Welcome to our expert debate for College Football Week 1 and our LSU vs USC predictions and picks for which team will cover the spread, which is currently LSU -4 after being as high as LSU -6.5 earlier in the week.
Throughout the 2024 college football season, our betting experts will preview the biggest marquee matchups and go back-and-forth on the cases for both teams to cover the spread, giving you all the information you need for your college football picks.
And if you're looking for an LSU vs USC pick to make right, check out Collin Wilson's USC vs LSU Pick, which is on the Trojans to cover the spread.
LSU vs. USC: Odds, Lines, Spread Picks
| LSU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4 -115 | 64.5 -110o / -110u | -190 |
| USC Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4 -105 | 64.5 -110o / -110u | +160 |
Why LSU Can Cover the Spread
We are back, baby! Action Network’s most heated rivalry returns for another season of fierce debates. If you're on the fence about one of the biggest games each week, we will find a game we're on opposite sides of and lay out the case for our side.
Whichever person makes the most convincing argument (it’s usually me), you can ride with!
If you love a good defensive battle, this is not your game. Before you let Tanner and I try to convince you on a side here, go ahead and open your phone and bet the over because we're seeing 70 in this one.
The story for LSU is replacing the reigning Heisman Trophy Winner, quarterback Jayden Daniels. That said, I'm incredibly high on redshirt junior Garrett Nussmeier and think he will be a Heisman candidate in his own right this season.
Nussmeier was a four-star recruit out of high school and has already flashed his immense talent upside in a limited sample.
Perhaps his most notable audition came in the 2022 SEC Championship game after Daniels was injured in the first half. Nussmeier played the entire second half for the Tigers and looked unphased as he showed off his arm talent, throwing for 294 yards and two touchdowns against the vaunted Georgia Bulldogs defense.
This kid has a rocket arm and can make every throw on the field. He has 18 big-time throws in his three years at LSU and a 7.9% big-time throw rate, which would have ranked sixth in the country last season, right ahead of Drake Maye and Michael Penix.
Despite losing two first-round receivers, LSU has become a pass-catching factory, and I expect the Tigers will reload and reproduce one of the nation’s best wide receiver corps.
Kyren Lacy caught seven touchdowns as the No. 3 option last year and averaged 18.6 yards per reception. He’ll be joined by transfer CJ Daniels, who had over 1,000 yards and 10 touchdowns at Liberty last year.
As bad as LSU’s defense is — and I’m sure Tanner is going to harp on that low-hanging fruit — guess what? The Trojans defense was even worse. USC ranked 113th nationally in Success Rate Allowed, giving up a whopping 432.8 yards per game.
Nussmeier and the Tigers offense will shred USC. In a battle of who can get the most stops, I’m going to bet LSU has an easier time than USC.
Why USC Can Cover the Spread
I’m bullish on USC.
Last year’s horrendous defense should take a monstrous step forward behind new defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn, who transformed UCLA last year. The Bruins went from allowing over 400 yards and nearly 30 points per game in 2022 to a top-10 unit in 2023.
Lynn brings safety Kamari Ramsey across town — Ramsey posted four PBUs in this scheme last year. But Lynn will also build around elite defensive tackle Bear Alexander (Georgia transfer) and rock-solid, 80-tackle linebacker Easton Mascarenas-Arnold (Oregon State transfer), not to mention nine returning starters and six of the top eight tacklers from last year’s Trojans.
While the 2024 USC defense might not be a world-beater, Lynn should turn the Trojans from a miserable defense into a respectable one.
Conversely, I don’t expect the Trojan offense to regress severely in Caleb Williams’ stead.
New QB1 Miller Moss threw for 400 yards and six touchdowns in last season’s Holiday Bowl against Louisville, and he’ll have one of the Big Ten’s most explosive targets in Zachariah Branch to throw to (1.9 YRR).
I don’t expect the Trojans to struggle against LSU’s defense. Sure, the Tigers also have a new defensive coordinator, but Lynn is a more significant upgrade than Blake Baker.
And sure, the Tigers still have superstar linebacker Harold Perkins. But they also finished 124th in EPA per Play allowed last year and returned only six defensive starters. I have serious questions about the defensive line and secondary.
Ultimately, I believe this unit’s lack of improvement will hold the Tigers back.
Meanwhile, I think it’s reasonable to assume LSU’s offense won’t be nearly as explosive or dynamic without Jayden Daniels, Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas.
Garrett Nussmeier has never been a starting quarterback before and is far less mobile than Daniels. The four returning wide receivers combined for just 1,190 yards last year, and top returning running back Josh Williams managed fewer than 300 yards.
The Trojans will be uber-improved on defense and won’t regress much on offense. The Tigers won’t improve much on defense and will regress significantly on offense. USC is an easy Week 1 pick.
