Collin Wilson's Week 8 College Football Picks
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that Action Network senior writer Collin Wilson is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 12:45 p.m. | |
  | 3:30 p.m. | |
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Week 8 of the college football season is upon us, and after a memorable Week 7, we're back with another week that should follow a similar path.
Two monster matchups in the SEC highlight the week ahead: No. 5 Georgia vs. No. 1 Texas and No. 7 Alabama vs. No. 11 Tennessee.
The Georgia vs. Texas game marks the second consecutive week with a top-five clash, following last week's thriller between then-No. 2 Ohio State and then-No. 3 Oregon.
Meanwhile, Alabama vs. Tennessee is the second gigantic college football rivalry gracing our schedules in as many weeks. Last week, we had the Red River Rivalry. This week, it's the Third Saturday in October.
Along with those two massive games, I'm jumping on South Carolina vs. Oklahoma in the early window.
Check out my full Action Network betting card, including college football odds and picks for Week 8, below.
South Carolina vs. Oklahoma Week 8 Pick
The South Carolina Gamecocks (3-3, 1-3 SEC) head to Norman on Saturday to take on the Oklahoma Sooners (4-2, 1-2) in an SEC showdown. The game is set to kick off at 12:45 p.m. ET on SEC Network.
The SEC continues to pump out the most exhilarating games of each weekend, as South Carolina nearly upset Alabama in Week 7.
An upset victory over Kentucky in Week 2 was promising, but three consecutive conference losses have South Carolina in desperation mode with Texas A&M, Missouri and Clemson waiting in the second half of the schedule.
Oklahoma has yet to field a team at full health since an opening win over Temple. The Sooners enter Week 8 with only 2 losses on the schedule, as the defense has been the driving force behind 4 victories.
For Oklahoma to get back in the SEC race, injuries must be relieved on the offensive side of the ball.
Oklahoma will play host at Gaylord Family – Oklahoma Memorial Stadium, where oddsmakers have installed the Sooners as a -1.5 favorite with a total of 41.5.
So, where does the betting value lie for this conference clash? Let's break down my South Carolina vs. Oklahoma predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Oct. 19.
South Carolina Gamecocks
Beamer will return to Norman after serving as Oklahoma's tight ends coach and assistant head coach from 2018-20.
Dating back to the coach's time as an assistant at South Carolina, Beamer is familiar with Venables' defenses due to rivalry games against Clemson.
There's a case to be made that the Gamecocks have been a better defense than the Sooners thus far, ranking as a top-15 Havoc team in the nation. Only LSU has forced more fumbles, while 44 tackles for loss places South Carolina in the top 15 of all FBS defenses.
The struggles for the Gamecocks have come on the offensive side of the ball for coordinator Dowell Loggains.
Quarterback LaNorris Sellers has commanded an RPO offense that rushes with inside zone read concepts on 64% of snaps.
South Carolina ranks outside the 80 in rushing analytics, but a near-dead-last number in offensive momentum killer — a measurement of an offense's ability to create a methodical drive — keeps the Gamecocks' scoring chances low. Interceptions, fumbles, missed field goals, sacks, turnover on downs and 10-plus yard penalties all play a part in the ranking.
No offense has allowed more sacks than South Carolina at 26, while eight fumbles on the season is one of the sixth-worst numbers in FBS.
With a Havoc-Allowed rank of 131st, South Carolina has yet to play a game without crucial mistakes on offensive possessions.
The good news for Sellers is his ability to hit the explosive pass, as the Gamecocks rank top-20 in Passing EPA.
Oklahoma Sooners
Offensive injuries have dogged the Sooners all season, specifically at wide receiver position.
Quarterback Jackson Arnold began the season as the starting signal-caller behind an offensive line that fielded five new starters. With plans to redshirt Arnold for the remainder of the season, the offense is completely in the hands of freshman Michael Hawkins Jr.
The results have been subpar thus far, as Hawkins has struggled to move the chains through the air and on the ground.
Is that John Elway? No, it’s Michael Hawkins Jr. with the scramble, leap and twist midair!
— The Transfer Portal CFB (@TPortalCFB) September 28, 2024
Along with running back Jovantae Barnes, Hawkins has had minimal success running inside zone behind a Sooners offensive line that's 120th in Line Yards.
Barnes has created no separation in 71 attempts, averaging just 2.8 yards after first contact.
Oklahoma ranks 133rd in creating explosive plays, a product of numerous injuries on the outside. Wide receiver Deion Burks will look to "defy the odds" in a return this week, along with Jalil Farooq. Both would be explosive elements missing from the Sooners offense.
