The Missouri Tigers take on the Arkansas Razorbacks in Fayetteville, Arkansas. Tip-off is set for 8 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Missouri is favored by 1.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -130. The total is set at 149.5 points.
Here’s my Missouri vs. Arkansas predictions and college basketball picks for February 22, 2025.
Missouri vs Arkansas Prediction
My Pick: Missouri -1.5
My Missouri vs Arkansas best bet is on the Tigers spread, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Missouri vs Arkansas Odds, Spread
| Missouri Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -110 | 149.5 -110o / -110u | -130 |
| Arkansas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -110 | 149.5 -110o / -110u | +110 |
- Missouri vs Arkansas spread: Missouri -1.5
- Missouri vs Arkansas over/under: 149.5 points
- Missouri vs Arkansas moneyline: Missouri -130, Arkansas +110
- Missouri vs Arkansas best bet: Missouri -1.5
My Missouri vs Arkansas NCAAB Betting Preview
The Missouri Tigers are rolling right now. Not since 2012 has the Tiger fanbase had so much excitement (don’t look up how that season ended).
Per Bart Torvik, since the turn of the new year, Mizzou has been the fourth-best team in the nation, and the eye test emphatically backs that up.
With its three-game winning streak, Mizzou is in prime position to finish in the top four of the SEC standings, meaning it would receive a double-bye to the quarterfinals of the conference tournament.
The Tigers handled Arkansas with little issue in their first meeting this season, winning by 18 in front of a packed house in Columbia a little over a month ago. Mizzou scored 1.19 PPP while holding Arkansas to 0.93 PPP – it was a thorough beatdown that featured hot Tiger shooting and a dominant free throw attempt discrepancy.
In that game, Mizzou shut down Arkansas’ lethal transition attack and stifled ball screens, rendering John Calipari’s offense useless.
This Mizzou team is just ridiculously tough to beat. Dennis Gates’ roster depth is among the best in the country, featuring multiple guys who can lead the squad on any given night.
The Tigers’ offensive footprint is unique in that they lead the SEC (and country) in free throw attempt rate, also rank No. 2 in the league in 3-point attempt rate and 3-point percentage.
When a team can light it up from deep on high volume and put pressure on the rim at an elite level, it's just about unstoppable.
Per CBB Analytics, Mizzou ranks 35th nationally in 3-point percentage and 12th in field goal percentage at the rim.
While Arkansas has solid rim protection and a defender in Adou Thiero who should theoretically match up well with Tigers star Mark Mitchell, the Hogs are still susceptible on the glass, and Mitchell poured in 17 points in the first game.
Mizzou’s transition attack is deadly, as well. Per Synergy, the Tigers rank ninth in field goal attempt rate in transition and 34th in PPP in transition. Arkansas has been good defending on the run this year, but it lost the open floor battle to the Tigers in the first meeting.
Arkansas, to its credit, has looked like a different team since the first game. After the loss to Mizzou, the Razorbacks sat 0-5 in the SEC.
Since then, they’re 4-5 and have played themselves back onto the bubble. An injury to freshman Boogie Fland has opened the door to more Johnell Davis minutes and usage, which has proven to be a very good thing.
But this Razorbacks offense still isn’t very good. Ranking 14th in the SEC in adjusted efficiency, Arkansas severely lacks shooting. The Hogs rely on transition, ball screens and drive-and-kick action to score points, and Mizzou can defend all three at a high level with its positional versatility and athleticism.
Per Synergy, Mizzou ranks in the 88th percentile in PPP allowed in transition, and it shut down the Razorbacks' transition attack in the first game.
Perhaps at home Arkansas can manufacture a little more offense. The Hogs can certainly put pressure on the rim, but there's real concern as to whether they can beat the Tigers' zone when Gates mixes in those tricky looks.
Arkansas has been one of the most zoned teams in the country this season, and for good reason – they can't shoot and have been poor against zone looks all year.
This spot favors Arkansas, with the Razorbacks’ backs against the wall needing a big win for their NCAA Tournament resume.
Mizzou comes in riding high into a hostile environment and perhaps has started to read the headlines its suddenly getting.
But on the other hand, this Tiger team is just different. It's old, it's deep, it's experienced and it's extremely connected.
Sometimes teams are just flat out good, and this Mizzou squad qualifies.
Look for it to keep rolling as it completes the sweep of Arkansas.
