Let's close out Week 13 with a bang.
Georgia Tech hosts Pitt in a game with massive ACC Title implications, the Hilltoppers of Western Kentucky travel to Death Valley, and a down-and-out Air Force squad hosts an up-and-coming New Mexico team.
Read about all that and more in our College Football Best Bets and Saturday Night Picks for November 22.
College Football Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college football betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7 p.m. | |
  | 7:45 p.m. | |
  | 7 p.m. | |
  | 8 p.m. | |
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Pitt vs. Georgia Tech Pick
Georgia Tech's unwillingness to gamble in scoring position may be a critical aspect against Pitt.
The Yellow Jackets' drop-off in red-zone touchdown rate is a reflection of playing it safe, as Brent Key's team has attempted only nine fourth downs this season.
Despite being a methodical offense that often generates scoring opportunities, Haynes King hasn't created explosives at a high level, with Georgia Tech ranking 102nd nationally in Rush EPA.
Pitt's defensive front has been fantastic against power and counter concepts, which could limit the Yellow Jackets.
Mason Heintschel isn't expected to see pressure despite the rotation at left tackle due to injuries. Georgia Tech's 113th-ranked pass rush has produced just 18 sacks this season, signaling that the freshman quarterback should thrive in a clean pocket.
The Panthers have also created pass explosives at a top-15 rate, which could be problematic for a Yellow Jackets defense that has been dominated in quarters coverage.
Action Network's betting power ratings line this game right in line with the market, favoring Georgia Tech thanks to home-field advantage.
There's an expectation that Pitt will take over in the second half, given the current Middle 8 rankings.
The Panthers rank 16th in the Middle 8 scoring differential, compared to the Yellow Jackets' 119th — an area that was an issue against NC State and Boston College.
Read the entire Pitt-Georgia Tech preview and more in the Week 13 edition of Collin's Card:
Pick: Pitt +2.5 or Better
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Western Kentucky vs. LSU Pick
By Stuckey
I make this spread over 24 points, so this is my biggest edge, from a pure numbers perspective, for the entire weekend.
It's fair to question whether LSU will care about this non-conference matchup after a thrilling win over Arkansas, with a chance to play spoiler at Oklahoma up next.
However, while I certainly could be wrong, I don't really have any concerns from a motivational standpoint.
After all, this is LSU's final home game of the season and will be played in primetime. Plus, the Tigers seem to be playing very hard for interim head coach Frank Wilson.
I actually have more questions about how Western Kentucky will approach this likely unwinnable game with a huge showdown next week against Jacksonville State that will likely decide its chances at getting to the conference championship game.
Is the staff spending the week preparing for that game? Do they sit anybody dealing with nagging injuries? Both are certainly possible.
Meanwhile, LSU could get linebacker Whit Weeks back from injury, which would provide a considerable boost to an already nasty defense.
It doesn't look like Garrett Nussmeier will suit up at quarterback, but I'm fine with Michael van Buren under center for this matchup, especially since Nussmeier has been playing hurt for most of the season.
While the Nus Bus has not lived up to the hype, the primary culprit for LSU's underwhelming season has been poor offensive line play. The protection hasn't been good enough against SEC fronts, and there has been no run game to speak of.
That should change on Saturday night against a Western Kentucky defense that ranks outside the top-100 in yards before contact allowed and gets almost no pressure (bottom-10 in sack EPA) despite playing one of the nation's easiest schedules.
Speaking of strength of schedules, this is one of the widest disparities of the weekend.
Per Sagarin, LSU has played the sixth-most difficult slate to date, while Western Kentucky ranks 154th (including FCS teams).
The difference between this year's extremely deep SEC and a very down C-USA is hard to put into words. Just take a look at the Hilltopper wins this season:
- Sam Houston
- North Alabama
- Nevada (out-gained)
- Missouri State (Bears quarterback got hurt in close WKU win)
- Delaware (out-gained by almost 100 yards in a flukey WKU win)
- Louisiana Tech (by 1 in OT; needed an improbable late 4th down conversion)
- New Mexico State
- Middle Tennessee
It doesn't get much easier than that path to eight wins with a couple that probably should have been losses. In fact, I don't have any of those eight teams power rated inside the top-100.
