It's a big Week 8 in the SEC with two top-10 showdowns on Saturday. For the rest of the college football landscape, it's an interesting week from a betting perspective, especially in the totals market.
Welcome to our Week 8 Pace Report, where we'll focus on Nebraska vs. Indiana, Louisiana vs. Coastal Carolina and South Carolina vs. Oklahoma
Here are the pace numbers for each team through Week 8.
If you're new to our Pace Report, we'll take an in-depth look at the totals market using yards per play, Success Rate, Finishing Drives, plays per minute and more.
Using those metrics — along with a look at the weather and key injuries — the goal is to hopefully help bettors beat the market before Friday and Saturday morning.
Let's kick Week 8 off with three totals to target.
Nebraska vs. Indiana Prediction
| Nebraska Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -110 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | +200 |
| Indiana Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -110 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | -245 |
I think this total is a little too high given the pace it'll be played at.
Nebraska quarterback Dylan Raiola was flat-out terrible in the Huskers' previous game against Rutgers, going 13-for-28 for 134 yards, an interception and a PFF passing grade of 38.3.
His problem is he's not great when facing pressure. Raiola has been under pressure on almost 33% of his dropbacks this season with his yards per attempt dropping from 8.2 to 7.2 and his completion percentage dropping from 73% to 46.3% when throwing from a crowded pocket.
Indiana ranks 17th nationally in Havoc and seventh in terms of a pass-rushing grade, per PFF.
Additionally, this will be Raiola's second-ever true road start. He really struggled for the first half in his first one against a Purdue that has the worst Power 4 defense in the country.
Nebraska has been a pretty average rushing attack this season, ranking 56th in EPA/Rush. It's a much more methodical rushing offense because it averages only 3.6 yards per carry and ranks 116th in explosive rushing plays.
Indiana's defensive front has been very good at stopping the run this season, ranking 11th in Stuff Rate and 23rd in Rushing Success Rate Allowed.
The Cornhuskers' biggest issues have come in the opponent's territory of the field. They're 108th in Finishing Drives, averaging only 3.2 points per scoring opportunity.
In addition to Nebraska having issues inside the red zone, kicker Tristan Alvano has been hurt for the last two games and is questionable to play in this one. That's important because the backup kicker in his place has gone 1-for-5 on field goals.
Indiana's offense has put up some really big numbers, scoring over 40 points in its last five games. However, this is the best defense it will have faced so far this season.
Quarterback Kurtis Rourke has the Hoosiers first in the nation in Passing Success Rate, but Nebraska's secondary has done a really nice job containing opposing quarterbacks, ranking 15th in EPA/Pass Allowed.
Indiana has found success running the ball, but it hasn't broken off a lot of big runs. In fact, the Hoosiers sit at 86th in explosive rushing, while Nebraska is 14th in that category defensively.
The pace of this game is going to be slow with both offenses ranking outside the top 80 in seconds per play.
With these defenses ranking top-20 defenses in EPA/Play Allowed, I like the value on under 51.5 points.
Pick: Under 51.5 (BetRivers)
Louisiana vs. Coastal Carolina Prediction
| Louisiana Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4 -110 | 56.5 -110o / -110u | -178 |
| Coastal Carolina Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4 -110 | 56.5 -110o / -110u | +150 |
The Ragin' Cajuns offense has been incredibly efficient this season.
It ranks 19th in EPA/Play with the focus coming on the ground. The running back trio of Bill Davis, Zylan Perry and Dre'lyn Washington has been great, as all three are averaging over six yards per carry.
The offensive line has been doing a great job paving the way for them as well, ranking 38th in Offensive Line Yards.
Quarterback Ben Wooldridge has also been really efficient when asked to throw. He has Louisiana ranking sixth in Passing Success Rate and owns a PFF passing grade of 88.5.
However, giving him a clean pocket has been a bit of a problem. The Ragin' Cajuns sit 94th in terms of a PFF pass-blocking grade.
When Wooldridge isn't pressured, though, he has picked defenses apart, posting nine yards per attempt with an 83.3% adjusted completion percentage. That's important because Coastal Carolina is outside the top 100 in Havoc and is 91st in terms of a PFF pass-rushing grade.
On the other side, Coastal Carolina can break off a big play in an instant — especially in the passing game.
The Chanticleers lead the nation in explosive passing because quarterback Ethan Vasko throws the deep ball so well. He's averaging well over 10 yards per attempt this season and absolutely slings it on throws over 20 yards.
Why is that important? Well, Louisiana ranks 96th in explosive passing allowed and has one of the worst pass-rushing grades in college football. That means Vasko will be given plenty of time to throw on Saturday.
Coastal Carolina will have a big edge inside the 40-yard line as well. The Chanticleers rank 16th in Finishing Drives, while Louisiana is 102nd in Finishing Drives Allowed.
Both of these teams are also in the bottom 30 of college football in terms of a PFF tackling grade, so missed tackles will lead to a lot of big plays and plenty of points.
I have 61.9 points projected for this game, so I like the value on over 56.5 points.
Pick: Over 56.5 (Caesars)
South Carolina vs. Oklahoma Prediction
| South Carolina Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -115 | 40.5 -108o / -112u | +120 |
| Oklahoma Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -105 | 40.5 -108o / -112u | -142 |
The wind is going to be blowing at around 10 mph here, but even with that being the case, I think the total is too low.
South Carolina quarterback LaNorris Sellers showed the nation something against Alabama. He showed that he's not as limited in the passing game as most people thought. He made a ton of huge throws against the Crimson Tide's secondary, going 23-for-31 for 238 yards and two touchdowns.
That's a massive wrinkle for a South Carolina offense that relied heavily on the run for most of this season.
In fact, South Carolina is now up to 19th in the nation in explosive passing, which will be big in this game against an Oklahoma secondary that's 83rd in EPA/Pass Allowed.
Now, it'll be a tough matchup against Oklahoma's defensive front. Luckily for the Gamecocks, Raheim "Rocket" Sanders has been running the ball well this season, averaging 4.9 yards per attempt with 23 missed tackles forced.
He has run the ball for over four yards per carry against some really good run defenses like Kentucky, LSU and Alabama, so he should find some success on Saturday.
On the other side, Oklahoma is going to be limited offensively with a lot of the wide receiver weapons out for this game — but that isn't necessarily the worst thing.
South Carolina's secondary ranks eighth in the nation in EPA/Pass Allowed, but the Gamecocks have struggled a bit against the run. They're 100th in Stuff Rate, 70th in Defensive Line Yards and 83rd in EPA/Rush Allowed.
With so many pass-catchers on the injury report, the Sooners could be forced into running the ball, which is probably the best game plan here.
Michael Hawkins Jr. is now the starting quarterback, and even if he's limited as a passer, he's pretty good with his feet. He ran for 76 yards against Tennessee, and he also ran for over 50 yards against Texas excluding sacks.
The pace of this game should be pretty quick as well with South Carolina ranking 51st in seconds per play and Oklahoma ranking 36th. With the pace that fast, I think the total is way too low, so I like the value on over 40 points.
Pick: Over 40 (DraftKings)
