The Michigan Wolverines take on the Oklahoma Sooners in Charlotte, NC. Tip-off is set for 9 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
Michigan is favored by 3.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -165. The total is set at 149.5 points.
Here are my Michigan vs. Oklahoma predictions and college basketball picks for December 18, 2024.
Michigan vs Oklahoma Prediction
My Pick: Michigan -2.5 (Play to -4)
My Michigan vs Oklahoma best bet is on the Wolverines spread, with the best odds currently available at BetMGM. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Michigan vs Oklahoma Odds, Lines, Pick
| Michigan Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -110 | 149.5 -110 / -110 | -165 |
| Oklahoma Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 149.5 -110 / -110 | +140 |
- Michigan vs Oklahoma spread: Michigan -2.5
- Michigan vs Oklahoma over/under: 149.5 points
- Michigan vs Oklahoma moneyline: Michigan -165, Oklahoma +140
- Michigan vs Oklahoma best bet: Michigan -2.5 (Play to -4)
My Michigan vs Oklahoma College Basketball Betting Preview
Michigan Basketball
After a tumultuous past couple of seasons in Ann Arbor, the hiring of Dusty May reinvigorated a passionate basketball fanbase. The Wolverines have a real shot to battle for a Big Ten title in May's first season, and they enter this game fresh off a loss to Arkansas — another SEC school.
The Wolverines are terrific on both ends of the floor, ranking 39th in offensive efficiency and 15th in defensive efficiency. Looking deeper at the numbers, Michigan boasts a 58% effective field goal percentage (15th nationally) and it shoots 35.8% from 3 (86th nationally) and a dominant 61% on 2s (eighth nationally).
The one thing that makes Michigan's offense so dangerous is the unique big-to-big pick-and-roll. The versatility of Danny Wolf is a major plus, as he basically serves as Michigan's point guard with his exceptional poise in the pick-and-roll game.
In the Wolverines' upset win over Wisconsin in Madison, Coach May introduced a steady diet of big-to-big pick-and-rolls with Wolf and Vladislav Goldin, and Wolf collected five-plus assists in two of the past three games.
The one knock on Wolf's game is his turnovers. It's nothing new for a 7-footer to struggle with turnovers, but this is also a team-wide issue. If the Wolverines can find a way to chop down their turnover rate from a bloated 22%, they have the upside to be a top-10 offense in America.
Additionally, Michigan has a size advantage over just about every team. It's not just the two towering 7-footers, but the three starting guards are 6-foot-3 or taller, and Roddy Gayle Jr. and Nimari Burnett are 6-foot-5.
The Wolverines' size is a major plus in terms of winning the battle of 2s — opponents shoot just 43% from 2 against Michigan compared to its own 61%.
Oklahoma Basketball
The Sooners are up to No. 14 in the most recent AP Poll and are 10-0 overall. They certainly have a good chance to reach the NCAA Tournament for the first time under Porter Moser.
However, is Oklahoma legitimately this good, or is it reaping the benefits of a weak schedule? Perhaps a bit of both, as the Sooners' non-conference schedule ranks 313th, per KenPom, and Arizona is the only top-50 team they have played in the first 10 games.
Moser has undergone a huge stylistic change over the past few seasons in Norman. Given the current transfer portal landscape, it's not surprising to see such a drastic shift in play-style in just one season.
The Sooners have found a ton of success by pressuring full-court, leading to a 22% turnover rate (19th nationally).
Oklahoma has a veteran group of four seniors to offset some youth from freshman phenom Jeremiah Fears. Moser gave the keys to the offense to Fears from day one, and he's dazzled to the tune of 16.9 points and 4.7 assists per game.
The two weaknesses in Fears' game are shooting (29% from 3) and turnovers.
Besides Fears, much of the roster is shooting well from 3. The Sooners attempt treys on 45% of their field goal attempts and convert on 36% (77th nationally).
The portal adds of Duke Miles and Brycen Goodine have helped improve the shooting, as both are connecting on over 40% from 3.
I also didn't know if Oklahoma had a true "star" entering the year, but Jalon Moore has emerged as one. One of the few returning Sooners, Moore is a defensive ace with an improved offensive skill set, leading to his team-best 17.6 points.
The biggest stride in Moore's game has come as a shooter. As a senior, Moore is attempting more 3s than ever, and he is shooting 37% from downtown.
Oklahoma's easiest path to victory is winning the turnover battle. With the Sooners' propensity for forcing giveaways and Michigan's lazy passing, that seems like a guarantee.
However, Michigan is equally great at forcing turnovers, so Oklahoma's offense will have a tough test ahead.
Michigan vs. Oklahoma Betting Analysis
I feel like one team here has reached its peak, while the other has plenty of room to grow.
I'm banking on Michigan — the team with room to grow — to beat the higher-ranked team here.
Michigan has an advantage in numerous areas, but the biggest — both figuratively and literally — is on the offensive glass.
The Sooners' interior size is lacking, which leads to just a 31% defensive rebound rate.
Conversely, Michigan is elite at crashing the offensive boards, securing an extra shot on 36% of its possessions.
The Wolverines are the move here.
