College Football Predictions, Picks for Conference Championships
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
College football conference championship week is officially upon us.
With nine games on this week's slate, it's far from your typical college football week. However, all nine games feature a spread under six points with five of those coming in right around a field goal.
It all starts with three games on Friday night. I have a pick for the premier game of the night between the UNLV Rebels and Boise State Broncos in the Mountain West Championship, which has major College Football Playoff implications.
Then, on Saturday, I'll be betting all four power conference title games:
- Big 12 Championship: Iowa State vs. Arizona State
- SEC Championship: Georgia vs. Texas
- Big Ten Championship: Penn State vs. Oregon
- ACC Championship: Clemson vs. SMU
There's plenty on the line this week, so let's dive right into my college football picks and NCAAF predictions for the conference championship games in Week 15.
UNLV vs. Boise State Prediction
Two teams with the shortest preseason odds to win the Mountain West will compete for the conference championship on Friday when the UNLV Rebels (10-2, 6-1 MWC) meet the Boise State Broncos (11-1, 7-0).
Friday's kickoff is set for 8 p.m. ET on FOX.
The Rebels and Broncos will meet for the second consecutive season, but with a small change in venue: They will play on the blue turf of Albertsons Stadium.
After sweeping the regular-season conference schedule, Boise State will play host for the sixth time since 2013's inaugural game.
The Broncos emerged victorious over the Rebels in Week 9, 29-24. They ended the game on a 14-play drive that lasted over 8 minutes before victory formation.
UNLV will play in Albertsons Stadium for the first time since 2016, where no precipitation is expected in freezing temperatures.
Boise State opened the market as a 5.5-point favorite, but steam on UNLV brought the number to +4. The over/under is 57.5.
Let's dive into my UNLV vs. Boise State predictions and college football picks for Friday, Dec. 6.
UNLV Rebels
Brennan Marion's Go-Go offense never slowed despite losing a starting quarterback entering conference play.
Campbell transfer quarterback Hajj-Malik Williams took over starting duties in Week 5 against Fresno State, compiling one of the best statistical profiles for any Group of 5 signal caller.
Williams finished the season with 26 all-purpose touchdowns, generating nearly 900 rushing yards and another 1,735 from the passing game. Even more impressive is the lack of mistakes in critical situations, as Williams has just one turnover-worthy play in 80 dropbacks that saw pressure.
Combined with wide receiver Ricky White, the Rebels rank among the top 10 offenses in Quality Drives.
The three-man nickel defense has been a staple of head coach Barry Odom through multiple positions in the SEC. The Rebels rank in the top 10 nationally in havoc thanks to forced fumbles.
Yet, despite ranking top 25 nationally in Line Yards and PFF's Coverage grades, UNLV has allowed too many explosives while struggling to hold up in the extended red zone.
The Rebels allowed four explosive runs to Boise State earlier this year, and the Broncos capitalized on their scoring opportunities.
UNLV has allowed 95 opponent possessions to cross the Rebels' 40-yard line, the highest total in the nation, while allowing 4.4 points per attempt.
Boise State Broncos
The return of offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter was crucial to the success of an offense with the best running back in the nation.
Junior Ashton Jeanty ends the regular season with 2,287 rushing yards and 26 touchdowns. The Broncos run the ball at one of the highest rates in the nation on first down, ranking in the top 20 nationally in Success Rate thanks to Jeanty's 5.4 yards after first contact.
Boise State has been tough, ranking 13th nationally in Standard Downs Success Rate and top 10 in offensive momentum killer rate.
But the Broncos must stay on schedule because they can't generate explosives in Passing Downs. Quarterback Maddux Madsen has one of the best touchdown-to-interception ratios in the Mountain West, but he's generated twice as many turnover-worthy plays than big-time throws.
Coordinator Erik Chinander's 3-2-6 defense has held up better against the rush than the pass despite working out of dime packages. Boise State ranks 82nd nationally in Defensive Pass Efficiency and 98th in Passing Explosiveness allowed. Those numbers drop in passing downs, as the Broncos have the worst rank in allowing explosives when opposing offenses get behind schedule.