On the other side, the nickel defense has been the backbone of the team through the first half, generating high marks against opposing rush attempts and a top-20 rank in pass-rush productivity.
Linebacker Danny Stutsman continues to lead the defense in tackles, while edge rushers R Mason Thomas and Ethan Downs have supplied 28 pressures.
Safeties Robert Spears-Jennings and Billy Bowman Jr. have also been elite in stopping second-level rushers from creating explosives, combining for 22 stops, per PFF.
South Carolina vs. Oklahoma Prediction
The Oklahoma roster is well aware of the disappointment surrounding the team through the first half of the season. They held a players-only meeting on Sunday to get the roster on the same page.
The bigger question is whether or not the Sooners defense can shut down the RPO attack from Sellers and the Gamecocks offense.
Oklahoma has performed above the national average against inside zone, logging a successful play on 55% of opponent attempts.
Image via SportSource Analytics.
The South Carolina defense has not been as fortunate in defending inside zone, generating a 51% Success Rate with a higher EPA rate than the Oklahoma defense.
The Sooners have also been elite in playing behind the line of scrimmage, preserving a top-15 rank in tackles for loss while matching South Carolina's total of nine forced fumbles.
Oklahoma's edge in defending inside zone will be the difference in a game without many points.
The Action Network projection for this game is Oklahoma at a touchdown if all wide receiver options are healthye. Monitor the status of Burks and Farooq, as each could add an element to the offense that hasn't been available to Hawkins in weeks.
Pick: Oklahoma -1.5 (Play to -3)
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Alabama vs. Tennessee Week 8 Pick
The Third Saturday in October has finally arrived, signifying the return of the rivalry between the Alabama Crimson Tide (5-1, 2-1 SEC) and the Tennessee Volunteers (5-1, 2-1).
Alabama holds a 59-39-7 all-time lead since the series began in 1901, but revenge is on the table after the last time the Crimson Tide entered Neyland Stadium. Tennessee had lost 15 consecutive games in this series until 2022 when the Volunteers beat the Tide in a game that saw 101 total points.
Both Alabama and Tennessee are 2-1 in the conference standings, and the loser of this game will fall to 5-2 overall and to the back of the pack in the SEC standings.
The most fascinating aspect of the game will be the Crimson Tide defense against the Volunteers passing offense, as both units have struggled in losing efforts this season.
Alabama enters as a -3 favorite with the over/under at 56.5.
Let's dive into my Alabama vs. Tennessee predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Oct. 19.
Alabama Crimson Tide
Alabama has played in consecutive one-possession games in the SEC.
The Crimson Tide defense survived a furious comeback from Georgia, only to succumb to the Vanderbilt offense the following week. The struggles continued once more in a Week 7 close call against South Carolina as a three-touchdown favorite.
When sifting through the box scores for answers about the struggles with the Commodores and Gamecocks, there are a number of common themes.
Both Vanderbilt and South Carolina won the time-of-possession battle, each logging more first downs than the Crimson Tide. Both opponents combined to convert third and fourth downs on 21-of-35 attempts.
The Crimson Tide defense allowed 11 passes of at least 15 yards to quarterbacks Diego Pavia and LaNorris Sellers. The ability to stop the explosive pass had been an issue long before Vanderbilt beat Alabama. Georgia and Carson Beck diced up the secondary for nine explosive passes in an attempted comeback.
The frustrations with the defense were visible against Vanderbilt, as captain Malachi Moore had a number of acts that required an apology.
Malachi Moore is gonna be answering questions about this all spring
— Thor Nystrom (@thorku) October 6, 2024
Defensive coordinator Kane Wommack's 3-3-5 has seen a decline from most defensive backs over those contests, including Moore, but a trio of players have held steady.
Linebackers Deontae Lawson, Jihaad Campbell and slot cornerback DeVonta Smith have been critical in during the past eight quarters of Alabama football.
The Crimson Tide run one of the highest rates of man coverage in the nation at 38%, well above the rate Wommack called in three seasons at South Alabama.
The positive comes with the Alabama offense, as quarterback Jalen Milroe has not created a turnover-worthy play on a deep pass since the start of the 2023 season.
Wide receiver Ryan Williams now leads the team in targets, doubling the number needed to be considered an explosive target at 4.2 yards per route run.
Alabama ranks top-10 in Passing Success Rate and explosives, indicating that DeBoer is ready to get into a haymaker boxing match with any offense in the country.
