The San Antonio Spurs will visit the Minnesota Timberwolves for Game 3 of NBA Western Conference Semifinals tonight. Tipoff is set for 9:30 p.m. ET from the Target Center in Minneapolis, Minnesota. The game will stream live on Amazon Prime Video.
The Spurs are 5.5-point favorites over the Wolves following San Antonio's blowout win on Wednesday, but history doesn't favor San Antonio in this spot. Let's dive into my Spurs vs. Timberwolves Game 3 predictions.
Spurs vs Timberwolves Odds for Game 3
| Spurs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -108 | 216.5 -110o / -110u | -220 |
| Timberwolves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -112 | 216.5 -110o / -110u | +180 |
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San Antonio Spurs vs Minnesota Timberwolves NBA Playoffs Preview
Timberwolves Betting Preview: Now or Never
I’m already on the Timberwolves +2.5 games, +1.5 games, and to win the series. I planted my flag before the series began, and the result of Game 1 obviously helped my cause.
Historically, if the underdog is going to pull off the upset in a series, Game 3 is a must-win game.
The Wolves are playing their first home game of the series with a chance to take a 2-1 lead. They probably won't win both of these games in Minnesota to go up 3-1 — and if they lose Game 3, the odds of them losing Game 4 are much higher, meaning they could be sunk.
Spurs Betting Preview: History Says Tough Spot for SAS
I am unmoved by the Spurs getting their feel-good, get-even game in Game 2, and I still like the matchup for the Wolves.
The Spurs were always going to win Game 2. They desperately needed the win, and they got it. But, with fewer minutes played last game, Minnesota's had time to lick their wounds (like wolves!) and make adjustments to the counters the Spurs made.
So, why am I not targeting the Wolves' full-game lines? Simple: history says the favorite wins and covers in this spot.
Since 2003, coming off a 20-point blowout in Game 2, the home team is 6-24 SU, 8-21-1 ATS (28%) when they are an underdog in Game 3. Yikes. But, they are 11-18-1 (38%) SU and 13-9 ATS in the first half in those spots.
There’s a chance that the Spurs are simply better than the Wolves and the feel-good vibe from Game 1 was just a blip on the radar with Minnesota catching San Antonio off-guard after a pretty easy first round. If that’s the case, San Antonio will run away with Game 3 in the second half.
Spurs vs Timberwolves Prediction, Picks
Timberwolves 1H +2.5 / Timberwolves 1H ML
I’ll back Minnesota on the first-half spread and the first-half moneyline in Game 3 tonight, which is my conservative way to back the basketball side of the handicap, while still respecting the historical trends.
This is a good matchup for the Wolves, but the trends that say the Spurs should smash full-game.
Under 216.5
The Under is a shocking 30-14 in Wolves' home games this season, and it's a perfect 3-0 in the playoffs.
The Spurs’ defense found ways to limit what the Wolves want to do, and if Anthony Edwards hasn’t found his burst after what looked like a “I just played a basketball game for the first time in two weeks and I’m incredibly sore” type of Game 2, then San Antonio might just suffocate them again.
Meanwhile, the Wolves will likely find better counters for the Spurs' guards and turn the ball over less to allow fewer easier scores for San Antonio.
The Under has hit at a 55% rate in playoff games in tied series after Game 1, after Round 1 since 2003, which is a pretty large sample (348 games).
I think this will be another rock fight with the Wolves dragging San Antonio down to their level.
Jaden McDaniels Over 19.5 Points & Rebounds
Jaden McDaniels is the one Minnesota player who has shot better from the field at home vs. the road in these playoffs, and his rebounds have jumped as well.
He averaged 30.1 points and rebounds in the three home games against Denver in the previous round.
Naz Reid Over 1.5 Three-Pointers Made
The oddsmakers refuse to move Naz Reid's three-point prop line, so I’ll keep betting it.
He has made over 1.5 three-pointers in three of his last four games for the Wolves, and while he hasn’t been better shooting at home in these playoffs, he’s the kind of role player who should benefit in this spot.
Spurs vs Timberwolves Game 3 Best Bets
- Timberwolves 1H +2.5 (-115) / Timberwolves 1H ML (+136)
- Under 216.5 (-110)
- Jaden McDaniels Over 19.5 Points & Rebounds (-112)
- Naz Reid Over 1.5 Three-Pointers Made (-140)
