Christmas means one thing in the college basketball world: the Diamond Head Classic. We have four games out on the islands on Monday as an appetizer and four matchups as the main course on Christmas Day.
But before we get to Wednesday, there is value to be had in the sport on Monday — and that value doesn't just come in Hawaii.
So, here is my NCAAB best bets and three picks and predictions for Monday, December 23.
NCAAB Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college basketball betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 8 p.m. | |
  | 10 p.m. | |
  | 10:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Oregon State vs. Oakland
The only remaining undefeated team in the country against the spread resides in Corvallis, Oregon.
Well, for this week, the Oregon State Beavers reside in Honolulu, Hawaii, but you get the idea.
The Beavers have been a juggernaut, vaulting up analytical rankings on both ends of the court by repeatedly outperforming expectations. Despite heavy roster turnover, Wayne Tinkle has cultivated a team with near-perfect role allocation; the pieces appear to fit together like a puzzle.
Oakland can be a tricky matchup with short prep time because of Greg Kampe’s funky zone. Oregon State’s team-wide ability to share the ball (38th nationally in assist rate) and shooting at four positions give the Beavers a strong zone-busting group, though.
They have not seen much zone this season, per Synergy, and they have been inefficient against those looks, but that very small sample is clouded by absurdly poor 3-point shooting (16.1%).
From a spot sense, Oakland needed a wild buzzer-beating putback to escape the first round of this Diamond Head Classic. Oregon State’s win was more comfortable, leading Charleston by double-digits for most of the final 35 minutes.
That’s a slight edge for the Beavers here on a quick 24-hour turnaround.
Pick: Oregon State -9.5 (Play to -10)
Seattle vs. Washington
A local big brother/little brother rivalry gives Christmas week some spice. This is the 17th straight year of this Seattle series, with big brother Washington having won all 16 previous matchups.
However, I’m looking at the total, as both teams should struggle to score against one another.
The Huskies have been shaky in the first year of the Danny Sprinkle era, however.
The offense has been particularly problematic, with the Huskies sorely lacking the shooting ability to space the floor. They rank 332nd in the country in 3-point attempt rate, per KenPom, which has allowed opponents to send plenty of extra defenders at burly forward Great Osobor inside.
Seattle will need to employ that strategy. The Redhawks’ interior defense has been a problem this season without Kobe Williamson, an expected starter in the paint who has yet to play this season. That means Washington’s offense will lean heavily on its outside shooters, which has not been a profitable approach for most of the season.
On the other end, Seattle could struggle mightily to score. The Redhawks rank 331st in 2-point percentage offense, and Washington’s power conference size will surely not help the cause. In Seattle’s only other power conference tilt, it managed just 48 points at Duke.
Seattle’s best offense has come from the charity stripe, ranking 14th nationally in free throw rate (KenPom). Washington is in the upper half of the country in avoiding fouling, and against a smaller mid-major foe, that should be an edge.
Pick: Under 144.5 (Play to 141)
Nebraska vs. Hawaii
One more from the Diamond Head Classic to finish out Monday’s trio. Nebraska’s defense was on display yesterday, holding Murray State to a paltry 14 points in the first half and 0.74 points per possession for the entire game.
The most important aspect of Nebraska’s defense is its ability to completely take away the rim as an option. Murray State managed just one 2-point field goal in the first half yesterday, and that has been a common theme in Husker games this season.
Nebraska forced normally 3-point-averse Indiana into taking 35 triples vs. just 30 2s, and arch-rival Creighton launched 42 tries from deep compared to just 10 (!) 2-point attempts.
That’s a problem for Hawaii, a team that really wants to score inside and at the rim. The Rainbow Warriors are 325th nationally in percentage of points scored via the 3-ball, per KenPom. Against Nebraska’s fortified interior, Hawaii has to hit shots, but that has been a weakness throughout this season.
Of course, Hawaii’s own defensive blueprint could give Nebraska problems, as well. Coach Eran Ganot is a Randy Bennett disciple, which means a disciplined man-to-man that never helps off shooters and forces teams to score one-on-one. Only Brice Williams is really capable of doing so with any modicum of consistency.
A final key point: Nebraska forward Berke Buyuktuncel left last night’s game with an injury. He has been a key scorer and facilitator for the Huskers.
His absence could mean more minutes for Juwan Gary, a defensive ace that struggles to score.
Pick: Under 143.5 (Play to 141)