The biggest issue is tackling. The Broncos rank 132nd nationally in PFF's Tackling grades.
UNLV vs. Boise State Pick
According to our Action Network calculations, Albertsons Stadium will give Boise State a 2.8-pointhome-field advantage.
The projected spread falls right at the Broncos -4, but there is reason to believe UNLV will have a better showing than in the Week 9 head-to-head matchup.
The Rebels lost the game by five points but finished with a 61% post-game win expectancy. The Broncos were beaten from an overall yards-per-play perspective, generating field position through special teams while failing to create an explosive drive.
Williams spoke exclusively about the differences between Week 9 and the present, specifically on improving protection from the offensive line.
Pressures have steadily declined since the Rebels' midseason, while run blocking has improved. Jai'Den Thomas has gone over 100 yards rushing in three of the last four games for UNLV.
The Go-Go offense can include half a dozen run concepts from multiple personnel, as Man, Power and pulling linemen have generated Success Rates higher than 60%. Boise State has a low 42% Success Rate against man-run concepts, an avenue UNLV should be able to expose.
The Broncos' defense ranks outside the top 100 nationally in two critical areas: creating contested catches and broken tackles allowed.
UNLV improved its tackling this year and limited Jeanty earlier this year — the Rebels had just nine missed tackles in the Week 9 head-to-head matchup. Jeanty's 40 missed tackles forced over the next three games (San Diego State, Nevada, San Jose State) makes that Week 9 stat all the more impressive.
Boise State runs a heavy amount of outside zone with Jeanty, a critical run concept to the UNLV defense. The Rebels have a high 59% Success Rate against outside zone this season.
Pick: UNLV +4
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Iowa State vs. Arizona State Prediction
The Iowa State Cyclones (10-2, 7-2 Big 12) and Arizona State Sun Devils (10-2, 7-2) meet in the Big 12 Championship on Saturday, Dec. 7 at 12 p.m. ET on ABC.
A 5-game winning streak to end the season boosted Arizona State from the last-place pick in the preseason to AT&T Stadium.
Head coach Kenny Dillingham's team got hot at the right time after winning 6 games by one possession or less this year.
Iowa State took a different route and entered November undefeated in the penthouse of the Big 12. Consecutive losses to Texas Tech (23-22) and Kansas (45-36) deflated the Cyclones before a 3-game sweep earned them a title game birth.
Iowa State opened as a -1 favorite, but early betting has since made Arizona State a 2-point favorite with the total at 49.5. So, where does the betting value lie in this Big 12 title game?
Let's dive into my Iowa State vs. Arizona State predictions and college football picks for the Big 12 Championship on Saturday, Dec. 7.
Iowa State Cyclones
Strong safety Malik Verdon's return to practice is positive news for Iowa State, and he's expected to play in the Big 12 Championship. The senior missed Week 14 but now has the chance to add to a tally of six passes defended.
The 3-3-5 package from head coach Matt Campbell and defensive coordinator Jon Heacock has been fantastic in defending the pass, ranking 11th in coverage grading and 13th in creating contested catches.
The run game may also be on the rebound from a health perspective, with the return of middle linebacker Caleb Bacon. The third-year Cyclone proved to be a key piece of the defense in 2023 but has not played since Week 1 against North Dakota.
Verdon and Bacon would represent two of the best tacklers at the second level of the Iowa State defense.
Quarterback Rocco Becht saw a dip in explosive numbers in Iowa State's passing game. His turnover-worthy play rate has increased from 2.6% to 3.9% despite targets cutting the drop rate in half from last year.
Becht doesn't enter Arlington with the cleanest of forms over the last three games, generating seven turnover-worthy plays to just a single big-time throw.
Iowa State is elite at avoiding mistakes during offensive possessions with a Havoc Allowed rate in the top 25 and an offensive momentum killer rank of third.
Iowa State still maintained a top-35 rank in Rush and Pass EPA, as Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel have each eclipsed 2.6 yards per route run.
The rushing attack has fallen outside the top 100 in Success Rate and Line Yards, using a heavy amount of inside zone and power run concepts.
