The No. 11 BYU Cougars (9-1) take on the Cincinnati Bearcats (7-3) in Cincinnati, Ohio. Kickoff is set for 8 p.m. ET on FOX.
BYU is favored by 2.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -135. Cincinnati, meanwhile, enters as a +2.5 underdog and is +114 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 54.5 total points.
Here’s my BYU vs. Cincinnati prediction and college football picks for Saturday, November 22.
BYU vs Cincinnati Prediction, Picks
- BYU vs. Cincinnati Pick: Over 54 or Better
My Cincinnati vs. BYU best bet is on both teams to go over the total. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
BYU vs Cincinnati Odds, Prediction
| BYU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -115 | 56.5 -108o / -112u | -142 |
| Cincinnati Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -105 | 56.5 -108o / -112u | +120 |
- BYU vs Cincinnati Spread: BYU -2.5, Cincinnati +2.5
- BYU vs Cincinnati Over/Under: 56.5
- BYU vs Cincinnati Moneyline: BYU ML -142, Cincinnati ML +120
BYU vs Cincinnati Game Preview
Why BYU Will Win
BYU returned to Provo las week for a blowout victory over TCU, maintaining the inside track to the Big 12 Championship game.
Head coach Kilani Sitake has no room for mistakes in order to force a rematch against Texas Tech, needing a win in Nippert Stadium against Cincinnati.
After struggles with health in a road loss to the Red Raiders, the combination of quarterback Bear Bachmeier and running back LJ Martin dominated TCU for 6.2 yards per play.
BYU scored on all five red-zone trips while converting 8-of-15 attempts on third and fourth down.
The BYU offense ranks top-10 in quality drives, using a heavy rush tendency with zone read concepts.
Inside zone has been the primary driver in 11 and 12 personnel, but the explosive ground gains have all come via outside zone this season.
That dynamic of the Cougars' ground attack could be problematic for Cincinnati, which has posted a low 38% Success Rate against inside zone.
Defensive coordinator Jay Hill continues to produce one of the best pass defenses in the FBS. BYU's nickel defense will show multiple looks, including man, Cover 1 and Cover 3 tendencies.
The Cougars remain top-25 in creating a contested catch and top-15 in third-down defense.
The defense does have issues tackling against certain run concepts, particularly inside zone read with light personnel in the box.
Why Cincinnati Will Win
A two-game Big 12 losing streak has taken the wind out of the sails for the Bearcats. Injuries have played a role, as running back Evan Pryor and wide receiver Caleb Goodie both missed a recent loss to Arizona.
Pryor had been a stick of dynamite for the outside zone offense, averaging 4.5 yards after first contact with 17 explosive runs.
Goodie was the primary wideout for the team, averaging 18.8 yards per catch with 1.8 yards per route run.
Head coach Scott Satterfield said Goodie will be ready to go and Pryor is very close. Both of those options would be a massive boost for quarterback Brendan Sorsby.
The Bearcats defense has struggled to disrupt opponents, ranking outside the top 100 in Havoc. Cincinnati fields nearly the worst pass rush, per PFF, along with a rank of 113th in creating a contested catch.
Recent opponents have boat-raced the Cincinnati defense, gaining a wealth of yards. Both Arizona and Utah gained over 64% of available yards against the Bearcats, well above the national average of 44% for all FBS offenses.
How To Make BYU vs Cincinnati Picks
The Cincinnati defense has trended downward over the past eight quarters of play, allowing 75 points and at least 475 yards per contest.
The biggest question is its ability to stop a BYU offense that mauls teams in standard downs with Bachmeier and Martin on the ground.
Considering the Bearcats' defensive struggles with inside zone read, there's an expectation that BYU will create multiple scoring opportunities.
Cincinnati sits outside the top 110 in Defensive Line Yards and Stuff Rate, which will be a big negative against the Cougars' ground attack.
The Bearcats had been feasting on Big 12 defenses until the injuries to Pryor and Goodie. Both players are expected to return to an offense that ranks fourth nationally in offensive momentum killer.
The Bearcats have been even better in scoring position, averaging 4.9 points on 61 possessions that crossed the opponent's 40-yard line.
BYU has been exploited on the ground by teams using inside zone, a primary run concept used by Cincinnati.
Cincinnati does run one of the faster offenses in FBS, averaging 24.5 seconds per play. With the Bearcats getting two explosive playmakers back on offense and BYU facing a softer rush defense, scoring opportunities should be abundant.
Although there are no Pryor rushing props in the market as of writing, he should get over his posted total considering the Cougars' poor zone-read defense.
Pick: Over 54 or Better
BYU vs Cincinnati Betting Trends to Know
