The Dayton Flyers take on the Loyola Chicago Ramblers in Chicago, IL. Tip-off is set for 7 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
Dayton is favored by 1.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -130. The total is set at 140.5 points.
Here’s my Dayton vs. Loyola Chicago predictions and college basketball picks for February 21, 2025.
Dayton vs Loyola Chicago Prediction
My Pick: Dayton -1.5 or Better
My Dayton vs Loyola Chicago best bet is on the Flyers spread, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your college basketball bets, find the best lines using our live NCAAB odds page.
Dayton vs. Loyola Chicago Odds, Lines, Pick
| Dayton Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2 -110 | 141 -110o / -110u | -130 |
| Loyola Chicago Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2 -110 | 141 -110o / -110u | +110 |
- Dayton vs Loyola Chicago spread: Dayton -2
- Dayton vs Loyola Chicago over/under: 141 points
- Dayton vs Loyola Chicago moneyline: Dayton -130, Loyola Chicago +110
- Dayton vs Loyola Chicago best bet: Dayton -1.5 or Better
My Dayton vs Loyola Chicago College Basketball Betting Preview
Surprisingly, these two teams are tied for third place in the A-10 standings at 8-5, as Dayton has had a tough year.
That said, the Flyers have won seven of nine after losing three of their first four conference games. That streak started with a tough 83-81 overtime win against the Ramblers at home in mid-January.
The Ramblers were obscenely efficient in that game, shooting 62% from inside the arc (18-for-29) and 41% from beyond (12-for-29).
That makes sense on paper, given the Ramblers’ secondary motion-based offense (plenty of dribble handoff, off-ball screening and cutting sets) matches up well with Dayton’s aggressive on-ball pressure defense.
But Loyola Chicago's pretty offense is paired with a turnover problem. It ranks sub-230th nationally in offensive turnover rate (18%, per KenPom). That bodes poorly against Dayton’s pressure, as the Flyers lead the A-10 in defensive turnover rate (21%, per KenPom).
Unsurprisingly, Dayton forced 19 turnovers in the first head-to-head matchup en route to 19 points off those turnovers. It was the biggest reason the Flyers won the game, and I believe that’s repeatable in the rematch.
While Loyola Chicago has seemingly fixed that turnover issue — with just 25 across the past three games — the results came against Richmond, Saint Louis and Davidson, three passive defensive schemes that don’t force turnovers.
The Ramblers could be in for a rude awakening after 120 minutes of dribbling without pressure.
Furthermore, it’s hard to imagine the Ramblers shooting over 40% from 3 on high volume again. They’re a solid spacing-and-shooting squad, but not that good, and they shot 7-for-14 (50%) on guarded catch-and-shoot jumpers.
On the other end of the court, Dayton will keep running its dangerous spread pick-and-roll attack spearheaded by Malachi Smith and his 41% assist rate (seventh nationally among qualified players, per KenPom).
The Flyers spend most of their time attacking the rim but are still an elite spacing and shooting squad, especially with surprisingly versatile 7-foot-1 freshman Amael L'Etang manning the five spot.
Loyola Chicago runs a deep drop-coverage defense that effectively denies rim-and-3 opportunities.
But the Ramblers also invite pick-and-roll creation from opposing ball-handlers, and they haven’t been overly effective at stopping those sets on a per-possession basis (.83 PPP allowed, 27th percentile, per Synergy).
As expected, Dayton scored 33 points on 31 ball screens in the first head-to-head matchup, suitable for a rock-solid 1.07 PPP (per Synergy).
Ultimately, I believe Dayton can continue forcing turnovers on defense and generating pick-and-roll points on offense in the rematch.
Meanwhile, I’m uncertain that Loyola Chicago’s stupid hot shooting night is repeatable.
I also don’t mind backing the Flyers on the road, given they rank in the top 50 nationally in Haslametrics’ away-from-home metric.
Meanwhile, the Ramblers are a shocking 5-10 ATS at home this season.