Carson Hansen has been limited to less than three yards after first contact, while Abu Sama III has as many explosives as 2023 but a severe drop in highlight yards.
Arizona State Sun Devils
Arizona State's plan on the offensive side of the ball is clear: use running back Cam Skattebo as much as possible. The senior has 248 carries with an average of 5.6 yards per tote while generating 3.9 yards after first contact.
While Skattebo has powered a top-10 Rushing Success Rate number, the trench sits 27th in Offensive Line Yards.
Quarterback Sam Leavitt won the quarterback battle in the offseason and has seen a boost to his passing numbers thanks to the threat of Skattebo.
Leavitt has seen a decrease in mistakes over his freshman season. The Michigan State transfer has protected the football in 246 dropbacks, committing just three turnovers the entire season.
The loss of leading receiver Jordyn Tyson will be critical on third downs. He was the only receiving option to have at least 10 targets on third down on the season.
When it comes to the run game, Dillingham prefers a heavy dose of outside zone, mixing in counter and power in short-yardage situations.
The Sun Devils have a top-25 rate of offensive execution in standard downs, but the offense sputters with an efficiency dip in passing downs.
On the other side of the ball, Arizona State's defense has faltered in creating chaos and tackling. Coordinator Brian Ward's 4-2-5 personnel sits just outside the top 80 in tackle grading and broken tackles allowed.
Third downs have also been troublesome for the Sun Devils, who have produced one of the worst pass rush units in FBS while maintaining a stop rank of 97th.
Iowa State vs. Arizona State Pick
Although Arizona State profiles as a run-first team, Tyson's absence leaves Leavitt without many comfortable options. Skattebo and tight end Chamon Metayer become the next targets outside of the receiver room, leaving wideout Xavier Guillory and slot Melquan Stovall as the most targeted wide receivers.
Guillory and Stovall have combined for 12 total catches over the past five games.
Iowa State's 3-3-5 stack has long tormented opponent passing attacks, ranking 13th in contested catch rate.
The biggest question for Heacock and a light defensive front is the potential for loading the box against the run, as the Cyclones have gone to a four-man front just once this season.
The great news for Iowa State is Arizona State's run concept usage. The Sun Devils run heavy outside zone with Skattebo, and the Cyclones have been fantastic against the run concept, posting a 56% Success Rate in 114 snaps against outside zone.
The Iowa State run defense has improved over the previous two games against the zone-read offenses of Kansas State and Utah. Specifically, the Wildcats were held to a 26% Success Rate on 30 rushing attempts.
A few other advantages exist for Iowa State in terms of special teams and ball protection. Arizona State owns a +11 net turnover margin this season, powered by 14 interceptions.
The other good news for the Cyclones is ASU's usage of Cover 3, a scheme Becht has produced a modest 50% Success Rate and a large 19% big play rate against.
With a positive EPA and low negative play rate against Cover 3, expect Iowa State to convert third downs frequently.
Special teams are also a factor in this game, especially with Iowa State coming off 226 hidden yards against Kansas State. The Sun Devils rank 131st in SP+ Special Teams while sitting outside the top 100 in kick and punt return defense.
Iowa State boasts a top-20 punt return unit with Noel entering the game with an average return of 15.2 yards per attempt.
Pick: Iowa State +2
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Georgia vs. Texas Prediction
A rematch is set for the SEC Championship, where Texas (11-1) will look to avenge an embarrassing home loss in Week 8 to Georgia (10-2).
The Longhorns were outplayed, and the Bulldogs were the far more physical team, especially on the defensive end.
Texas struggled in consecutive games following the loss, failing to cover against Vanderbilt, Arkansas and Kentucky.
But head coach Steve Sarkisian motivated his team, and the 'Horns responded by dominating Texas A&M in the season finale.
While Georgia has the most talented roster in college football, head coach Kirby Smart has struggled to motivate his squad. The Bulldogs have pieced together multiple lackluster efforts this year, beating Kentucky and Georgia Tech by three combined points.
Regardless of the result of this game, both teams will make the College Football Playoff.
However, the winner is expected to get a first-round bye into the Sugar Bowl.
