surrendered 29 sacks on the season, including 11 in the last three games.
UTSA ranks 11th nationally in Havoc and has frequently caused issues for opposing quarterbacks, highlighted by back-to-back games in which it recorded seven sacks each.
Temple has a path to scoring in this game, but the offense shouldn't be expected to go on long, methodical drives. If the Owls can't connect on chunk plays, they'll have plenty of quick possessions and punts, putting the defense back out onto the field for long stretches in this game.
I expect UTSA to possess the ball a lot in this one and for Temple’s defensive front to wear down substantially in the second half.
UTSA has surpassed its team total in four straight weeks and has scored 40 or more points three weeks in a row.
The Roadrunners are a proud group, and clinching a bowl berth in front of their home fans has to be their focus. I see value in UTSA eclipsing its team total of 36.5 here.
Pick: UTSA Team Total Over 36.5 (Play to 37.5)
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Purdue vs. Michigan State Pick & Best Bet
By Greg Waddell
The Michigan State Spartans (4-6, 2-5 Big Ten) will take on the Purdue Boilermakers (1-9, 0-7) in Spartan Stadium on Saturday, Nov. 22, at 8 p.m. ET on FOX.
The Boilermakers have lost nine consecutive games; all hope is lost for this season. Beyond that, there are questions on what Purdue's football staff will look like next season. Head coach Ryan Walters may feel he is coaching for his job this week.
Michigan State has also fallen off a cliff, losing six of their last seven contests. The young Spartan offense hasn't developed as many fans hoped, but there is still plenty to play for as Michigan State attempts to become bowl-eligible.
Michigan State enters this Week 13 contest as a 13.5-point favorite on the spread, while the over/under sits at 47.5
So, where's the betting value here? Let's dive into my Michigan State vs. Purdue predictions and college football picks for Saturday.
Purdue Boilermakers
Purdue fans could not have imagined this season would go this poorly.
Against four top-20 opponents (Notre Dame, Oregon, Ohio State and Penn State), Purdue has been outscored by a total of 195-17.
Now, a blowout loss counts the same as a one-point loss in the record books, but Purdue is a long way from playing competitive football against quality opponents.
The brutal schedule has made its winnable game opportunities more critical, though. We have seen Purdue play inspired football a handful of times in Big Ten, despite their season effectively being over for a month.
The Boilermakers took both Illinois and Northwestern to Overtime before falling short.
Purdue's only area of semi-successful play has been its rushing attack. Purdue ranks 64th in the nation at Rush Success Rate, and leaning on running back Devin Mockobee has been a successful formula.
Mockobee is averaging 5.7 yards per carry on the year, and he will need a hefty workload this week to keep Purdue in the game with a Michigan State team looking to clinch a bowl appearance.
Michigan State Spartans
Michigan State is an opponent that Purdue should be able to hang with if past precedent holds. The Spartans have been a disaster against teams of all shapes and sizes during Big Ten play, outside of a win over Iowa a few weeks ago.
Like Purdue, the only area in which Michigan State does well on offense is its rushing attack, which ranks 52nd in the country in Rush Success Rate. The two-headed combo of KayRon Lynch-Adams and Nate Carter have a pick-your-poison feel, but both have been inconsistent week-to-week.
Defensively, it used to be the rushing defense that Michigan State held its hat on, but that has changed as of late. The Spartans still rank 31st nationally in Rush Success Rate Allowed, but Illinois wore them down last week on the ground. Lead back Josh McCray ran nine times for 61 yards and three touchdowns, part of an all-around day of 138 yards rushing on 31 carries.
Mockobee has more upside as a rusher than McCray, and Purdue would be wise to lean on their star player repeatedly to control this game.
As all Michigan State games seem to do, this game may come down to Aidan Chiles' turnovers at the quarterback spot. Chiles has thrown 11 picks to just 10 touchdowns.
Chiles finally cleaned up his act last week, but it should be taken as a major red flag that Chiles avoided turnovers, and Michigan State still lost by 22 points to an Illinois team that Purdue took to Overtime.
Purdue vs. Michigan State Prediction
While it is hard to trust either of these teams, it is even harder to see Michigan State winning a game by two or more touchdowns.
The only opponent the Spartans have created separation against all year was Prairie View, and Purdue has perked up against the teams it has played this month that aren't monsters.
Michigan State may win, but Purdue will make things interesting.
