2025 College Football Conference Championship Betting Trends: Stats & Notes to Know for Week 15

I don't put too much stock into against-the-spread trends, since most are usually just noise, and betting markets adjust over time to the ones that are not.

That said, at a bare minimum, I do find them a tad bit interesting for unique, one-off events like conference championships in college football.

Here's a quick summary of the ones I dug up to help you prepare for the upcoming championship weekend.

Unlike last year — when no team was listed as a touchdown-plus favorite for the first time since 2006 — two are favored by double digits, with Texas Tech laying 12.5 points vs. BYU and James Madison favored by a whopping 23.5 points.

While the Dukes aren't the largest conference championship favorite we've ever seen, they could become only the seventh team to close as a 23-plus-point favorite since 2006.

For what it's worth, the previous six went 5-1 ATS (83.3%), covering by nearly 12 points per game on average.

• 2005: Texas (-24.5) beat Colorado, 70-3
• 2011: Oregon (-31) beat UCLA, 49-31
• 2013: Florida State (-30) beat Duke, 45-7
• 2016: Alabama (-24) beat Florida, 54-16
• 2018: Clemson (-28) beat Pitt, 42-10
• 2019: Clemson (-29) beat Virginia, 62-17

In all conference championship games since 2005, underdogs have gone 76-69-4 (52.4% ATS), per Action Labs.

True home and road underdogs have performed better at 28-22-1 (56.0%) than neutral-site underdogs at 48-47-3 (50.5%), which I chalk up primarily to random noise.

Here are a few other underdog-related nuggets:

• Underdogs catching more than 7 points: 30-30 ATS (50.0%)
• Best conference underdogs: MAC (14-5-1, 73.7%)
• Worst conference underdogs: Big 12 (4-10, 28.6%)

Unranked teams have also enjoyed a decent amount of past success ATS against ranked teams in conference title games, going 16-10 (61.5%) with an average cover margin of about a touchdown per game — although Tulane failed to cover in that spot in 2024.

For this weekend, Duke (+3.5 vs. Virginia) and Troy (+23.5 at JMU) fit the mold.

If good teams win and great teams cover, we have plenty of great teams in action this weekend, which features the class of college football when it comes to getting to the window in 2025.

In fact, 11 of the 18 teams on the slate finished at 8-4 ATS or better:

• Texas Tech: 11-1 ATS (best in nation)
• Ohio State: 10-1-1 ATS
• North Texas: 10-2 ATS
• BYU: 9-3 ATS
• Alabama: 8-3-1 ATS
• Western Michigan: 8-3-1 ATS
• Miami (Ohio): 8-4 ATS
• James Madison: 8-4 ATS
• Troy: 8-4 ATS
• Virginia: 8-4 ATS
• Kennesaw: 8-4 ATS

The only teams that failed to reach at least .500 against the number include:

• Tulane: 5-6-1 ATS
• Georgia: 5-7 ATS

The Dawgs enter conference championship weekend with the worst ATS record among all 18 teams for the second straight season.

This weekend, six of the nine matchups involve teams seeking revenge for a loss during the regular season:

• Georgia vs. Alabama (Bulldogs lost, 24-21, at home)
• UNLV at Boise (Rebels lost, 56-31, on the road)
• Kennesaw at Jacksonville State (Owls lost, 35-26, on the road)
• BYU vs. Texas Tech (Cougars lost, 29-7, on the road)
• Western Michigan vs. Miami (Ohio) (Broncos lost, 26-17, on the road)
• Duke vs. Virginia (Blue Devils lost, 34-17, at home)

You may be wondering if teams that lost the first contest have an edge the second time around in the conference title game. Not from an against-the-spread perspective, as they've gone just 29-29 since 2005.

However, 39 of the 58 (67.2%) teams improved their scoring margin in the second meeting by an average of 8.7 points. That includes four underdogs or less-than-field-goal favorites that lost in OT — three of which didn’t cover.

I'd say the team that is more likely to make bigger adjustments after losing the first meeting holds a slight edge — although the market appears to generally price these spots efficiently.

It's pretty fascinating to look at the spread adjustments from the first meeting to this upcoming weekend in these revenge spots:

• Duke from -5.5 at home to +3.5 on a neutral field (Charlotte)
• Georgia -2.5 at home to -2.5 on a neutral field (Atlanta)
• Texas Tech -13.5 at home to -12.5 on a neutral field (Arlington)
• Boise State -13 at home to -3.5 at home
• Western Michigan +2 on the road to +2 on a neutral field
• Kennesaw State -3.5 on the road to -2.5 on the road

It’s worth noting that Boise State's starting quarterback, Maddux Madsen, is set to return from injury, and Miami (Ohio) has moved on to its third starting quarterback of the season after Dequan Finn (who played in the first meeting vs. WMU) left the program.

Since 2005, overs in conference championship games have gone 76-72-1 (51.3%).

That's nothing out of the ordinary, as you'd expect, especially with closing totals getting even more efficient later in the season and a market that continues to get sharper with each passing season.

For what it's worth, the Mountain West and Big 12 have been the best under conferences in championship games at 9-3 and 9-5, respectively.

MAC unders have also been profitable at 13-7 since 2005, staying under by about six points per game on average. Six straight MAC championships have stayed under the closing total.

Meanwhile, the SEC has treated over bettors the best at 13-6-1 (68.4%), with all of those premier athletes getting to play on a fast track in a temperature-controlled environment.

Speaking of which, BYU played Texas Tech earlier this season in windier conditions in Lubbock, which won’t be a concern this time around in Jerry World.

Here are some other total nuggets:

• Totals of 45 points or lower have gone 9-4 to the over, which only applies to Miami (OH) vs. Western Michigan.
• At 48 or lower, overs have gone 19-14, which would bring a few more potential matchups into the mix.
• Overs in indoor venues are 38-30-1 (55.9%) since 2005, clearing the closing total by an average of approximately 2.0 points per game — slightly higher than the upward dome adjustment I personally make of about 1.5 points. For reference, conferences playing indoors this weekend include the Big Ten, Big 12, MAC and SEC.
• Freezing temperatures are expected in Harrisonburg, Virginia, for the CUSA Championship. Since 2005, conference title unders in those conditions have gone 7-4, staying under by about six points per game on average.
• Among the teams in action this weekend, the three best under teams this season were Ohio State, Alabama and Tulane, all finishing 8-4 to the under.
• Conversely, North Texas and Duke were over machines at 9-3 to the over. Jacksonville State and Indiana also rewarded over bettors with an 8-4 record.

• Including the postseason, Georgia head coach Kirby Smart has gone 36-22 ATS (62.1%) vs. ranked opponents. Only Urban Meyer has returned more profit for bettors in that role since 2005. However, Smart is just 3-5 ATS (and 1-7 SU) vs. ranked Alabama.
• Speaking of the Tide, head coach Kalen DeBoer has also been great against the number vs. ranked foes with a 16-5-2 ATS mark (76.2%), covering by 5.7 points per game.
• Boise State will go for its 10th straight victory over UNLV since 2011, which includes four wins (and covers) since 2023 — two of which came in the previous two Mountain West Championship Games.
• Tulane has been one of the most profitable home teams over the past eight seasons with a 36-20 ATS mark (64.3%). That includes a 9-2 ATS record (81.8%) as a home 'dog over that span.
• Miami (Ohio) head coach Chuck Martin has historically thrived as an underdog (46-32-1 ATS), but he has gone 0-4 against the closing number as a pup this season.
• Since losing to Michigan last year, Ohio State has gone 14-1-1 ATS (93.3%), covering by over a touchdown per game on average.

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