Texas is a 2.5-point favorite on the spread with a 49.5-point over/under.
Check out my Georgia vs Texas predictions and college football picks below.
Georgia Bulldogs
Handicapping Georgia is tough.
Effort and health are general question marks, eventually producing two losses. Both losing efforts came on the road, against Ole Miss and Alabama, and the Bulldogs scored just seven first-half points in each affair.
The good news? Carson Beck is playing well again, avoiding interceptions in three consecutive contests.
Those results can be attributed to better offensive line play, as the front five has allowed fewer pressures over the past three games (19; Tennessee, UMass, and Georgia Tech) than the previous three (37; Texas, Florida, and Ole Miss).
The bad news? The Bulldog receivers can't stop dropping the ball. Georgia leads the nation in drops this year, with 36.
Coordinator Glenn Schumann has also found inconsistencies on the defensive side of the ball.
The Bulldogs allowed the Yellow Jackets to earn 70% of available yards on offense, well above the national average of 48%. Eight of 12 offensive drives earned two or more first downs, and Georgia Tech generated nine explosives on 38 passing attempts.
The Bulldogs made a statement against Texas on October 19th with 10 tackles for loss, but they only produced 13 in the past 12 quarters of play.
Havoc is down considerably for Georgia, as the Bulldogs have slipped to 74th nationally in Havoc behind a tepid pass rush. Surprisingly, opposing offenses have created methodical possessions all season, as the Bulldogs have slipped outside the top 50 in Quality Drives allowed.
Texas Longhorns
After struggling through some SEC contests, people wondered whether the Longhorns' offensive line could handle an elite front.
The Longhorns answered that against Texas A&M, averaging five yards per rush while being stuffed on only 13 of 49 attempts. The Aggies generated one sack, and the Longhorns converted eight of 16 third- and fourth-down attempts.
The protection of quarterback Quinn Ewers has been critical to Texas' success, as the quarterback has a skyrocketing turnover-worthy rate in a crowded pocket.
The former Ohio State recruit has seen a 1.7% turnover-worthy play rate skyrocket to 4.2% since last year's playoff run, recording three mistakes in the passing game against Texas A&M.
The biggest question for Ewers entering the SEC Championship is the length of the leash, as the quarterback posted seven turnover-worthy plays in the loss to Georgia. The health of tackle Kelvin Banks Jr. should be monitored after being listed as questionable on the SEC Availability Report.
Any fallout at the quarterback position should prompt the entry of backup Arch Manning, who flashed wheels in a touchdown scamper against Texas A&M.
Sarkisian will look for ball protection after the previous loss to Georgia, signaling there could be an increase in touches for running back Quintrevion Wisner. The sophomore may not be a red zone option with only three touchdowns, but he has eclipsed 340 rushing yards against the past two defensive of Texas A&M and Kentucky.
Coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski has called the plays for one of the best defenses in the nation. Texas ranks second nationally in Defensive Finishing Drives and is the top defense in limiting Quality Drives.
The Longhorns have made opponents struggle in passing downs, finishing in the top 10 in both Success Rate and EPA. Georgia converted six of 17 third-down attempts in the head-to-head matchup, an uncharacteristic showing for Texas.
Georgia vs. Texas Pick
The new Georgia offense veers toward explosive passing plays and away from establishing the run.
The Bulldogs rank 80th nationally in Line Yards, relying on the running back corps to create yardage. They're not owning the trenches in short yardage, ranking 93rd in Stuff Rate allowed.
They need to avoid passing downs to keep the pressure off Beck. But I wonder if the offensive line is overvalued after playing a few weaker defensive fronts.
The Texas defense is elite. They've allowed just one explosive drive in the past 56.
Despite the Bulldogs win in Austin, Georgia struggled in 28 passing downs with a 25% Success Rate. Turnovers and field position are volatile on a game-to-game basis, but there is no expectation that those variables will favor Georgia again.
While Texas is the play, there may be another wager with a bit more value.
Georgia has one of the worst first-quarter scoring differentials in the FBS, posting a -0.42 through the scripted portion of the game.