Pick: Purdue +13.5
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UNLV vs. San Jose State Pick & Best Bet
By Joshua Nunn
The UNLV Rebels (8-2, 4-1 Mountain West) are on the road this week to take on the San Jose State Spartans (6-4, 3-3) in Mountain West Conference action on Friday, Nov. 22. Kickoff is set for 10 p.m. ET, and the game will be broadcast on FS1.
UNLV enters this contest as a 7.5-point favorite with a 61.5-point over/under.
The Rebels seek to keep pace atop the Mountain West Conference standings. They need to win out and get some help to make the conference championship game.
San Jose State is looking to rebound from a brutal loss last week against Boise State.
Let's get into my UNLV vs. San Jose State predictions and college football picks for Friday, Nov. 22.
UNLV Rebels
UNLV is coming off a convincing home win last week against San Diego State, though there were some concerning elements to the game that we saw play out.
We saw UNLV move the ball up and down the field against the Aztecs all night, racking up 515 total yards and 26 first downs. The defense was locked in for most of the first three quarters as UNLV built a 35-6 lead.
However, UNLV's red-zone offense was concerning. The Rebs had “1st and goal” three times inside the 5-yard line and could not punch it across.
Lack of execution did not cost UNLV in this game, but it could cost them down the line.
San Jose State Spartans
San Jose State is fresh off a disastrous 42-21 home loss against Boise State last week.
San Jose State led the game 14-0 and could consistently extend drives and move the ball against the Broncos. The run defense held its own in the trenches, and SJSU had the lead in the third quarter.
Boise State would score the next four touchdowns, the last a pick-six to seal the win and cost San Jose State spread backers the cover in brutal fashion.
The Spartans want to rebound and finish their conference schedule strong before a home date with Stanford in their season finale.
UNLV vs. San Jose State Prediction
This game feels like it will feature a lot of yards and scoring chances, coupled with inefficient red-zone play and missed opportunities.
So, I'm going to play the under in this game.
San Jose State has implemented the “Spread-N-Shred” offense under head coach Ken Niumatalolo, and Year 1 of it has to be considered a resounding success.
The Spartans have been much more competitive than expected, and even while battling quarterback controversy, this offense has piled up passing yards.
Emmett Brown and Walker Eget have thrown for over 1,600 yards each, and receiver Nick Nash has 95 receptions and 14 touchdowns. The offensive line protects well, and the ground game has, at times, been effective. What has been interesting with San Jose State is that they are not scoring a lot of points due to several specific factors, of which I believe UNLV will take advantage.
San Jose State has successfully moved the ball between the 20s, but it has struggled when the field gets condensed in the red zone.
The unit has only cashed in touchdowns on 21-of-34 trips inside the red zone and has been plagued by untimely turnovers and failed fourth-down conversions each of the last several weeks.
For all of the excitement that the dynamic San Jose State offense brings, it is now lining up against a group of ballhawks and the UNLV secondary should provide challenges.
The Rebs have 16 interceptions and rank in the top 50 nationally in both Defensive EPA Per Pass and Pass Play Success Rate allowed. This is likely the best coverage unit the Spartans have faced all season, and I would expect guys like Johnathan Baldwin and Jalen Catalon to be locked in on Nash.
UNLV ranks 38th nationally in Defensive Havoc, and its front seven has registered 30 sacks and 69 tackles for a loss on the season. While San Jose State has not surrendered many sacks this year, the pressure has disrupted designed pass plays, resulting in scramble situations and throwaways.
Offensively, UNLV and its “Go-Go” offense have operated similarly in that they have had no issues moving the ball between the 20s but struggle badly in the red zone.
We loved the Rebels last week here at Action Network, and they covered -20.5, but the red-zone offense was terrible to watch and has been a pattern for the Rebs all season.
UNLV has only scored touchdowns on 29-of-58 red-zone trips and has kicked an astonishing 19 red-zone field goals this year.
San Jose State allows touchdowns on 62% of red-zone trips and grades out 48th nationally in Defensive Finishing Drives. Until I see UNLV consistently execute in the red zone, I cannot trust this unit to cash in for touchdowns.
I imagine the Rebs do not want to get into a shootout here; however, Vegas has operated at a slower pace this year overall.
UNLV wants to run the ball, while the San Jose State front seven should oblige the unit and provide enough resistance to limit explosives and make UNLV work for yards. The Spartans rank in the top 60 nationally in Defensive EPA Per Rush and Rush Play Explosiveness allowed.
It’s a game where you would expect many points between the “Go-Go” and the “Spread-N-Shred,” but inefficiencies in the red zone continue to show for both offenses.
Expect plenty of yards and a lack of execution in the red zone — plug your nose and take the under.
Pick: Under 61
