The Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons take on the Detroit Mercy Titans in Detroit, MI, on Thursday, Dec. 5. Tip-off is set for 1 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
Purdue Fort Wayne is favored by 8 points on the spread with a moneyline of -360. The total is set at 148 points.
Here are my Purdue Fort Wayne vs. Detroit predictions and college basketball picks for December 5, 2024.
Purdue Fort Wayne vs Detroit Prediction
My Pick: Purdue Fort Wayne -8 (Play to -9.5)
My Purdue Fort Wayne vs Detroit best bet is on the Mastodons spread, with the best odds currently available at FanDuel. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Purdue Fort Wayne vs Detroit Odds, Lines, Pick
| Purdue Fort Wayne Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8 -110 | 148.5 -108o / -112u | -360 |
| Detroit Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8 -110 | 148.5 -108o / -112u | +280 |
- Purdue Fort Wayne vs Detroit spread: Purdue Fort Wayne -8
- Purdue Fort Wayne vs Detroit over/under: 148.5 points
- Purdue Fort Wayne vs Detroit moneyline: Purdue Fort Wayne -360, Detroit +280
- Purdue Fort Wayne vs Detroit best bet: Purdue Fort Wayne -8 (Play to -9.5)
My Purdue Fort Wayne vs Detroit College Basketball Betting Preview
The Mastodons and Titans will kick off another season of ever-entertaining Horizon League conference play on Thursday, and I don’t know how Detroit stops Fort Wayne.
Jon Coffman is an analytically friendly coach who preaches transition buckets and a high rim-and-3 rate. The Dons run a guard-friendly read-and-react offense that lives on rim pressure, drive-and-kicks and pick-and-pops. Their guard-friendly defense is built on perimeter pressure and turnovers to fuel fast-break points.
That poses a big issue for Detroit, which struggles to limit turnovers (260th nationally in turnover rate) and to stop transition buckets (1.07 transition PPP allowed, 26th percentile).
The Titans have allowed double-digit fast-break points in five of their eight D-I outings this season, while Fort Wayne has scored double-digit fast-break points in five of their eight D-I outings, peaking with a 19-point fast-break effort against East Texas A&M last Saturday.
Even worse, Detroit runs a hole-filled zone defense that allows many 3-point attempts while struggling to protect the rim. For some odd reason, the Titans have excelled at denying mid-range attempts while allowing plenty of at-the-rim and 3-point opportunities, which contradicts everything I know about basketball.
Even worse, the zone allows an endless stream of high-quality 3-point looks, as the Titans allow the seventh-most unguarded catch-and-shoot jumpers per game nationally (13.2)
Of course, Detroit’s performance isn’t wholly unexpected. The Titans have a new head coach, Mark Montgomery (formerly of Northern Illinois), working with an almost entirely new roster (11.6% minutes continuity, 313th nationally). They’re working through issues in real time, and they will have to take plenty of shots to the chin before making meaningful progress.
To make matters worse, Detroit senior guard Mak Manciel – one of the few impactful returning players from last year’s squad — suffered a gruesome ankle injury against Ball State on November 20 and hasn’t played since. He averaged double-digits scoring before going down, posting a 30-point effort against Niagara.
Continuity plays a considerable role in early-season college basketball betting. In November and December, the teams with more returning production, cohesion and chemistry will outperform teams with less.
Few teams nationally have less returning production than Detroit, but zero teams have more than Fort Wayne, which leads the nation in minutes continuity (76.6%). Every key player returned from last season’s 23-13 team. The Mastodons are loaded with talent and shooting, led by Jalen Jackson and Rasheed Bello’s 34 points per game.
I’m banking on Fort Wayne forcing turnovers, earning easy buckets in transition, and sinking a million wide-open 3-point looks in a relatively comfortable double-digit victory.
There is one issue: rebounds. Detroit has been obliterating the offensive boards, while Fort Wayne hasn’t kept anyone off the glass because the ‘Dons are tiny, ranking 360th nationally in average height.
That said, Fort Wayne’s ability to force and avoid turnovers should keep the shot-volume battle from getting out of hand, and the Mastodons will undoubtedly win the 3-point volume battle against the brutal rim-reliant, zone-defense combination that the Titans run.
And — ultimately — Fort Wayne’s continuity should win the day.