Also, the Trojans will have a monster special teams advantage. Branch is an electric returner, and the Trojans return both specialists from last season’s top-15 ST finish.
Meanwhile, the 2023 Tigers were a bottom-30 unit, and punter Jay Bramblett departed in the offseason.
Special teams play can make all the difference in a close game.
Why LSU is the Better Bet
Ianniello: Everybody thinks USC’s defense will take a “monstrous” step forward this season, but I’m not convinced.
Lynn's UCLA defense was great last season. Still, he’s been a defensive coordinator for one year and had a team loaded with talent on the defensive line.
This is still a Lincoln Riley team. Riley has never had a good defense. His teams are always soft because he coaches them soft.
Dating back to his time at Oklahoma, Riley is notorious for having practices that aren’t physical and limiting the tackling at practice. It shows on game day with teams that consistently struggled to tackle.
LSU also hired a new defensive coordinator, Blake Baker, after two seasons at Missouri. If you want to compare notes, the Missouri defense ranked 17th nationally in Success Rate Allowed, while the UCLA defense ranked 22nd. Mizzou ranked in the top 30 in Success Rate against the run and the pass and ranked in the top 10 in Havoc rate.
The best defensive player on the field Sunday will be LSU linebacker Harold Perkins. After a disappointing sophomore campaign when he moved to inside linebacker, Perkins will return to the outside, where he wrecked Havoc as a freshman. Perkins put up 73 tackles with 14 tackles for loss and 8.5 sacks as a freshman playing on the outside.
Perkins and this LSU defense should create plenty of Havoc against a suspect USC offensive line. This group allowed 33 sacks last season (105th nationally) and now has to replace their left tackle and right guard.
Sure, Miller Moss looked good in a meaningless bowl game against a bad Louisville defense, but it’s hard to put any stock into bowl games these days. And if you wanted to, Nussmeier went 31-of-45 for 395 yards and three touchdowns against Wisconsin.
Are we sure Moss is actually good, or is it just one game? USC went looking for an upgrade in the transfer portal, bringing in UNLV transfer Jayden Maiava to push for this job. So, how much confidence do the coaches actually have in him?
Both defenses have questions, but I am much more confident in Nussmeier and this LSU offense than I am in Moss and the Trojans.
Why USC is the Better Bet
McGrath: You just can’t be that high on Nussmeier. He completed a whopping 55% of his passes in that Georgia game with two Turnover-Worthy Plays and an interception.
In his three years as a backup, Moss has completed 72% of his passes with seven touchdowns to one interception. I know which quarterback I’m higher on.
And you think you’ll replace two NFL first-round receivers that easily? Daniels was a stud at Liberty, but Conference USA is a clown show — this is the SEC!
Lacy averaged 1.7 YRR in 2023 — Nabers averaged 3.6 and Thomas averaged 2.6. Again, the returning five returning pass catchers combined for under 1,200 yards! The Tigers are much worse at the skill positions and at least nominally worse at quarterback — they’re certainly less dynamic.
Yeah, both defenses were awful last year. But only one made a stud coordinator hire, returned nine starters, and added meaningful portal talent.
LSU returns six defensive starters from last year’s atrocious team — and only 12 overall — so don’t expect much improvement.
Baker’s 2023 Missouri defense ranked 61st nationally in EPA per Play allowed, 74th in EPA per Dropback allowed, and 101st in Explosiveness allowed. LSU and Florida posted 500 yards of offense against Baker and Co. last season — and LSU is arguably much less talented.
For comparison, Lynn’s 2023 Bruins ranked in the top 25 nationally in the Success Rate allowed, the top 10 in Havoc and the top two in EPA per Play allowed. I know which coach I trust more.
Also, I’m unsure that USC’s defense was worse than LSU’s last season.
The Trojans ranked 108th in EPA per Play allowed, while the Tigers ranked 124th. Last year’s comparison is murky, but USC’s defensive ceiling is incontrovertibly higher this year — the Trojans will undoubtedly have an easier time generating stops.
If one offense is going to shred the other defense, it’s Lincoln Riley and USC. The Trojans will consistently score under Riley, especially with Moss and Branch on the field.
LSU Football Spread: Why Tigers Will Cover
Ianniello: I certainly can be that high on Nussmeier. I bet him to win the Heisman Trophy; that's how high I am on him.
I'm not worried about the drop-off at receiver because this is what LSU does. They replaced DJ Chark and Russell Gage with Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase. Then, they replaced Kayshon Boutte and Terrace Marshall with Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas. Lacy and Chris Hilton were both four-star recruits with tons of talent.
If you want to talk about losing guys, USC also lost its top two receivers — Tahj Washington and Brenden Rice. Zachariah Branch is electric but more of a returner than a receiver. He averaged just 29 receiving yards per game last season.
The Trojans lost stud running back MarShawn Lloyd, alongside backup Austin Jones. USC will rely on Mississippi State transfer Woody Marks, who has never had more than 600 yards in a season.
