We have finally reached the first college basketball Saturday that isn't overshadowed by the gridiron. Not only do we have a massive slate without much football interference, but there are also multiple marquee affairs and rivalry matchups.
But as usual, we are looking for betting value to beef up our card.
So, without further ado, here are our staff's college basketball best bets, including four picks and predictions for Saturday, December 14.
Saturday College Basketball Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college basketball betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 12 p.m. | |
  | 1 p.m. | |
  | 5:30 p.m. | |
  | 8:00 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Texas A&M vs. Purdue
By Greg Waddell
Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis will play host to an entertaining game between Texas A&M and Purdue on Saturday.
The exciting end of the floor to watch will be Purdue's elite offense against the Texas A&M defense. Both units rank inside the top 10 in adjusted efficiency on that end of the floor, and it will truly be strength-on-strength.
A&M is a physical team with length and athleticism at all positions. The Aggies force turnovers on 21% of their opponents' offensive possessions, which ranks 69th nationally.
Turnovers have been a problem from time to time for Purdue, which still relies heavily on Braden Smith to create everything for his arsenal of catch-and-shoot threats. Smith is sensational, but as Penn State demonstrated a week ago in a blowout win over Purdue, if you can frustrate the Boilermakers' star, they don't have many backup options.
Across from Smith will be Texas A&M star Wade Taylor IV, who has taken a step forward in nearly every area of the game from last season. Taylor has upped his 3-point percentage, his 2-point percentage, his free throw percentage and his assist rate, all while turning the ball over less than he did a season ago.
Taylor has scored in double figures in every game this season for the Aggies, and he has six straight games with four or more assists.
While the point guard matchup will bring the fireworks, it may be more likely that this game is decided by each team's supporting cast.
Texas A&M is a deep team, ranking 58th nationally in bench minutes. Meanwhile, Purdue has trimmed its rotation sizably in the last few games.
Texas A&M is relentless on the offensive glass. The Aggies finished last season ranked first in the country in generating second chances on the boards, and they remain first in the country this season, as well.
Purdue is vulnerable in the paint for the first time in practically a decade. The Boilermakers start Trey Kaufman-Renn at center, a 6-foot-9 power forward who has been sensational offensively but is susceptible to giving up offensive rebounds and is not a rim protector at all (only one block this season).
The Aggies will send an endless platoon of athletes to crash their shot attempts, and Purdue's small-ball look may be having nightmares before this one is over.
Back the Aggies to cover and win the game. (Any plus-money price is great value, and I would bet it up to -110.)
Pick: Texas A&M +2.5
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Ohio State vs. Auburn
By Alex Hinton
Considering the offenses in this game, there may be some value on the total. Auburn is averaging 87 points per game this season, and it has scored 80 or points in six of its nine games.
As a result, the over has hit in six of those games.
Ohio State is averaging 82 points per game this season. While the over is 4-5 in Ohio State games this season, it has hit in three of the Buckeyes' last five games.
Combined, these teams put up 169 points per game, and KenPom projects this total at 155 points. However, 152 will cash this over.
Pick: Over 151.5 (Play to 154.5)
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Tennessee at Illinois
By Greg Waddell
Two very good, very orange basketball teams meet in Champaign, Illinois, on Saturday as the baby-faced Illini take on a veteran Tennessee squad.
The Volunteers have rightfully claimed their spot atop the throne of college basketball as the nation's top-ranked team, but the Illini will have a chance to de-throne Rick Barnes' Vols with a statement win.
Two of the best point guards in the sport will face off here, as Tennessee's Zakai Zeigler has rightfully earned the respect as one of the best two-way guards in the country. Zeigler is a defensive pest and an elite playmaker, ranking 12th in the country in assist rate while averaging eight dimes per game.
Illinois' freshman sensation Kasparas Jakucionis isn't far behind. The Lithuanian superstar and sure-fire lottery pick has gotten everyone's attention in the past two weeks, nearly posting a triple-double against Northwestern with 20 points, 10 rebounds and seven assists.
