College Football Best Bets for Week 3: 4 Noon Picks
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
The college football Week 3 slate doesn't have any true marquee matchups to look forward to, but that doesn't mean there isn't betting value to be had.
In fact, our staff has four college football best bets for Week 3 noon games, including one for Alabama vs. Wisconsin, one of the most intriguing duels this weekend.
Dive in below for NCAAF expert picks.
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LSU vs. South Carolina Best Bets
By Dan Keegan
The LSU Tigers head to Columbia as seven-point favorites in a game featured on ESPN’s College GameDay.
The Bayou Bengals were a punching bag after a Week 1 loss to USC and a Brian Kelly press conference meltdown, but there’s still the structure of a quality team here.
Like last year, the Tigers have a strong offense and are shaky on defense, particularly in the secondary.
Luckily for them, South Carolina isn’t the team to expose this. QB LaNorris Sellers is a run-first player. So far on the season, Sellers ranks 112th with a 30.3 QBR. Also, the Gamecocks’ offense is 106th in the nation in EPA/play, so this isn’t a toothsome attack.
South Carolina looks much improved on defense, but it hasn’t had to face an offense of the caliber of LSU’s. It played Old Dominion and Kentucky, who currently rank 103rd and 50th in offensive SP+, respectively.
That’s a far cry from LSU’s sixth. Garrett Nussmeier is a significantly better quarterback with much better weapons than what South Carolina has had to defend.
On the other side of the ball, the Gamecocks’ defense looks improved over last year because they have a great pass rush. They’ve been lights out getting after the quarterback so far in 2024.
Five-star freshman Dylan Stewart has been a revelation, is already a fan favorite and is making regular appearances on Twitter highlight posts. But LSU’s pass blocking is No. 19 in the country, according to PFF grading; both Kentucky and Old Dominion are in the bottom 20.
LSU’s tackles, Will Campbell and Emery Jones Jr., are both first-round NFL draft picks this upcoming summer.
South Carolina scored a surprising upset in Week 2, but in all facets of the game, LSU is a step up in class.
When you consider that LSU is strongest in areas where SC has been exposing opponents (pass rush) and weakest in an area SC is unlikely to exploit (passing attack), the Tigers are my best bet to cover the spread this weekend.
Pick: LSU -7
Oklahoma State vs. Tulsa Best Bets
By Stuckey
While the travel is easy and the crowd should have its fair share of orange, this 11 a.m. local kick in Tulsa sets up as a potential sandwich spot for the Pokes, who survived in double overtime against Arkansas with Utah and Kansas State up next as the games that will make or break their season.
Meanwhile, Tulsa should come out with its hair on fire against one of its in-state big brothers.
While the offensive line situation remains murky, I like what I've seen from quarterback Kirk Francis in limited duty since taking over as the starter late last season.
I came away especially impressed in games against fairly decent G5 defenses in East Carolina (two-point win) and Tulane (two-point loss).
I think the Golden Hurricane can score enough — whether it's early or late — to keep this within three touchdowns against an Oklahoma State defense that still leaves a lot to be desired despite its returning experience.
Plus, the Pokes will now have to make do without their best overall defender in outside linebacker Collin Oliver, who suffered a long-term injury last week against Arkansas. The drop-off to his replacement, Obi Ezeigbo (D-II transfer), looked drastic.
Yes, Oklahoma State is 2-0, but it should've lost easily to Arkansas, which finished with a whopping 648-385 yardage edge.
It also finished with just six more yards than South Dakota State in the opener, yet still won by 24 thanks in part to fourth-down variance, as SDSU went 0-for-4 and OSU went 2-for-2.
On the season, Oklahoma State is now 3-for-4 on fourth downs, while its two opponents have yet to convert on six tries.
Despite sitting pretty at 2-0, Oklahoma State ranks 119th nationally in net yards per play margin (-1.83) — one spot behind Temple.
Running back Ollie Gordon II might just go completely bananas behind an offensive line that should push around the undersized Tulsa defensive front, which does scare me a bit.
However, even in that scenario, the Tulsa offense is still capable of doing enough to stay within this number.