Since taking over as the starting quarterback, Rodney Tisdale has had two impressive starts, but both came at home against bottom-feeders (NMSU and La Tech). His numbers under pressure remain very worrisome, especially given the lack of quality competition. The freshman may make quite a few critical mistakes in a very hostile environment against a defense that can certainly throw some exotic looks at him.
Western Kentucky (which also lost at home by 19 to FIU) has really only faced one (barely) above-average team in Toledo in a game it lost 45-21 on the road. This is a significant step up in class for the Hilltoppers, while it will provide a nice reprieve for an LSU squad that could use a feel-good blowout victory after a disappointing year.
As long as the Tigers care, they should be able to stretch their legs and win this by more than three touchdowns.
Check out all of Stuckey's Week 13 Situational Spots here:
Pick: LSU -22.5 or Better
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New Mexico vs. Air Force Pick
Disaster struck Air Force last week when quarterback Liam Szarka went down with a season-ending injury.
For starters, the Falcons have not been great. They are 3-7, lost both rivalry games, and have nothing left to play for.
But at least they were fun to watch on offense with Szarka. He accounted for 129.4 passing yards and 92.2 rushing yards per game running this triple option attack. He leads the Mountain West with 13 rushing touchdowns. Nobody else on the Falcons has more than four. He is their entire offense and an unspeakable loss.
Especially given how disastrous this defense is. Air Force ranks 134th nationally in Success Rate allowed. The Falcons are allowing 7.4 yards per play, and teams have been able to pick whether to beat them through the air or on the ground, often doing both.
New Mexico has a balanced offense with Jack Layne at quarterback and a three-headed backfield of DJ McKinney, Damon Blankston, and Scottre Humphrey. Jason Eck is an offense wizard and should have no problem scheming up points against this defense.
Meanwhile, the Lobos’ defense has been playing well of late. They have been dominant against the run, holding three of their past four opponents under 90 rushing yards.
New Mexico is still alive for the Mountain West Championship game, while Air Force has nothing left to play for and just lost their starting quarterback.
The drop-off to Kemper Hodges is massive, and I don’t think this number has adjusted enough.
Check out all of Ianniello's Group of 5 picks for Week 13 here:
Pick: New Mexico -4 or Better
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Arizona State vs. Colorado Player Prop Pick
By Doug Ziefel
Jeff Sims is a collegiate journeyman quarterback at this point, having started in multiple programs.
In recent weeks, he's received another opportunity to start under center for Arizona State.
Sims' dual-threat ability makes him a unique task for opposing defenses, and he has run quite a bit in his handful of starts already. He is second on the team in rushing attempts, while having attempted more than 30 passes in a game only once this season.
This week, he faces a Colorado secondary that is above average, ranking 56th nationally in passing yards allowed.
However, Colorado's offense also affects Sims. The Buffaloes run the ball heavily and will eat up the clock.
The schemes of these two offenses should minimize the number of times Sims throws in this one, which makes his passing yards total far too high.
Pick: Jeff Sims Under 198.5 Passing Yards
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North Texas vs. Rice Pick
This game triggered one of our Action PRO betting systems, powered by Evan Abrams.
Road Trip Luck Low O/U Level II is a college football system that focuses on conference games where recent turnover fortune skews perception.
When an opponent has benefited from positive turnover margins in their last two games, the market often inflates their chances of continuing that success, even though turnovers tend to regress to the mean.
The system looks at situations where the other team is on a losing streak away from home, which further tilts public opinion toward the opponent despite underlying weaknesses.
By narrowing in on games with closing totals of 55.5 or lower, scoring expectations are already modest, which makes it harder for supposed favorites to pull away and cover inflated numbers.
These conditions create opportunities to fade turnover-driven perception and back teams that are undervalued in lower-scoring conference matchups.
Want more Action PRO betting systems? Download the award-winning Action Network App:
Pick: North Texas -18
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