Five ranked teams are in action tonight — including three top-10 squads — but the value lies elsewhere on the college basketball odds board.
In fact, I have three spots I'm targeting for Wednesday, featuring a late-night battle in the SEC.
Read below for college basketball best bets, including three NCAAB expert picks, predictions and odds for Wednesday, January 21.
College Basketball Best Bets
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7 p.m. | |
  | 7 p.m. | |
  | 9 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Murray State vs. Drake
In a league full of parity, Murray State has separated itself as we approach the midway point of the conference season. The Racers are 8-0 and hold a 1.5-game lead atop the Missouri Valley standings, riding a fantastic offense with a cadre of weapons to that strong start.
The schedule stiffens, though, with four of the next six games on the road – beginning with a two-game swing through Iowa this week/weekend.
The Racers won the first meeting between these two at home, living at the free-throw line and executing well offensively (only five turnovers).
To Drake’s credit, the Bulldogs have had some standout performances. Beating Georgia Tech by 10 on a neutral court has aged well, and the offense exploded for 108 points against Western Illinois three days later.
The Bulldogs have embraced a “bomb away from 3” identity, leading the Missouri Valley in 3-point attempt rate (48.4% of field goal attempts, per KenPom).
This matchup limits that specific element of variance, though. Murray State leads the entire country in point differential from beyond the arc, firing away while easily leading the country in defensive 3-point attempt rate.
The Racers simply don't help off shooters, and Drake took just 16 triples in the first meeting, the Bulldogs’ lowest volume of the season.
This is a challenging spot for Murray State, but the Racers’ depth insulates them from poor performances offensively.
Notably, this game has seen a tug of war in the market, back and forth between -4.5 and -5.5. I'll still lay the -5.5, but I'll keep an eye peeled for it to drop back down.
Pick: Murray State -5.5
Tulane vs. FAU
From backing one league leader to fading another.
FAU (5-1 in league play) is the current king of the American, holding a half-game lead over Memphis (4-1). The Owls have rattled off four victories in a row, including an Owl-on-Owl battle on Sunday at Temple.
However, this is an extremely tricky matchup for FAU. The Owls’ offense is one of the most pick-and-roll reliant systems in the country, ranking in the 99th percentile in frequency of “Pick-and-Roll plus Passes,” per Synergy.
That simply doesn't work against Tulane and Ron Hunter’s funky matchup zone, which forces foes into a more specific approach.
That doesn't bode well for FAU, which ranks in just the 29th percentile in points per possession against zones this season (Synergy). The Owls only have a few shooters, and their ball movement isn't a strength. They prefer to attack gaps off the bounce.
The concern for the Green Wave is around the rim, where they struggle badly on the glass (a symptom of the zone). FAU has size in the paint via Belgian center Xander Pintelon and French forward Maxim Logue, but FAU should find it difficult to feed them against this specific scheme.
Tulane swept both matchups last season, providing proof of concept that the Green Wave’s style can frustrate FAU.
Pick: Tulane +10.5 (Play to +8)
Mississippi State vs. Texas A&M
Texas A&M’s Bucky McMillan deserves an immense amount of credit. Hired somewhat late in the cycle this past offseason, McMillan has still managed to push his Aggies squarely into the NCAA Tournament at-large picture.
They haven't lost in regulation since November 14, and they’ve picked up strong road wins at Auburn and Texas, in addition to narrowly falling in double overtime at Tennessee.
This impressive run of high-quality play isn't what was expected. The Aggies were supposed to be an erratic bunch, capable of high highs and low lows. We saw those low lows in November, as Texas A&M lost by 24 at Oklahoma State and 12 to UCF at home.
This wager is something of a “sell high” move, as I think Texas A&M has become somewhat overvalued (38th in KenPom, 32nd in Bart Torvik).
Mississippi State is as much of a buy-low candidate as any team in the SEC right now. The Bulldogs have lost three straight games, including a home loss to Egg Bowl rival Ole Miss on Saturday.
Chris Jans’ team has shown the inconsistency expected of Texas A&M, so I'm banking on the Bulldogs putting forth a strong effort in this underdog spot.
The key matchup aspect in this one is Mississippi State’s ability to take care of the ball. The Bulldogs are far from perfect, but with Josh Hubbard at the helm, they avoid miscues offensively.
That undermines Texas A&M’s biggest defensive strength (No. 1 in the SEC in forced turnover rate). That should allow Mississippi State to exert some force in the paint against the SEC’s worst defensive rebounding unit.
I expect a bounce back performance from Hubbard, who struggled this past weekend. That, plus Mississippi State’s interior strength, gives the Bulldogs a chance to win outright.
Pick: Mississippi State +8.5 (Play to +7)