Texas has been the opposite through Sarkisian's play calling, averaging +7.33 in scoring differential through the first 15 minutes of games.
Pick: Texas 1Q ML (-130) · Texas -2.5 or Better
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Penn State vs. Oregon Prediction
The 2024 Big Ten Championship brings us a top-3 matchup between the No. 3 Penn State Nittany Lions (11-1, 8-1 Big Ten) and No. 1 Oregon Ducks (12-0, 9-0). Saturday's kickoff is set for 8 p.m. ET on CBS.
The Ducks have raided the Big Ten, sweeping a conference schedule that included Michigan and Ohio State. Head coach Dan Lanning rectified Pac-12 losses against rival Washington in Week 14, beating the Huskies by 4 touchdowns.
Oregon has brought bully ball to a conference that has always had pride in establishing the run in inclement weather conditions. Since the Ducks' arrival in Indianapolis, Oregon has been the toast of the Big Ten conference.
Penn State, meanwhile, will look to capture its 2nd-ever Big Ten Championship after beating Wisconsin in its only trip to Indianapolis in 2016.
Oregon enters as a 3.5-point favorite, a number that has been stagnant throughout the betting week. The over/under sits at 49.5.
Let's take a look at my Penn State vs. Oregon predictions and college football picks for the Big Ten Championship on Saturday, Dec. 7.
Penn State Nittany Lions
Penn State kept up with Ohio State in terms of available yards and overall yards per play, but a horrific showing in scoring position led to no offense touchdowns.
Offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki was the hottest name on the market before his move from Kansas to State College, but an average of 1.5 points in multiple scoring opportunities limited the Nittany Lions against the Buckeyes.
Penn State created two drives inside the 5-yard line only to come away empty-handed when Drew Allar through an interception and Kaytron Allen was stopped short multiple times.
PSU finished the regular season 15th in Offensive Finishing Drives, averaging 4.6 points on 73 drives that extended beyond the opponent's 40-yard line.
The Nittany Lions' ground attack has taken over in four games since the Ohio State loss.
Running back Nicholas Singleton has posted four touchdowns in the last three games, elevating his elusiveness to 3.5 yards after first contact.
Kotelnicki has called a wide variety of run concepts throughout the season, with power being the most explosive and efficient.
Drew Allar keeping his wits and circling back to Warren after Singleton in the flat was taken away is baller. pic.twitter.com/mk1geEZ6Ob
— Poerbler (@Poerbler) November 24, 2024
Since the Ohio State game, Allar hasn't recorded a turnover-worthy play in four consecutive games.
Tight end Tyler Warren continues to be the Swiss army knife of the offense, averaging more than three yards per route run while lining up in-line, as a slot receiver and in the wideout position.
Pressures continue to be an issue for the trench, which has allowed 17 in the past two games against Maryland and Minnesota.
Oregon Ducks
Oregon hasn't lost a game all season, with only three teams finishing within one possession. Boise State's near upset came in Week 2, as the Broncos generated a 62% Success Rate in 32 running attempts with Ashton Jeanty.
All eyes were on Eugene again in Week 7, as the Ducks were fortunate to beat Ohio State when Will Howard's slide attempt happened after time expired.
The Buckeyes generated two first downs on 6-of-11 possessions against Oregon.
Wisconsin also nearly pulled off a mid-November upset with a high 56% Success Rate on rushing attempts.
The formula against the Ducks has revolved around creating methodical drives via the ground game. Oregon ranks 42nd in Defensive Rushing Success Rate, falling to 82nd in Line Yards.
The Oregon defense has been in the middle of FBS rankings in Success Rate against various run concepts, but a rank of 53rd in broken tackles allowed has helped opposing offense generate explosives.
Lanning has excelled with his defense against the pass, generating a top-10 rank in coverage and pass rush.
Derrick Harmon has destroyed opposing offensive lines, as the Michigan State transfer has generated 47 pressures from the interior.