Tennessee Volunteers
The biggest news from Tennessee head coach Josh Heupel's weekly press conference was the status of middle linebacker Keenan Pili. The sixth-year senior led the team in tackles and stops while providing one of the highest rush defense grades on the roster but will miss the rest of the season with an ACL injury.
Not only is this a blow to the Tennessee defense from an analytics standpoint, but Pili was the "green dot" helmet communication for defensive coordinator Tim Banks.
Bigger questions remain on the Tennessee offense, as the explosive nature of the passing game has hit a sour spot over the past few weekends.
Quarterback Nico Iamaleava has nearly as many turnover-worthy plays as big-time throws, failing to record a passing touchdown since Week 4 against Oklahoma.
Questions persist as to whether or not the book is out on how to defend Heupel's wide splits spread attack, as Arkansas defensive coordinator Travis Williams stifled the Volunteers with a 3-3 star scheme.
NICO DIDN’T KNOW WHAT TO DO AND ARKANSAS IS STORMING THE FIELD
— Unnecessary Roughness (@UnnecRoughness) October 6, 2024
The Volunteers have fallen outside the top 100 in Passing EPA, a measurement of explosives through the air.
That number falls to 126th in passing downs, a byproduct of Iamaleava's struggles with pressure. In 178 dropbacks by Tennessee, Iamaleava has seen pressure on 46 passing attempts with only six completions.
The sophomore has failed to record a big-time throw in a crowded pocket, with a massive drop to 35% in adjusted completion rate.
Differing coverages have been an issue for Tennessee as well, with man and Cover 1 giving the Volunteers the most trouble in downfield passing.
Alabama vs. Tennessee Prediction
DeBoer and Heupel are no strangers to each other, each hailing from South Dakota with plenty of respect shared between the two offensive masterminds.
Heupel's offenses have never been successful against man coverage dating back to his first season in Knoxville. Tennessee has posted a low 44% Success Rate against man with a negative value in expected points.
Not only does Alabama play an extensive amount of man coverage, but Wommack also pivots to a Cover 1 look that has limited Iamaleava to a 27% Success Rate this season. Outside of scheme, Alabama's linebacker play is crucial for success against Tennessee's passing game.
The Volunteers' wide split-spread offense utilizes the entire field from sideline to sideline. This scheme forces opposing outside linebackers to declare coverage assignments pre-snap.
Defenders that lack the skill or size at the outside linebacker position are often burned by Squirrel White and Chas Nimrod out of the slot. However, Alabama fields the fourth- and 15th-ranked individual defenders in man coverage in Campbell and Lawson.
Action Network's projected spread calls for Alabama -2.5, providing no value in the market with respect to the side.
However, there are many advantages for the Crimson Tide going into this game, from outstanding linebacker play in coverages that trouble Tennessee to a new signal-caller for the Volunteers defense.
Expect the offensive struggles to continue for Tennessee, while the defense could be in for a rude awakening.
The Volunteers managed to face a team without a deep passing threat at quarterback until the Arkansas game. Taylen Green posted 10 passing plays ofat least 15-yards, followed up by another seven from Florida in Week 7.
Expect Milroe's elite deep passing to find Williams for some explosive scores.
Pick: Alabama -3 or Better · Tennessee Under 27.5 or Better
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Georgia vs. Texas Week 8 Pick
The college football world will have all eyes tuned in when two top-5 teams in the Texas Longhorns (6-0, 2-0 SEC) and Georgia Bulldogs (5-1, 3-1) meet in Darrell K Royal – Texas Memorial Stadium on Saturday, Oct. 19. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC.
The Longhorns will play host to the Bulldogs 1 week after blowing out rival Oklahoma in the Red River Showdown.
Head coach Steve Sarkisian's journey to creating an Alabama-esque dynasty in Austin is in full swing after making the national semifinal last season.
Texas has dominated the biggest names on its schedule away from home, including the Sooners in Dallas and Michigan in Ann Arbor.
The narrative has been different for Georgia head coach Kirby Smart, who has struggled in two road games thus far. Georgia survived Kentucky in Lexington by a 1 point in Week 3, but a full 2 weeks to prepare did not help the Bulldogs in Tuscaloosa.
The Crimson Tide raced to a 28-0 lead in the first quarter — too much for Georgia, which ended up winning the final 3 quarters, 34-13.
Texas enters as a -4.5 favorite with an over/under of 56.
Let's take a look at my Georgia vs. Texas predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Oct. 19.
Georgia Bulldogs
There has been a slew of negativity around the Bulldogs defense since their Week 5 loss at Alabama.
