Week 14 College Football Best Bets
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 12 p.m. | |
  | 12 p.m. | |
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
It's the final week of the college football regular season.
What a ride it's been.
But let's not get nostalgic. We still have work to do, starting with our three college football best bets for Week 14's noon slate, including picks for Tennessee vs. Vanderbilt, Kansas vs. Baylor and UTSA vs. Army.
Let's dive into our college football best bets and noon NCAAF picks for Week 14.
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Tennessee vs. Vanderbilt Best Bets
Vanderbilt, as a double-digit underdog this season:
- 27-30 loss to Missouri as 17.5-point ‘dogs
- 40-35 win over Alabama as 23.5-point ‘dogs
- 20-13 win over Kentucky as 12.5-point ‘dogs
- 27-24 loss to Texas as 17-point ‘dogs
- 24-17 loss to LSU as 10-point ‘dogs
5-0 ATS. 2-3 SU. And that doesn’t include Vandy’s 17-7 win over Auburn as an eight-point underdog a few weeks ago.
Tennessee, as a double-digit favorite in SEC play this season:
- 19-14 loss to Oklahoma as 14-point favorites
- 23-17 win over Florida as 14.5-point favorites
- 33-14 win over Mississippi State as 26-point favorites
- 28-18 win over Kentucky as 17.5-point favorites
0-4 ATS. 3-1 SU.
Diego Pavia’s down-tempo, quasi-triple-option, rush-heavy attack churns the clock, limits possessions, and shortens the game, making the Commodores auto-bets as big ‘dogs.
Meanwhile, Tennessee boasts an elite defense but an underwhelming, overvalued offense — the Vols don’t profile well as big favorites.
Nico Iamaleava and Co. have looked incredibly dull on the road.
They went to Oklahoma and posted a 30% Success Rate. They went to Arkansas and managed 14 points. They went to Georgia and barely broke 150 passing yards. They averaged well under five yards per play in all three appearances.
It’s always tough to build a margin against Vanderbilt’s ball-hogging offense, and I don’t expect Tennessee’s offense to produce efficiently in Nashville.
It’s a perfect storm to back the ‘Dores, who should keep it close for 60 minutes.
Pick: Vanderbilt +11
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Kansas vs. Baylor Best Bets
By Pete Ruden
It’s wild that Kansas might be the best team in the Big 12 and is still fighting to make a bowl — especially considering the slew of teams in contention at the top of the standings.
Of the Jayhawks’ six losses, five have come by six points or less, and four of those were by four or less.
Then they caught fire with three consecutive ranked victories over teams fighting for a conference title.
The most significant catalyst for Kansas’ hot streak is its offense. The Jayhawks have figured things out quickly and now rank fifth in Finishing Drives, sixth in Offensive Line Yards, 10th in Rushing Success Rate and 15th in Passing Success Rate.
They cruise right by a Baylor defense that ranks outside the top 60 in Defensive Finishing Drives, Defensive Line Yards, and Passing Success Rate allowed.
Jalon Daniels and Devin Neal have been an incredible combo of late. In fact, Neal has run for 375 yards and seven touchdowns over his last three games alone.
The Bears have a competent offense with Sawyer Robertson running the show under center, but I expect the cornerback duo of Mello Dotson and Cobee Bryant to step up big time with their season on the line.
It’s worth noting that Baylor has already clinched bowl eligibility, giving the motivational edge to the Jayhawks.
I’ll take what might be the hottest team in the country in a game it needs. Rock Chalk!
Pick: Kansas ML (-115)
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UTSA vs. Army Best Bets
By John Feltman
UTSA is in a tremendous spot as they travel to West Point on Saturday.
Over the past five games, the Roadrunners have been playing their best football of the season and are being disrespected by the market.
Let's dive deeper into the matchup.
First off, this is a great matchup in the trenches.
UTSA's defensive line is stellar, ranking highly in Stuff Rate, Line Yards and Rush Success Rate allowed. That bodes well against a triple-option attack.
UTSA's offense is better than the metrics suggest, and it's had plenty of success through the air. Army's defense also ranks 94th nationally in Havoc, so Owen McCown will have little pressure to evade.
Additionally, Army has played nobody. The Black Knights rank 91st nationally in strength of schedule, and they'd rank worse if they hadn't played Notre Dame last week.
Army has the AAC Championship next week and the Army-Navy Game the following week, so they have far bigger things on their minds. I wouldn't be surprised to see Army rest some players, especially after getting dinged up last week against Notre Dame.
Pick: UTSA +7 (-105)