Plus, I'm not sure how much Gundy will push with a lead late with two ranked opponents coming up next, especially after his defense played over 90 snaps last week. Last week's effort could not only lead to some fatigue but also may leave the backdoor open if necessary.
Pick: Tulsa +18.5
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North Texas vs. Texas Tech Best Bets
You mix uptempo teams, horrible defenses and the punishing northwest Texas heat, and you get my favorite over on the board.
Texas Tech’s defense is in shambles through two weeks. The Red Raiders are giving up 515.5 yards per game, making them the most porous Power Four defense in America. And keep in mind, Texas Tech played an FCS school already.
Texas Tech and North Texas love to play fast. With garbage time snaps removed from Texas Tech’s play logs, it’s snapping it a hair below 21 seconds per play.
North Texas also ranks top-20 in plays per game, and it throttled things down against Stephen F. Austin while protecting a 15-point fourth-quarter lead.
It helps that UNT is a live dog in this spot. Its passing attack under Mike Leach protege Eric Morris has the personnel to put up huge numbers.
Transfer quarterback Chandler Morris (no relation) is finally healthy and spinning it in his ideal system. Damon Ward Jr. and DT Sheffield are one of the best G5 receiving tandems and will put pressure on this underwhelming Tech secondary all afternoon.
Tech is also vulnerable in this spot with nine players on the two-deep listed as questionable. That includes All-Big 12 running back Tahj Brooks.
And finally, it’s important to keep an eye on the weather report. Swirling winds can make passing difficult in Lubbock, but as of this Friday morning, winds won’t start gusting in the 15 mph range until two hours after this game wraps up.
What will be on tap is scorching temps in the 95- to 100-degree range.
North Texas got torched in its opener against South Alabama, so I foresee both of these defenses wilting in the second half. I would play this up to 71.
Pick: Over 69.5 (Play to 71)
Alabama vs. Wisconsin Best Bets
Through two weeks, the Badgers have looked less than impressive. They struggled to put 28 points on the board against Western Michigan and then scored only 27 against South Dakota last week.
This is now Year 2 in the new Phil Longo offense that looks nothing like what Wisconsin fans are used to seeing. To be quite honest, the change has not been a good thing so far.
Last year, Wisconsin was good from a Success Rate standpoint, but it was one of the least explosive offenses in the country. The Badgers finished 125th in big plays, which caused them to finish 83rd EPA/Play.
In an attempt to fix the offense, they brought in Tyler Van Dyke from Miami, but it hasn't worked so far.
Against Western Michigan and South Dakota, Van Dyke has averaged under 6.5 yards per attempt with only two big-time throws. Now, he's going to step up multiple classes when he faces Alabama.
Alabama head coach Kalen DeBoer deserves a lot of credit for keeping the Crimson Tide's front seven mainly intact.
They return five of their top six defensive linemen and their best two linebackers from last season, which is massive going up against a Wisconsin rushing attack that ranked top-15 in Success Rate last season.
So far, Wisconsin has struggled to get Chez Mellusi going on the ground, as he's averaging just 3.8 yards per carry with only one run of 10-plus yards.
So, if the pressure's on Van Dyke to throw in this game against a brand-new but very talented Alabama secondary, the Badgers are going to continue to struggle to move the ball.
Jalen Milroe was nearly perfect against Western Kentucky but really struggled against South Florida last Saturday, going only 16-of-27 for 194 yards.
The thing with Milroe is that he wasn't very good when he had to face top-level defenses last season. Unsurprisingly, his worst games came against Texas, Georgia and Michigan.
Wisconsin has one of the best linebacking corps and secondaries in the Big Ten this season and held Western Michigan and South Dakota to a combined 165 yards passing.
Even though Longo has come in and picked up Wisconsin's tempo, it hasn't resulted in any improvement on offense or generated explosive plays. Alabama's tempo also hasn't really changed from last season, sitting at around 27 seconds per play, which is below the FBS average.
The winds are going to be blowing at 11 mph during the game, which does trigger our windy unders trend in Bet Labs. That system has hit at a 56% rate historically.
I only have 48.2 points projected for this game, so I like the value we have here.
Pick: Under 49.5
