College Football Best Bets, Week 4 Noon Picks
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
We need college football Week 4.
Last week's slate didn't provide the flavor that many college football fans and bettors crave after a long eight-month wait — but that changes this week.
Friday night's slate was a solid appetizer, but now the main course is here, and it all starts with a loaded kickoff window at noon ET.
Our college football writers jumped at the opportunity to get after it this week, hand-picking four best bets to get the day started, including picks for West Virginia vs. Kansas, Louisiana vs. Tulane, North Carolina vs. James Madison and Indiana vs. Charlotte.
Read on for all four of our college football best bets for Saturday's noon slate — and be sure to check out our eight other best bets for Saturday's afternoon and evening kickoff windows.
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Kansas vs. West Virginia Best Bet
By Alex Hinton
West Virginia has won eight of the last 10 meetings in this series, but Kansas won the last meeting, 55-42, in overtime.
In that game, Kansas had 200 yards on the ground and through the air and announced it was no longer a pushover in the Big 12 behind its dynamic offense.
With expectations as high as ever in Lawrence this season, the Jayhawks have lost both of their games against FBS opponents.
That once-prolific offense has yet to show up this season as the Jayhawks have scored 37 points in those games.
Quarterback Jalon Daniels has particularly struggled as he’s completing 55% of his passes and has three touchdowns to six interceptions. One likely reason for that is the departure of offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki.
Unfortunately for West Virginia, it still had to defend an offense with Kotelnick as the play caller as it faced Penn State in the season opener.
This time around, it’s a home favorite and its offense should find success. Last week, UNLV quarterback Matthew Sluka ran for 124 yards and a touchdown against Kansas.
The Jayhawks will have another dual-threat quarterback to defend in West Virginia quarterback Garrett Greene. The fifth-year senior is averaging 243 total yards per game and has six total touchdowns against two interceptions.
Joining him in the backfield is running backs CJ Donaldson Jr. and Jahiem White. At this point, Donaldson finding the end zone is a weekly occurrence, while White has run for two touchdowns himself this season.
Both backs are averaging over five yards per carry this season.
West Virginia has scored 30 points in nine of its past 11 games. If it gets to 30 once again, you have to wonder if the Jayhawks will have enough offense to keep up.
Pick: West Virginia ML -118 (Play to -140)
Tulane vs. Louisiana Best Bet
For Tulane, this game is going to feel like when a baseball player is swinging a donut in the on-deck circle and takes the weight off and the bat feels like nothing.
After coming off games against Kansas State and Oklahoma, this Louisiana defense is going to be a welcome sight.
Despite the elevated competition, Tulane is still averaging 6.6 yards per play on offense and ranks 33rd in EPA per play.
Quarterback Darian Mensah has shown he can throw the ball around a bit, with an average depth of target of 13.2.
He has a stud receiver to throw to in USC transfer Mario Williams, who’s averaging over 22 yards per catch and 96 yards per game. Also, running back Makhi Hughes is one of the best backs in the Group of Five.
But defensively, this team has lost a ton of talent and still has major questions.
Louisiana has played just two games against nobody with a pulse, but it’s been able to find a groove in basically an extended preseason. The Cajuns are averaging 37 points per game, and quarterback Ben Wooldridge is completing 77% of his passes.
Five players are averaging at least 25 receiving yards per game, and running backs Zylan Perry and Elijah Davis have both looked great.
Louisiana has gained 77.6% of its available yards this season, the most in the country. It ranks 16th in yards per play and should come into this game with a ton of confidence on offense.
However, even against lesser competition, the defense ranks just 75th in EPA and allowed over 200 yards rushing in both games.
Coming off a bye week, Louisiana should have a good game plan and a few tricks up its sleeve, while Tulane will be able to move the ball with more success than it had the last two weeks.
I like getting this at anything under the key number of 55.
Pick: Over 53.5 (Play to 55)
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James Madison vs. North Carolina Best Bet
By Cody Goggin
I came into this set on writing about how James Madison stands a chance this weekend, but after diving into this game, I think quite the opposite.
James Madison has only played two games this season, with neither one telling us much about where it stands in the post-Curt Cignetti era. The Dukes defeated Charlotte 30-7 before playing an unusually close one against Gardner-Webb (13-6).
North Carolina’s typically-strong passing offense ranks just 111th in passing success rate, 127th in passing PPA and 128th in passing explosiveness this season after losing Max Johnson to injury.
Instead, the Heels are leaning on running back Omarion Hampton, who has 55 rushes for 339 yards and three touchdowns already.
James Madison’s rushing defense ranks 11th in the country in success rate to this point. However, it hasn’t played anyone of note and returns only three starters on this side of the ball.
I believe that there may be a dropoff coming soon from this unit that ranked 43rd in SP+ last year.
Offensively, the Dukes return only four starters. They only had a 44th-percentile EPA per play against Charlotte’s No. 118 defense and a 27th-percentile EPA per play against Gardner-Webb’s FCS defense.
Quarterback Alonza Barnett III is averaging just -0.08 EPA per play and a 39% success rate when passing this season, which is less than ideal.
Despite the easy schedule, James Madison ranks 86th in offensive success rate and 97th in finishing drives this season.
UNC’s defense has also had an easy road, but it did face a tough Minnesota team and held the Gophers in check.
North Carolina’s defense ranks 21st in success rate and sixth in explosiveness allowed to this point. It’s 28th in success rate against the pass and 31st against the run as we haven’t yet seen any major holes from this unit with seven starters back.
It looks like James Madison could be in for a tough season after its previous highs. With a new head coach and only seven returning starters on the entire team, I think the Dukes are going to be much worse than what we’ve seen from them so far.
On name value, I wanted to say James Madison had a shot in this game, but after doing the research, I think there’s a good chance that the Tar Heels just smash the Dukes, easily covering this number.
Pick: UNC -10.5 (Play to -12.5)
Charlotte vs. Indiana Best Bet
When laying a big number, you need to get inside the head of a head coach. When he has a team on the ropes, does he throttle down? Does he opt to pare down his offense in favor of conservative play calls? Will he empty his bench?
In the case of Indiana’s Curt Cignetti, the answer to all three of these important questions is a resounding “no.”
Cignetti is a bit of a run-it-up maniac, if we’re being completely honest. The former JMU head coach is 17-10 ATS in his career, and in the past two and a half seasons, he’s defeated 11 opponents by 28 or more points.
In his first year with the Crimson and Cream, he’s made it his mission to beat the stuffing out of everyone they’ve played. The Hoosiers were up 42-3 on hapless Western Illinois in Week 2, and then they scored another 35 points in the second half.
When they bumped up in weight class to face UCLA, his Hoosiers dominated the Bruins in a 42-13 blowout.
Charlotte, meanwhile, comes in with a third-string quarterback who has a storied history with turning the ball over. Trexler Ivey threw 10 picks last season in limited work, posting twice as many turnover worthy throws as big time throws, per PFF.
The 49ers take chances with him at quarterback in the hopes of connecting on big chunk plays. That’s worked early in the season (eighth in explosives), but against Indiana, their luck will run out.
The Hoosiers are top-10 in limiting explosives and they have a well-oiled machine offensively to cash in on any Charlotte turnovers.
Kurtis “Maple Missile” Rourke has been locked in this season. In the past two games, Rourke is 40-of-50 for 575 yards with six touchdowns and no picks.
No one should be stepping in front of this IU locomotive.
Pick: Indiana -28.5 (Play to -30.5)
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