The Phoenix Suns (15-15) and Golden State Warriors (15-15) will square off in the NBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 8:30 p.m. ET from the Chase Center in San Francisco. The game will broadcast live on NBA TV.
The Warriors are 6.5-point favorites over the Suns on the spread, with the over/under set at 219.5 total points. Golden State is a -245 favorite to win outright, while Phoenix is +200 to pull off the upset.
Let's get to my Suns vs. Warriors predictions and NBA picks for Saturday night.
Suns vs. Warriors Prediction, Picks
Spread
The injury report is a bit cloudy, with both teams playing on back-to-back nights. As things currently stand, my model makes Phoenix a 5-point underdog in this spot, but there's not enough of an edge to warrant a play at the current number of +6.
Moneyline
My model projects a Suns' moneyline closer to +170, so we are getting some value at +185. However, the uncertainty around the injury report is enough to keep me off the side entirely.
Over/Under
My biggest edge in this game is the total, which I project at 216 points. However, you can still find the under at 219.5 at most shops.
My Pick: Under 219.5 (-110)
Suns vs. Warriors Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Suns Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -110 | 219.5 -110 / -110 | +200 |
| Warriors Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -110 | 219.5 -110 / -110 | -245 |
- Suns vs. Warriors spread: Warriors -6.5
- Suns vs. Warriors over/under: 219.5 points
- Suns vs. Warriors moneyline: Suns +200, Warriors -245
- Suns vs. Warriors best bet: Under 219.5 (-110)
Phoenix Suns vs. Golden State Warriors Preview
If you are what your record says you are, then the Suns and Warriors are simply two average teams with .500 records. Both are coming off losses on Friday night, as Devin Booker (groin) missed his fourth straight game for Phoenix, while Golden State's Stephen Curry (injury management) and Draymond Green (back) also didn't play.
The Suns have already announced that Booker will miss Saturday's game, but Golden State's injury report remains uncertain. Curry could return to the lineup, and Green's status remains unclear.
One thing that's clear is both teams have struggled to find consistency with players in and out of the lineup. The Suns' superstar trio of Booker, Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal have already missed 24 games, while Curry and Green are also into double-digits with 10.
It's also worth noting that these are two of the oldest teams in the league, with Phoenix tied for first with an average age of 27.9 years and Golden State tied for second at 27.7.
The Suns are much more of a half-court team, preferring to play at a slower pace. They rank 23rd in possessions, with 98.3 per game. According to NBA.com, they have the second-highest rate of shot attempts (11.7%) when the shot clock is winding down to four or fewer seconds.
While Durant can often be somewhat of a cheat code given his efficiency, this tendency to wind the clock down bodes well for a team with Golden State's defensive quality. The Warriors have the eighth-best defensive rating, allowing 109.9 points per 100 possessions.
Lastly, both teams could lack some sharpness in this back-to-back spot. Per our Action Labs database, the under is 3-1 this season when it involves two teams on short rest with an opening total of 220 or fewer points.
Suns vs. Warriors Best Bets, Predictions
After making my case for the under, we can add more value to our wager by targeting a correlated player prop in a same game parlay.
One player who stands out is Golden State's Dennis Schroder. The Warriors' guard is still adjusting to his new team after being traded from the Nets.
While Schroder has started all five games with the Warriors, he's only averaging 26.4 minutes per contest compared to 33.6 when he was in Brooklyn. As a result, his production is also down in the Bay, averaging 8.2 points and 1.4 rebounds from 18.4 points and 3.0 rebounds with the Nets.
Since Curry was unavailable for Friday's game against the Clippers, one would have thought Schroder would take complete command of the offense to put in a big performance.
However, Schroder played just 24 minutes, finishing with seven points and one rebound. FanDuel lists his points + rebounds prop at 14.5, which he has yet to exceed since joining the Warriors.
Thus, it's difficult to see him having a more significant effect on Saturday's game if Curry returns to action.
In this spot, we're getting tremendous value on the under, and this, combined with our play on the total, helps boost our odds to +205.
Best Bet: Under 219.5
Warriors vs. Suns Parlay Picks
- Under 219.5 (-110)
- Dennis Schroder Under 14.5 Points + Rebounds
Parlay Payout: +205
