The North Carolina Tar Heels take on the Duke Blue Devils in Durham, North Carolina. Tip-off is set for 6:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Duke is favored by 14 points on the spread with a moneyline of -1100. The total is set at 148.5 points.
Here are my UNC vs. Duke predictions and college basketball picks for February 1, 2025.
UNC vs Duke Prediction
My Pick: Duke -13.5 (Play to -15)
My UNC vs Duke best bet is on the Blue Devils spread, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
North Carolina vs Duke Odds
| UNC Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+14 -110 | 148.5 -110 / -110 | +700 |
| Duke Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-14 -110 | 148.5 -110 / -110 | -1100 |
- UNC vs Duke spread: Duke -14
- UNC vs Duke over/under: 148.5 points
- UNC vs Duke moneyline: Duke -1100, UNC +700
- UNC vs Duke best bet: Duke -13.5 (Play to -15)
UNC vs Duke College Basketball Preview
The best rivalry in college basketball is back. The North Carolina Tar Heels, who need a win in the worst way, head to Duke, which nearly took a devastating home loss to NC State this week.
North Carolina has lost three of its past four games and is staring down a potential fourth loss out of five.
The Tar Heels' offense is very predictable; sometimes having a plethora of shot creators can be a blessing and curse.
For instance, UNC ranks 228th in assist rate and tends to fall in love with hero ball. A lot of that falls on star senior RJ Davis and freshman Ian Jackson.
Davis is down to 17.6 points per game this year and is shooting just 39% from the field and 30% from deep. He just hasn’t figured it out this season, so we’ll see if Davis gets it rolling in this one.
Perhaps the intense rivalry game and his final showing in Cameron Indoor brings the best out of him, but trying to beat Duke’s length in one-on-one situations is a looming disaster.
Nothing stands out about North Carolina — beyond the name brand. Hubert Davis doesn’t have a true identity as a head coach and it shows. The Heels rank 48th in offensive efficiency and 49th in defensive efficiency, which is fittingly mediocre.
Perhaps the biggest advantage in Duke’s favor is size. The Blue Devils' entire rotation is littered with players who are 6-foot-5 or taller, giving them the tallest average height in America.
Conversely, North Carolina ranks 322nd in average height. The smaller backcourt of 6-foot-0 Davis, 6-foot-1 Elliot Cadeau and 6-foot-3 Seth Trimble could be a disaster.
Duke was sleep walking through the first half against NC State. The Blue Devils trailed by a stunning 13 points, but they still managed to secure a 10-point victory.
I can’t see Duke coming out flat for this matchup. I’m guessing NC State’s struggles and the dreaded lookahead spot played a role in Duke’s rare off game.
Cooper Flagg is the best player in America and it’s not an exaggeration. The freshman phenom from Maine is the clubhouse leader for National Player of Year, as he's averaging 19.1 points, 8.0 rebounds and 4.1 assists per game.
Flagg does literally everything for this Blue Devils team. North Carolina simply doesn’t have a player who can match Flagg, as he’s taller than the Heels' starting center, Ven-Allen Lubin.
Drake Powell will likely slide into the lineup in lieu of Trimble, but he’s still three inches shorter than Flagg.
Offensively, shooting is the key. Flagg serves as Duke’s primary facilitator, and he forces teams to choose between defending him one-on-one or helping and leaving shooters.
It’s a losing situation proposition either way if Tyrese Proctor and Kon Knueppel are hitting from 3. Knueppel is hot of late, scoring 13+ points in four of five games. Meanwhile, Proctor has just one double-figure game in that span.
Additionally, Duke is one of two programs that rank top-10 in offensive and defensive efficiency on KenPom. Defending inside the arc is the strength of Duke’s defense, as it's holding teams to a jaw-dropping 41% shooting from 2. Opponents shoot just 31% from downtown against Duke’s stout defense, too.
Simply put, there’s no easy path to solving this defensive riddle. The easiest path is shooting well from deep since that’s the one swing stat in this game. NC State just went 10-of-22 from deep, but it still wasn’t enough to really scare Duke.
Plus, North Carolina’s isolation-heavy approach isn’t the best way to beat this dominant defense.
The number for a North Carolina vs. Duke tout, but KenPom gives Duke a 15-point edge.