In terms of expecting which defense to improve more, the Trojans have much further to go.
Last season, the LSU defense ranked 81st in scoring defense, allowing 28.0 points per game. The USC defense allowed a whopping 34.4 points per game, ranking 121st nationally. The Tigers ranked 17th in tackling, while USC ranked 75th.
I think these defenses are a wash at best. Both were bad, and both should get better under new coordinators, but I'm not convinced that Lynn is going to be some instant miracle worker.
I prefer LSU’s quarterback, running backs and receivers to USCs.
But most importantly, the Tigers might have the best offensive line in the league. Four of the five starters are back, anchored by All-American left tackle Will Campbell. Campbell will likely be a top-10 pick in next year’s draft, and four returnees will have over 1,500 snaps in their careers.
The strength of Lynn’s defense was getting into the backfield, putting pressure on the quarterback, and creating Havoc. Well, that isn’t going to happen against LSU’s offensive line.
Tanner better hope this USC secondary magically takes a massive step forward, or Nussmeier will sit in the pocket and tear apart this defense all day.
USC Football Spread: Why Trojans Will Cover
McGrath: Perkins is awesome. But look at the talent around him.
LSU lost its other top linebacker (Omar Speights) in the offseason. Two starting defensive linemen got drafted into the NFL (Mekhi Wingo and Maason Smith).
If Baker wants to re-create his aggressive, Havoc-based defense in the Bayou, he’ll have to replace a ton of talent.
Baker coaches aggressive units that are extremely vulnerable to passing attacks and explosives. Missouri ranked 89th nationally in 20-plus yard plays allowed last year (60), and Baker is inheriting a defensive backfield that ranked 114th in that metric (68). That doesn’t feel like a great pairing.
Meanwhile, you’re underrating Lynn’s contributions to the 2023 Bruins.
Do you forget just how bad UCLA’s defense was in 2022? The 2022 Bruins allowed 29 points (92nd nationally) and 403 yards per game. Lynn arrives, and the 2023 Bruins allowed 18 points (14th nationally) and 301 yards per game. That is a wild flip in production that should mainly be attributed to Lynn.
USC made some excellent offseason additions.
Aside from the Alexander-Ramsey-Mascarenas trio, USC brought in Mississippi State cornerback transfer DeCarlos Nicholson and Oregon State safety Akili Arnold. Lynn will get the nine returning starters to line up and tackle correctly, and the Trojans’ back seven will be totally rebuilt.
One final point on the quarterback matchup: It’s been reported that Moss beat out Maiava for the QB1 spot partly because of his ability to protect the football. If Moss can protect the football against Baker’s Havoc-based defense and hit deep shots against one of college football’s most vulnerable secondaries, I like the Trojans' chances.
Also, while LSU produces pass catchers, Riley produces offense.
He’s won 10 or more games in five of his seven years as a head coach, primarily by coaching up guys like Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray and Caleb Williams.
After mercifully firing Alex Grinch, he finally has a defensive coordinator who could complete his teams.
Closing Arguments for LSU vs. USC Spread
Ianniello: Bet LSU -4
Tanner’s entire handicap is based around a defensive coordinator with one year of experience having a massive impact on a defense that has been bad for years.
I’m not buying it.
I like the LSU defensive coordinator hire just as much and think these defenses are likely a wash.
Meanwhile, I am much higher on Nussmeier than Moss and trust this LSU team to replace their skill positions as they always do. Throughout this article, we have both picked apart and questioned what the other team has on the outside at receiver and in the secondary.
So, let’s take this game to the trenches. LSU has the best offensive line in the country with an All-American tackle — and a star edge rusher capable of wreaking Havoc and single-handedly winning a game.
Games are won in the trenches, and the Tigers have the advantage up front.
Finally, let’s talk about the coaching advantage. Brian Kelly is 36-22 (62.1%) against the spread against top-25 teams. He is the most profitable coach against top-25 teams in our Action Labs database, right ahead of Urban Meyer and Nick Saban.
Give me LSU. All aboard the Nuss bus. Geaux Tigers.
Pick: LSU -4.5 |
McGrath: Bet USC +4
These are two very similar teams.
Both LSU and USC lost superstar quarterbacks and wide receiver talent in the offseason. Both LSU and USC featured elite offenses and bottom-of-the-barrel defenses last season. Both LSU and USC made defensive coordinator changes to address their deficiencies.
However, all the intangibles favor USC in this matchup.
The Trojans have a big advantage on special teams. The game being played in Las Vegas gives them a decent-sized travel advantage. They made the better coordinator hire. They lost less talent to the draft while adding more through the portal.
USC’s ceiling is much higher than LSU’s — especially on defense. I’m willing to bet on that when catching over four points.
Pick: USC +4 |
