The Baylor Bears take on the BYU Cougars in Provo, UT. Tip-off is set for 9 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
BYU is favored by 3.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -185. The total is set at 142.5 points.
Here are my Baylor vs. BYU predictions and college basketball picks for January 28, 2025.
Baylor vs BYU Prediction, Picks
My Pick: BYU -3.5 (Play to -5)
My Baylor vs BYU best bet is on the Cougars spread, with the best odds currently available at BetMGM. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Baylor vs BYU Odds, Spread, Line
| Baylor Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -115 | 143.5 -105o / -115u | +150 |
| BYU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -105 | 143.5 -105o / -115u | -185 |
- Baylor vs BYU spread: BYU -4, Baylor +4
- Baylor vs BYU over/under: 143.5
- Baylor vs BYU moneyline: BYU ML -185, Baylor ML +150
Spread
The spot and matchup are strong for BYU. I'm going to lay the points with the Cougars.
Moneyline
For those looking to avoid getting bitten by the spread, tossing BYU into a moneyline parlay could work. Marquette and Texas A&M are two options that make the moneyline parlay right around even money.
Over/Under
I don't have a strong take either way on the total. Pace and efficiency are in conflict here; I look to have both on my side to bet a total.
My Pick: BYU -3.5 (Play to -5)
Baylor vs BYU NCAAB Preview
Baylor Bears Betting Preview: Playing at Elevation
Baylor got its first mountain road trip off to an excellent start at Utah on Saturday. An early 22-3 run seized control of the game from the host Utes, and Baylor led by double-digits for nearly the entire second half en route to a 76-61 win.
The Bears showed no ill effects from playing an extremely thin rotation at altitude. With guards Langston Love and Jeremy Roach out because of injury, the Bears relied heavily on a six-man rotation. Jason Asemota’s nine foul-prone minutes didn't contribute much.
Perhaps the most notable storyline from that contest was the continued emergence of freshman VJ Edgecombe. Over his last two games, Edgecombe is averaging 25.5 points on 16-of-31 shooting from the field.
Hailed as a surefire lottery pick when he arrived, the Bahamian wing was up and down for most of the season’s first two months. In January, though, he's been a major two-way force, allowing the rest of the Bears to operate with less defensive attention.
An imposing frontline of Norchad Omier and Josh Ojianwuna has taken advantage. The two have different games – Omier is looking to score way more frequently – but they're both extremely active on the glass and elite finishers around the bucket. Omier’s constant activity level is difficult for opposing bigs to match.
Like any Baylor team, the Bears have a deadly backcourt, as well. Even without Roach and Love, foes have a tall task stopping Edgecombe, fellow freshman Robert Wright III and wing sniper Jayden Nunn.
Wright has been a revelation as a floor general for a rookie, though his shot has abandoned him in league play.
That trio blends diverse skill sets, making it difficult for opponents to focus on any specific defensive strategy.
Notably, Baylor has seen an uptick in its defensive efficiency in league play. The Bears are currently fourth in points per possession allowed in conference games, an unexpected result after they struggled to get stops in the non-conference part of the schedule.
A return to prominence of Scott Drew’s amoeba zone has helped control the pace; per Synergy, Baylor is zoning on 22.5% of possessions, the 25th-highest rate nationally.
BYU Cougars Betting Preview: Surging in Provo
After a tepid 1-3 start to Big 12 play, the BYU Cougars are surging. They've won three of their last four games, with the only loss coming in overtime on the road at Holy War rival Utah. The three victories have come by a combined 60 points, including an 80-52 thrashing of Cincinnati on Saturday night.
Improvement from the Cougars' defense has led the way. In those four games, BYU surrendered the following points per possession tallies: 1.00, 0.99, 1.02, 0.87. Those are strong marks against high-level competition, all below the Big 12 in-conference average of 1.04 PPP, per KenPom.
That surge has coincided with the insertion of defensive whiz Mawot Mag into the starting lineup. A physical, veteran presence, Mag has been a clear upgrade on that end over thin freshman shooter Kanon Catchings.
For a team whose overall strength is scoring, seeing the Cougars get stingier on defense is an extremely promising sign.
And speaking of the offense, it'll be just fine with Catchings fading into a bench role if potential lottery pick Egor Demin continues to find his form.
The Russian point forward has struggled somewhat since his return from a mid-December injury, but his performance against Cincinnati – 15 points, five rebounds, seven assists – finally showcased the star prospect he appeared to be back in November.
With Demin dominating as a facilitator – he now leads the Big 12 in assist rate – it opens up the court for the rest of the Cougars’ considerable arsenal of weapons. Richie Saunders and Trevin Knell are lethal perimeter marksmen, and Saunders’ blossoming ability to attack off the bounce makes him an even tougher cover.
BYU is no finesse team, though. The Cougars are one of the best two-way rebounding teams in the country, in large part thanks to the physically dominant center platoon of Fousseyni Traore and Keba Keita.
The Malian Bash Brothers are both elite on the boards, and with Demin’s help, they allow BYU to rank 35th nationally in offensive rebound rate and fourth in defensive rebound rate (KenPom).
Baylor vs. BYU Pick, Best Bet
A major question for any Baylor opponent is whether you can handle the Bears’ zone curveball. That's changed the flow of several Baylor games, frustrating the opponent into long, ugly possessions.
BYU hasn't seen much zone this season – just 52 total possessions, per Synergy. The numbers look great (1.14 points per possession) until you realize that 39 of the 52 possessions were against Central Arkansas (312th nationally in KenPom’s defensive rankings) and Mississippi Valley State (364th).
Of course, teams don't zone BYU for a reason. The Cougars' ball movement, perimeter shooting and offensive rebounding are all clearly weapons against zone looks. This team is well-equipped to handle such a wrinkle.
Regardless of what defense Baylor plays, though, BYU should eat on the glass. Traore and Keita are a handful for any team, let alone one that ranks 223rd nationally in defensive rebound rate.
And BYU’s own resolute work on the defensive glass will limit Baylor’s second-shot opportunities. After the Bears got 15 offensive rebounds at Utah (44.1% of their misses), losing that route to offense could be crippling.
The spot is also heavily in BYU’s favor. Baylor’s thin rotation dealing with a second straight game at altitude could surface as an issue, even though the Bears didn't have to do any traveling after Saturday.
However, their legs could feel some effects in the second half. Nunn, Edgecombe and Wright all played 35+ minutes at Utah and may have to do the same again on Tuesday.
Adding that all together pushes me to make a BYU bet here. The spot and matchup are strong, and even though there’s a slight spot tax in this line, I would lay up to -5 on the Cougars.
