College Football Moneyline Underdogs Picks
Welcome to college football Week 2.
For the seventh straight season on our college football betting podcast, Big Bets on Campus, Collin Wilson and I pick our two favorite moneyline underdogs for each week's slate.
Last week, we hit both of our picks of USC over LSU and North Texas over South Alabama. If you parlayed those two together, you saw a payout of just over 6-1.
For Week 2 of the new season, we rolled with a Group of Five 'dog on the road and a Power 4 'dog at home — which just happens to be the defending national champion.
We'll get things started Saturday with Michigan hosting Texas in a battle between two College Football Playoff contenders. Then, we'll take San Jose State against an option-heavy Air Force team to close out the week.
If you're feeling lucky, a parlay of both pups pays out a little more than 7-1.
Let's dive into our college football moneyline underdogs for Week 2.
- 2018-23: 72-114, +12.65 units
- 2024: 2-0, +3.4 units
- Overall: 74-114, +16.05 units
2024-25: 2-0 (100%, +3.4 units)
Stuckey: San Jose State +168 vs. Air Force
| San Jose State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -115 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | +168 |
| Air Force Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -105 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | -205 |
Just last week, I went with North Texas over South Alabama in a game with a ton of variance and roster turnover. Well, we have the same thing here.
San Jose State has a new coaching staff led by former Navy head coach Ken Niumatalolo, who has plenty of experience running and defending the triple option.
On the other side, Air Force is entering uncharted territory. Service academies typically just reload year after year without a real talent drop-off, but the Falcons lost a ton of key pieces and brought almost nothing back. This could be one of those years where they're just much worse than usual.
Plus, I wasn't really impressed with their effort last week against Merrimack.
San Jose State and Air Force both played FCS schools last week, so there's a lot of uncertainty here.
But the one thing the Spartans have on their side is Niumatalolo's experience with the triple option. His Navy defenses defended it every day in practice and played Army and Air Force in live-game action every year.
For what it's worth, San Jose State will also have the best player on the field in wide receiver Nick Nash, who went off for 170 yards and two touchdowns on 10 catches last week. I'm not sure anyone on Air Force can contain him, which could be the difference.
Spartan Up.
Collin Wilson: Michigan +235 vs. Texas
| Texas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7 -115 | 42.5 -110o / -110u | -290 |
| Michigan Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 -105 | 42.5 -110o / -110u | +235 |
I'm probably the only person with this ticket, but it's pretty easy to see why this number steamed. Michigan missed a cover against Fresno State, and Texas put a 50-burger on Colorado State — and that's after this number sat below a field goal the entire summer.
The Michigan defense is going to flex one of the best defensive lines in the nation. This unit created 13 pressures against Fresno and should be able to get to Quinn Ewers here to potentially change his path of passing and create some mistakes.
The cornerbacks were also outstanding for Michigan with multiple pass breakups and interceptions against Fresno's Mikey Keene, who's an experienced starter.
Ewers is good on go routes and slants but has issues with timing routes, so we'll see if Michigan can take advantage of that. Texas' receivers are talented, but the Wolverines have a secondary that can keep up.
The handicap really lies with Michigan's offense.
Davis Warren started under center and went 15-for-25 with nine of his attempts going short over the middle to tight end Colston Loveland.
But when combined with the inside zone from running back Kalel Mullings, there might be something there. Mullings averaged 6.1 yards per rushing attempt, including a huge 4.3 yards after first contact.
That's not even taking into account Donovan Edwards, who has proven to be one of the most electric players in the country in the past.
The inside zone is going to go straight at the worst part of Texas' defense, which is the defensive interior. Bill Norton, Alfred Collins and Vernon Broughton will get the nod on the inside, but those three posted the three lowest run defense grades of any player on Texas in Week 1. The trio created just one stop on 27 Colorado State rushing attempts.
When it comes to pass rush, the Longhorns produced just seven pressures with zero sacks on 57 passing attempts by Colorado State. That's bad news against a quarterback like Warren, who gets the ball out in 2.1 seconds.
I don't think Texas will rack up the sacks here.
If Michigan can find success with the inside zone — which it should — this is a Sherrone Moore service academy-esque game. The Wolverines will nail this down to about seven possessions and turn it into a rock fight. They're going to make the defense win this game.
If that's the case, I trust Michigan's defense more than Texas'.
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