Derrick Harmon’s get off and power on this snap is fantastic pic.twitter.com/7zo6vxKg3D
— Joe DeLeone (@joedeleone) December 1, 2024
Quarterback Dillon Gabriel will come up short in his quest to bring another Heisman Trophy to Eugene, but a successful campaign includes 31 all-purpose touchdowns and a low 1.4% turnover-worthy play rate.
Gabriel finished the regular season ranked No. 1 overall in on-target rate, a Sports Info Solution statistic that grades a quarterback's ability to hit targets in stride.
A caveat to that is the short passing game, as Gabriel's average depth of target of seven yards is easily the lowest of his career.
Slot receiver Tez Johnson's health is critical to the methodical nature of the Ducks, as the former Troy receiver has recorded 44 first downs this season. Johnson was injured against Maryland in Week 11 but returned against Washington in Week 14 to catch all three targets.
His 1.9 yards per route run posted on those catches indicates the senior should be a full go for the Big Ten Championship.
Penn State vs. Oregon Pick
There will be pressure on Allar against a fierce Oregon defensive line.
Harmon may find success up the middle against Penn State center Nick Dawkins. No player on the offensive line has allowed more than 10 quarterback hurries, with the exception of Dawkins' season total of 17.
The good news for the Nittany Lions is Allar's ability to dodge mistakes. He hasn't committed a turnover-worthy play in 100 dropbacks with a pressured pocket.
Penn State has been most successful in rushing attempts using power run concepts. The Ducks have fallen in between mid-range and elite in terms of defending the rush.
Oregon compiled a 50% Success Rate against power but fell to 114th in Stuff Rate, so Penn State will convert short-range attempts.
Singleton is expected to keep Penn State in standard downs, as the Nittany Lions have one of the lowest number of plays in passing downs in FBS.
Kotelnicki is also expected to bring backup quarterback Beau Pribula in for several RPO plays. Pribula has been used sparingly over the second half of the season, fumbling twice in the season finale against Maryland.
The bigger concern for Oregon comes against Warren and his ability to threaten explosives from any spot on the field. A similar matchup was presented to the Ducks earlier this season against Michigan, as Wolverines tight end Colston Loveland caught seven of his nine targets for four first downs.
The Nittany Lions will have the advantage in defending the Ducks' rushing attack.
Oregon OC Will Stein uses a heavy amount of zone read, both inside and outside, for running back Jordan James. The junior has rushed for 29 touchdowns over three seasons but will face one of the elite red zone defenses.
Only Iowa has fared better in keeping rushers out of the end zone this season, as Penn State ranks second in FBS in red-zone rushing touchdowns allowed.
The Nittany Lions have been elite against inside and outside zone read, a potential hurdle for James when the Ducks are in scoring position.
With advantages in run concepts and defending the slot, Penn State should be able to capture its second Big Ten Championship since the creation of the title game in Indianapolis.
Look for Warren to capitalize against an Oregon defense that failed to create contested catches against an elite tight end from Michigan.
Pick: Penn State +3.5 or Better
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Clemson vs. SMU Prediction
SMU's transition to the ACC shouldn't have been this easy.
The Mustangs agreed to join the ACC without $200 million in television revenue over nine years. Alumni quickly recuperated more than $100 million with the added statement, "Money is, literally, not an issue."
Those donors hit blackjack at the tables as SMU swept the ACC schedule and will have a chance to win the conference.
Clemson had an emotional roller coaster of a Week 14, first losing to in-state rival South Carolina. The Tigers ended Saturday on a high note, as a Syracuse upset of Miami placed Clemson in the ACC Championship Game. Head coach Dabo Swinney has the chance to capture a seventh conference title over the last 10 years.
Clemson opened as a 1-point favorite before steam on SMU moved the market to favor the Mustangs. The Tigers have remained as 2.5-point underdogs throughout the week with a 55.5-point over/under.
Read on for our Clemson vs SMU predictions and college football picks.
Clemson Tigers
Clemson successfully moved the ball against one of the stingiest defenses in the nation in South Carolina.
The Tigers averaged 4.8 yards per rush, generating a 65% Success Rate in 54 standard downs. Half of the 12 offensive possessions contained two first downs for coordinator Garrett Riley, who has used a heavy amount of inside zone and counter with the rushing attack.
