Dayton vs. G Washington Odds & Betting Predictions - February 28, 2026

#SHARP #RLM

Dayton has been playing some good ball as of late, but this is a brutal spot. Dayton is coming off the Super Bowl game of their season against Saint Louis. This is their arch rival, and they were embarrassed in the first meeting. That was a game this team had circled for weeks. We even bet on Dayton in that game, and they won outright in convincing fashion against a very good Saint Louis team. However, this is a brutal spot to face George Washington after coming off such an emotional high. Not to mention, despite their records, I have George Washington as the better team, and we’re getting them at home at a reasonable price. I have George Washington ranked as the 64th best team in the country with a 9.1 rating. This is a higher ranking than teams like Butler, Ole Miss, Cal, and Syracuse. Don’t get it twisted by just looking at their record, this George Washington team is legit. Meanwhile, I have Dayton rated 21 spots lower at 85th. While this is a respectable ranking, it’s clear which team is better. We also have to put an asterisk by the last month of George Washington’s games, as their best player, Rafael Castro, has been out with an injury. However, the potential future NBA player is back in the lineup and is ready to go for tonight. He will easily be the best player on the floor and adds so much to both sides of the ball. In his absence, George Washington might have actually found something with Luke Hunger, who has stepped up big time since Castro went out. If these two can play together, there really isn’t a drop off at the forward position. I also love seeing teams adjust when their star player goes down. George Washington obviously struggled at first, but seeing guys like Hunger and Garrett Johnson step up is big for the future of this team. It’s important to note that Dayton did win the first meeting between these two teams, but the Flyers are not the same team away from home. Dayton ranks 361st in Hasla Metrics away from home metric, which is the 6th worst mark in the entire country. This is an entirely different team at home than when they are on the road. That first meeting also seemed like an anomaly as Dayton shot 30 free throws, and George Washington just couldn’t hold onto the ball. While some of the credit goes to Dayton’s pressure, I expect a much cleaner game at home from the Revs. Dayton lives at the free throw line for much of their offense, so it’s important for George Washington to avoid foul trouble early. Besides getting to the free throw line, Dayton also loves dribble jumpers, but the George Washington defense is in the 95th percentile in defending them. The George Washington offense is elite for the group of five level. They rank 48th in offensive efficiency and 2nd in the A-10. They are 34th in effective field goal percentage and have been elite on the offensive boards. A good offensive team with strong offensive rebounding is never a good sign for the other team. You can’t let good offenses get multiple looks, and that’s a concern for Dayton, as they are just 11th in the A-10 in defensive rebounding. Dayton also struggles defending the three, which is another area the Revs can exploit. George Washington is the 62nd most efficient shooting team in the country, facing a 301st ranked Dayton three point defense. Our model has George Washington winning 77.42 to 70.68 for a fair spread of 7.53. This is a really tough letdown spot for Dayton off their biggest win of the season. Give me the Revs to cover at home.

Bust out the Cuban cigars, Castro is back.