Georgia has dealt with injuries and inefficiency at all levels, from producing minimal pass rush to linebackers who are overmatched in coverage.
Smart was keen on playing up the injuries to the defensive line in his weekly presser, mentioning interiors Christen Miller and Warren Brinson's struggles to stay healthy.
There could be good news from an injury perspective this week, as edge Mykel Williams continues to push toward full speed. Georgia desperately needs the junior to anchor a pass rush that has not generated a single quarterback hurry in the past two games against SEC competition.
The Bulldogs offense has struggled to find playmakers for coordinator Mike Bobo. They rank outside the top 50 in both Rushing Success Rate and Line Yards, so there hasn't been any push in the trench.
Florida transfer Trevor Etienne has seen a small uptick in yards after first contact but has created only two explosive runs in his previous 39 attempts.
The passing attack has also experienced plenty of setbacks for quarterback Carson Beck.
Keyhole throw from Carson Beck. Phew. pic.twitter.com/k6lYqsWwvZ
— Cory (@fakecorykinnan) October 16, 2024
Beck has seen a spike in his turnover-worthy play rate with the longest time to throw of his career at 2.6 seconds.
Slot Dominic Lovett has generated the most targets in the passing game, but lockdown safeties have created a 38% contested catch rate.
Beck has yet to find a rhythm with any other targets, as Dillon Bell and Lawson Luckie boast subpar marks in yards per route run. Arian Smith has emerged as an explosive target at wideout but ranks second nationally in dropped passes.
Texas Longhorns
The Longhorns have quietly ascended through the 2024 campaign to the penthouse of the AP Top 25 and Action Network's Betting Power Ratings.
Most circles have Texas as the odds-on favorite to win the National Championship thanks to impressive victories over a pair of top-20 teams.
If there's a fly in the ointment for Sarkisian's fourth season, it can't be found in the analytics but rather a softer strength of schedule.
The Texas defense has faced one of the easiest schedules of offenses in the nation, including Michigan and Oklahoma teams that have all but abandoned the passing game.
The secondary ranks at the top of the leaderboard in numerous categories against the pass, from coverage to limiting explosives.
Coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski has called all the right plays when opposing offenses threaten to score. In 20 opponent possessions to cross the Longhorns' 40-yard line, teams have left with an average of 1.6 points.
The area of focus on defense comes with a fresh interior that allowed a high Success Rate to the rushing attacks of Colorado State and Mississippi State.
Unlike the defense, the offense has been well-tested against top-15 defenses, including Michigan and Oklahoma. Texas racked up 58% of available yards against the Wolverines, posting two first downs on six of its 10 drives.
The numbers were even more impressive at Red River, as the Longhorns posted a yards-per-play mark double that of the Sooners.
With the top-ranked pass-blocking unit up front, Quinn Ewers returned under center against Oklahoma to complete 28-of-32 passing attempts for 199 yards, a touchdown and an interception.
Georgia vs. Texas Prediction
Texas continues to play lights-out against a strength of schedule that ranks 82nd. The Longhorns have yet to face an offense in the top 50, per SP+, suggesting caution to a leaky run defense.
Texas ranks just outside the top 25 in Opponent Rushing Success Rate, Stuff Rate and PFF tackle grading.
Georgia will have an advantage in rushing attempts, ranking 33rd in Success Rate against a strength of schedule of seventh nationally.
Etienne will be used on inside zone runs, a run concept Texas has posted a lukewarm 51% Success Rate against.
There are advantages for Beck against Texas' quarters coverage, as the quarterback possesses a 58% Success Rate while generating an explosive on 18% of attempts against that coverage.
The Longhorns run a heavy amount of quarters at a mid-FBS efficiency level, so look for Beck to target short-range options.
Health and experience are all that's lacking on Smart's defense, and both are improving week after week.
The Bulldogs could also be in luck this week from a situational spot perspective.
Texas won the Red River Showdown against Oklahoma, a game the Longhorns have struggled to follow. Texas lost to Oklahoma State in the 2021 post-Red River game and pulled off narrow victories as heavy favorites over Iowa State in 2022 and Houston a season ago.
The Action Network Power Ratings call for Texas to be favored by a touchdown.
The news of Texas wide receiver Isaiah Bond's positive injury status boosted the market, as Georgia moved to a 5-point underdog. More importantly, though, it moved the first-half line to a field goal.
Georgia has been tested already, so look for its experience and better health to play a factor in the first two quarters of this game.
Pick: Georgia 1H +3
