Duke vs North Carolina Odds
| Duke Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10.5 -110 | 52.5 -110o / -110u | +340 |
| North Carolina Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10.5 -110 | 52.5 -110o / -110u | -450 |
It's time to look at the Duke vs. North Carolina odds and find a prediction for Saturday, November 11.
We’ve got ourselves a Victory Bell matchup in which the Duke Blue Devils head down Tobacco Road to take on the North Carolina Tar Heels.
Despite a win last week over Wake Forest, Duke is going through some hard times. The loss of starting quarterback Riley Leonard has seriously hampered the Blue Devils, who had lost two in a row prior to their narrow home victory over the Demon Deacons last week.
The Tar Heels have also lost two out of their last three, with the lone victory coming last week in a nonconference game against Campbell — a 59-7 throttling at Kenan Memorial.
Where does the betting value lie in this matchup? Let's dive in.
Duke Blue Devils
Prior to Leonard going down, the Blue Devils' story was one of the more interesting ones in college football. Predominantly a basketball school, Duke was starting to make its name as a football program.
Head coach Mike Elko turns to freshman quarterback Grayson Loftis to make his second consecutive start on Saturday. Loftis didn’t exactly have the most productive game last week, completing 36% of his passes, throwing for 86 yards and an interception.
There’s such a small sample size from Loftis that we don’t know what to expect from him each week.
His performance against Wake Forest leaves much to be desired, considering UNC is a vastly superior team. He did form a decent connection with junior receiver Jordan Moore, who had exactly half of Loftis’ passing yards.
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One thing we can be certain of — Duke will run the ball. The tandem of Jordan Waters and Jaquez Moore has been a shining spot for the Blue Devils, each averaging 5.6 yards per carry, with Waters getting most of the volume.
There’s definitely a chance for explosive plays out of this backfield, but Duke’s comes in at just 83rd nationally in terms of Rushing Success Rate.
Defensively, the Blue Devils were exceptional toward the beginning of the season, but have sort of fallen off since. Through the Notre Dame loss on Sept. 30 — the same game Leonard suffered a high ankle sprain — Duke was allowing just 11 points per game. Since then, the average has ballooned to 21.
Duke is around the middle of the pack at stopping the run, with a ranking of 66th in Success Rate.
Linebacker Tre Freeman is a star on the defense, leading the team in total tackles, followed by defensive tackle Aeneas Peebles, with six tackles for loss.
The Devils don’t really rush the passer a whole lot, as Peebles leads the team with three sacks.
North Carolina Tar Heels
Of course, when talking about North Carolina, it all starts with Drake Maye.
A projected top-10 pick in next year's NFL Draft, the quarterback is having another stellar season, completing 66% of his passes for nearly 3,000 yards and 20 touchdowns. He's added another six scores on the ground.
The Tar Heels' passing game ranks 33rd in Success Rate and 31st in PPA.
The wealth has been spread in Chapel Hill with three (almost four) receivers over 400 yards. J.J. Jones, Bryson Nesbit and Tez Walker each average more than 15 yards per catch and are all excellent at creating separation.
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Running back Omarion Hampton has been a star for this team. The sophomore has the fourth-most rushing yards in the nation with 1,067 while averaging 6.1 yards per carry and scoring 12 touchdowns. He’s also managed to rush for more than 100 yards in his last four games and has two touchdowns in each of the last two weeks.
Because of the efficiency of Hampton and backup British Brooks, the Tar Heels are ranked ninth in Rushing Success Rate and 15th in PPA.
The defense leaves a lot to be desired. In back-to-back losses to Virginia and Georgia Tech, the defense completely fell apart. It surrendered 32 points to Virginia and 46 to Georgia Tech.
The Tar Heels are ranked 123rd in Defensive Passing Success Rate and 94th in PPA. Against the run, they’re 93rd in Success Rate and 94th in PPA. Overall, not very good numbers.
UNC does have some legitimate players on defense. Linebacker Cedric Gray is a monster, leading the team in tackles and forced fumbles while ranking second in tackles for loss and sacks.
In the secondary, Alijah Huzzie leads the team in interceptions with three.
Duke vs North Carolina
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Duke and North Carolina match up statistically:
Duke Offense vs. North Carolina Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 83 | 93 | |
| Line Yards | 78 | 92 | |
| Pass Success | 64 | 51 | |
| Havoc | 31 | 43 | |
| Finishing Drives | 38 | 19 | |
| Quality Drives | 69 | 42 | |
North Carolina Offense vs. Duke Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 9 | 66 | |
| Line Yards | 19 | 94 | |
| Pass Success | 33 | 17 | |
| Havoc | 18 | 34 | |
| Finishing Drives | 37 | 23 | |
| Quality Drives | 6 | 10 |  |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 85 | 49 |
| PFF Coverage | 11 | 32 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 112 | 109 |
| Middle 8 | 39 | 5 |
| Seconds per Play | 29.1 (102) | 23.7 (14) |
| Rush Rate | 58.8% (21) | 53.3% (77) |
Duke vs North Carolina
Betting Pick & Prediction
This spread sits at 14.5, and I think it’s justified. Duke is currently going through some struggles without Leonard, while UNC picked itself back up after a rough stretch.
If Leonard, who suffered a left toe injury against Louisville two weeks ago, could have played in this bout, we might be in for a much more competitive game. However, this could be more of a bloodbath without him.
UNC’s defense isn’t exactly the standard, but it has a handful of players who can cause Havoc. For Loftis, the lights might be too bright in just his second start after the first one left a lot to be desired.
Both Maye and Hampton are UNC's stars, and the Tar Heels' receivers are big-time playmakers. I expect Hampton to have his usual 100-yard game with Duke's recent struggles on defense, particularly the Devils' inability to stop the run.
Pick: North Carolina -14.5 (Play to -17)
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