It’s Super Tuesday in College Basketball, and our staff of experts has three picks for the slate, headlined by Duke vs. Louisville and Texas Tech vs. Houston.
Read on for our College Basketball Best Bets and NCAAB Picks below.
College Basketball Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college basketball betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7 p.m. | |
  | 9 p.m. | |
  | 11 p.m. | |
 | 7 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Duke vs. Louisville Pick
I have to admit, I think I’ve reached a large enough sample size on my projections to declare that they provide an actionable edge against the college basketball betting market.
| Bet Type | W-L Record | Hit Rate | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sides | 141-124 | 53.2% | +4.6 Units |
| Totals | 276-237 | 53.8% | +15.3 Units |
| All | 417-361 | 53.6% | +19.9 Units |
The projections have been hitting at a consistent 54%-55% rate over the past six weeks.
And I project over 165 points for this ACC headliner.
Duke’s defense has been a disaster in ACC play, allowing two sub-100 offenses (Florida State and Georgia Tech) to score well over one PPP.
While Louisville will be without stud point guard Mikel Brown Jr. (if he were healthy, I’d project value on the Cardinals), I believe the Cardinals have enough offensive creation between Ryan Conwell, Isaac McKNeely, Adrian Wooley, and J’Vonne Hadley to attack Duke’s lackluster defense.
Specifically, watch out for Louisville to hunt Cam Boozer in isolation-and-kick matchups, as he’s been abysmal on that end of the court this season. Jon Scheyer has had to call more zone to hide Boozer, but that won’t work against the Cardinals, who boast an elite zone offense (1.33 PPP, 97th percentile).
But on the other end, Boozer is essentially unguardable, and the Cardinals don’t have a great defensive matchup for him.
Scheyer has also picked up the pace a bit this season, running far more in transition (nearly 17 times per game, compared to 12 last year) with a far-quicker average possession length (15 seconds, compared to 17 last year). The Cardinals have no issue running with them (18 transition possessions per game, 15-second average possession length).
I expect a fast-paced, high-efficiency ballgame between two elite offenses with defensive liabilities, and my numbers agree.
Check out all of McGrath's CBB Projections for Tuesday here:
Pick: Over 162 or Better
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Texas Tech vs. Houston Pick
By Sean Paul
I'm going to take Texas Tech with the points.
Houston had to scrap and claw to beat Middle Tennessee by nine, and Cincinnati did everything it could to lose by seven and blow the cover.
The Cougars are fine with slowing the game down, like usual. They rank 353rd nationally in adjusted tempo, so I expect them to be content with a win in the 60s or low 70s.
The Red Raiders' duo of Christian Anderson and JT Toppin is good enough to score on any defense. They'll need the supporting cast to shoot well, but Donovan Atwell is shooting over 40% from deep, and freshman Jaylen Petty is emerging.
I feel good about the Red Raiders hitting enough shots and grabbing enough rebounds to keep the game within two possessions.
Pick: Texas Tech +6 or Better
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San Diego State vs. Nevada Pick
This game activated one of our PRO betting systems, powered by Evan Abrams.
The “Good Team, Conf, Sm Fav, Both Tms Bad ATS” system identifies undervalued favorites in NCAAB who win consistently but have struggled against the spread, facing opponents with similar ATS struggles.
In conference play, where matchups are familiar, and motivation runs high, the better overall team often prevails despite market skepticism caused by prior spread losses.
When a strong team sits as a slight favorite, it suggests the line has tightened due to mutual ATS underperformance rather than competitive balance.
This system capitalizes on that overcorrection, backing reliable programs that win outright at a steady rate when the market perception has dipped too far, turning short favorites into profitable plays.
Pick: Nevada -1.5 or Better
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Duck's Full Action App Card
Need more picks for Tuesday's action? It's always wise to see what our guy Duck is betting on!
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