Stylistically Jakucionis and Zeigler could not be more different. Zeigler is a tenacious, undersized defensive monster who utilizes his quickness to get anywhere he wants on the floor. Jakucionis is big for his position and is a playmaking savant who picks apart defenses with his vision and step-back shooting ability.
Zeigler is a big part of Tennessee's second-ranked defense (per KenPom), but he surely isn't the Vols' only defensive sensation. Jahmai Mashack may be the best perimeter defender in college basketball, and he has the size and strength to frustrate Jakucionis.
On the flip side, Illinois often switches defensively, and that can cause problems against elite isolation scorers. Against Northwestern, the Wildcats hunted both Jakucionis and Ben Humrichous, and Nick Martinelli repeatedly made them pay with Brad Underwood's trademark "Booty Ball."
With all due respect, if Martinelli feasted against Illinois' switches, Tennessee's Chaz Lanier should be salivating. The Vols' latest transfer superstar has been one of the best scorers in the country, and he will be a matchup nightmare for Underwood's team in this one.
Speaking of Underwood, he has this Illinois program rolling, but a closer look suggests that his teams have struggled in their toughest tests. Going back to the start of last season, Illinois is just 1-6 outright against top-15 opponents (per KenPom), with all six losses coming by five or more points.
Illinois is a good team, but Tennessee is a great one. The Vols have more answers defensively for Illinois' stars than the Illini have for Lanier.
Take Tennessee.
Pick: Tennessee ML -110 (Play to -5)
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Oklahoma State vs. Oklahoma
We have to sell Oklahoma.
The Sooners are 9-0, but they have played a laughably easy schedule (345th-hardest nationally) and have needed some luck to get there, shooting 37% from 3 while opponents have shot 28%.
During their three-game Battle 4 Atlantis championship run, the Sooners shot 30-for-74 (41%) from deep while Providence, Arizona and Louisville combined to shoot 24-for-84 (28%) from beyond the arc.
The regression monster is hiding out somewhere near Norman.
Sooners point guard Jeremiah Fears is the real deal, and the team is generating great shots.
But the Sooners' defense is a problem, as they are getting eaten alive inside the arc (53% shooting allowed, 240th nationally), at the rim (1.16 PPP allowed, 282nd nationally), against post-up sets (.94 PPP allowed, 269th nationally) and on the glass (31% offensive rebounding rate allowed, 241st nationally).
They are also allowing a high volume of 3s (43% 3-point rate allowed, 277th nationally), so their defensive metrics could fall off a cliff once a few more drop.
Therefore, it seems like the perfect time to catch two possessions with their in-state rival.
Oklahoma State might not exploit Oklahoma’s overvalued 3-point defense — and its half-court offense is pretty pathetic — but the Pokes live at the rim (22 at-the-rim field goal attempts per game, 86th percentile) and play volleyball with the offensive glass (34% offensive rebounding rate, 86th nationally), which bodes well in this matchup.
This could be a big game for the Abou Ousmane-Marchelus Avery frontcourt duo, as it’s averaging over 12 paint points and four second-chance points per game.
Additionally, I think the Pokes have a slight two-way turnover advantage.
Both teams are disruptive on the defensive end. However, Oklahoma State has a slightly lower offensive turnover rate and is an excellent press offense (1.3 PPP, 95th percentile), which will be huge against Porter Moser's press-happy defensive scheme.
Oklahoma State head coach Steve Lutz runs an aggressive ball-screen coverage defense that thrives on havoc, attempting to generate easy transition buckets from turnovers. Fears is uber-talented, but he’s also turnover-prone (3.7 per game at a 23% rate), which could sink the Sooners on Saturday.
If Oklahoma State can win the rebounding and turnover battles, the Pokes will undoubtedly win the shot volume battle, which will go a long way in keeping this rivalry game close for 40 minutes.
Of course, Oklahoma State’s aggressive ball-screen coverage will leave it vulnerable against Oklahoma’s floor spacing and weak-side shooting, and we could get burnt if the Sooners shoot 40% from deep again.
But I’ll take my chances against an overvalued squad due for a tough loss, especially when Bart Torvik and our Action PRO Model project this spread within two points.
Pick: Oklahoma State +5.5 (Play to +4)
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