Quarterback Cade Klubnik has had an increased role on the ground down the stretch, posting nearly an even distribution of designed yards versus scrambles.
The Clemson offense has seen a decline in the numbers of workhorse running back Phil Mafah. The senior carried the ball for more than 100 yards in six of his first nine games but has totaled just 105 rushing yards in the past three games against Pitt, The Citadel and South Carolina.
Klubnik has been lights out in passing attempts over the past month, throwing eight touchdowns to just two interceptions since Week 11 against Virginia Tech.
Freshman wideout Bryant Wesco has seen increased usage in the offense, receiving 10 targets against South Carolina with a season explosive mark of 2.3 yards per route run.
This version of the Clemson defense is nowhere near the championship-level play experienced before the pandemic season of 2020.
Despite ranking top 10 nationally in Defensive Havoc, coordinator Wes Goodwin has seen a step back in defending the run and allowing the big play.
Linebackers Barrett Carter and Wade Woodaz have each missed 10 tackles this season, and the Tigers rank 86th nationally in PFF's Tackling grades.
Defending the rush has also been a concern for the Tigers, as they rank mid-FBS in efficiency, Line Yards, and Stuff Rate on the season.
SMU Mustangs
The knock on SMU has been its strength of schedule, a hot topic for Athletic Director Rick Hart.
The Mustangs have had the 75th toughest schedule, thanks to an opening ACC schedule that did not include Clemson or Miami.
SMU is clearly under pressure to win this game or fall out of the College Football Playoff, as Alabama could steal an at-large bid.
SMU has thrived on offense since quarterback Kevin Jennings took over starting duties in Week 4 against TCU. The junior has posted more than 200 rushing yards on designed calls this season, as head coach Rhett Lashlee leans on inside zone more than any team in the ACC.
Miami transfer running back Brashard Smith has been elite this season, racking up 14 touchdowns with more than 1,100 rushing yards. In the rare occasion that SMU falls into passing downs, Jennings has been lethal, with the seventh-best number of explosives created through the air.
Defensive coordinator Scott Symons has coached his unit to top-25 rankings in nearly every advanced stat, including top 10 rankings in Quality and Finishing Drives.
SMU's defense ranks in the top 20 nationally in average third-down distance to go at 7.8 yards per attempt.
The secondary plays a heavy amount of Cover 3 while ranking 14th nationally in hard-stop rate, and the Mustangs rank top 20 in explosives allowed.
If we're being nitpicky, the Mustangs have struggled with penalties. Only three teams nationally average more penalty yards per game. According to Sport Source Analytics, they've committed 28 "undisciplined penalties" this season.
Clemson vs. SMU Pick
There is reason to believe SMU will be able to defend the inside zone and counter combination from the Clemson offense.
The Mustangs have generated a Success Rate of at least 57% against both run concepts while producing a negative EPA for opponents.
Klubnik may find the Tigers' offense in passing downs throughout the game. That's an advantage for SMU's defense, which ranks 15th nationally in PFF's pass rush grades.
Clemson might not move the ball well, as Klubnik has posted average numbers against the SMU coverage looks of Cover 3 and Quarters. The Mustangs rank in the top 50 nationally in contested catches created.
Clemson's struggles to stop the rush should lead to explosive plays for SMU. Clemson ranks near dead last in Rush EPA allowed.
The Mustangs are more explosive through the air, especially when Jennings targets slot receiver Roderick Daniels Jr.
After losing top target RJ Maryland, Daniels became the go-to option from the slot with an explosive 2.2 yards per route run.
Clemson has been most vulnerable to the explosive play in early downs, which bodes poorly against an SMU offense that ranks ninth nationally in offensive momentum killer.
The Action Network Power Ratings make SMU a two-point favorite over Clemson in Charlotte at Bank of America Stadium.
SMU has advantages on both sides of the ball regarding run concept usage, with an explosive factor in favor of the Mustangs' passing game.
The current market of -2.5 is the limit for a play on SMU, with any moneyline offering of -135 or better as the best investment.
Pick: SMU -2.5 or Better OR SMU ML -135 or Better
