Spurs vs. Knicks NBA Finals: Longshots, Streaks and History Collide
When the NBA season tipped off on October 21, few could have imagined the Finals matchup that now sits in front of us.
The Spurs opened the year at 66-1 to win the championship, tied for the longest preseason odds by any team to reach the NBA Finals over the last 40 years. The Knicks weren't viewed much differently by the market. Entering the playoffs, New York was 22-1 to win it all, ranking fourth in the Eastern Conference and seventh overall in championship odds.
Yet here they are.
San Antonio arrives after winning a Game 7 on the road against the defending champion Thunder, while New York enters the Finals riding an 11-game winning streak and one of the most dominant stretches the league has ever seen.
The result is a matchup featuring two of the most surprising finalists in recent memory — and a series that has already produced some fascinating betting trends before Game 1 even tips.
Rest Disparity
One of the biggest advantages entering Game 1 belongs to New York. The Knicks will take the floor with nine full days of rest, while the Spurs will have just four days off after eliminating Oklahoma City in Game 7 of the Western Conference Finals.
Since 2002, teams playing in the second round or later with nine or more days of rest against opponents on four days or fewer are 10-3 straight up and 10-3 ATS. The situation has been even more impressive historically. Dating back to the NBA-ABA merger, those teams are 24-13 straight up and 26-11 ATS.
What makes New York's situation especially interesting is that these teams are usually at home. Since 2002, only three teams with this rest advantage have been on the road: the 2023 Sixers in Boston, the 2017 Cavaliers in Boston and the 2013 Spurs in Miami. All three won outright and covered the spread.
The NBA Finals sample tells a similar story. Since 1990, teams entering Game 1 of the Finals with this rest profile have gone 4-1 straight up and 3-2 ATS.
The only loss came from the 2001 Lakers, who were stunned by Philadelphia despite entering Game 1 as 12.5-point favorites.
The larger question is whether the rest edge translates into a championship. Since the merger, eight teams have entered Game 1 of the Finals with this specific advantage. Five ultimately won the title: the 2023 Nuggets, the 2001 Lakers, the 1996 Bulls, the 1982 Lakers and the 1978 Bullets. The three exceptions? The 2013 Spurs, 1998 Jazz and 1989 Lakers.
Interestingly, San Antonio finds itself on the opposite side of another rare Finals trend.
The Spurs become just the third team since the merger to win a Conference Finals Game 7 on the road and then be favored by at least three points in Game 1 of the NBA Finals.
The previous two teams were the 2018 Warriors and the 2002 Lakers. Both won Game 1 (didn't cover) and eventually won the championship.
Opening Tip
The underdog in Game 1 of the NBA Finals has struggled historically, even though the Pacers found a way to beat the Thunder as 10-pt dogs in Game 1 last season.
Game 1 NBA Finals dogs are 3-18 SU and 4-17 ATS since 2005 and 5-25 SU 9-21 ATS since 1996. The scary thing? Underdogs in Game 1 of the NBA Finals, who are on 6+ days rest since the end of the Conference Finals are 1-10 SU and ATS dating back to 2005-06. The only outright winner? Spurs over Heat as 5-pt dogs back in 2013.
With the Pacers winning and covering Game 1 vs. Thunder last year: underdogs haven't covered Game 1 of the NBA Finals in consecutive years since the 2001 Sixers and 2002 Nets did so and dogs haven't won Game 1 outright in consecutive years at all since the merger.
Route 66
The Spurs are on the verge of something unprecedented. On October 21st, the season opened and San Antonio was 66-1 to win the title, which is tied for the longest odds to make the NBA Finals in the last 40 years and would break the record for a title winner. Now, they are -210 favorites to win the championship.
No team with odds longer than 28-1 has ever won the championship. The 2015 Warriors entered at 28-1 and won the title as Finals favorites. The 2011 Mavericks opened at 20-1 and went on to capture the championship.
San Antonio now has a chance to surpass both.
Of the previous 11 teams to reach the Finals after opening the year at 20-1 or longer, only three entered the Finals as favorites: the 2015 Warriors, 2021 Suns and 2008 Lakers. Only the Golden State finished the job.
Hot as Orange
As remarkable as San Antonio's run has been, New York may be playing the best basketball of any Finals team in modern history.
The Knicks are not only on an 11-game win streak — they are in the middle of the most absurd 11-game stretch, win or lose, regular season or playoffs, in history.
They have outscored their opponents by 262 points over that span, which is 19 points better than any 11-game stretch ever recorded (2nd-best was Celtics in 2024 between February and March).
Among teams that outscored opponents by at least 200 points over an 11-game span:
• FG%: 53.3% (T-2nd of 99)
• Net Off. RTG diff: +24.8 (1st of 76 since ’77)
• FGM diff: +107 () (4th of 97 since ’70)
• Reb diff: +116 () (2nd of 97 since ’70)
(*) Best since Kareem Abdul-Jabbar's Bucks in 1973
The playoff-specific numbers are even more absurd.
There have only been four instances in NBA postseason history where a team produced an 11-game stretch with a point differential above +200.
All four belong to the 2026 Knicks.
The closest comparison remains the 2017 Warriors, who reached +190 during their championship run.
From the Back
Perhaps the most unlikely part of New York's story is where it started. The Knicks entered the playoffs at 22-1 to win the championship. Those odds ranked fourth in the East and seventh overall.
Since the merger, only six teams had previously reached the Finals after entering the playoffs at 20-1 or longer.
Every one of those teams lost in the Finals. The closest anyone came was last year's Pacers team, which pushed the series to seven games before losing. New York now attempts to become the first team in that group to finish the story.
Final Favorite
Oddsmakers clearly believe San Antonio is the better team. The Spurs opened around -210 to win the championship, making them the 33rd Finals favorite of -200 or higher since 1990.
That has historically been a powerful position. The previous 32 teams in that range went 29-3 in the Finals.
The only underdogs to pull off the upset were:
The market isn't nearly as lopsided as the first Spurs-Knicks Finals in 1999, when San Antonio closed around -900 and dispatched New York in five games. Still, history suggests the Knicks have a significant hurdle to overcome.
Post Upset
The Spurs arrive after eliminating Oklahoma City as +200 series underdogs. Now they enter the Finals as favorites. That sequence is almost unheard of.
Since 1990, only one team has been an underdog in the Conference Finals and then been favored in the NBA Finals.
That was the 2012 Thunder, who upset San Antonio as +175 dogs before closing -175 against Miami.
Oklahoma City lost the Finals in five games.
French Connection
Victor Wembanyama is -190 to win NBA Finals MVP entering the series. Going back over the last 24 seasons since 2003, we've seen 17 players enter an NBA Finals as an odds-on favorite to win Finals MVP — nine have won, seven have lost in terms of winning the award. Only two of those previous 16 won the series but failed to win Finals MVP:
2023-24 Jayson Tatum (-120) w/ Celtics. Jaylen Brown won at 7-1.
2014-15 Steph Curry (-160) w/ Warriors. Andre Iguodala won at 125-1.
At -190 odds, Wemby also joins a short list of biggest favorites to win the award entering a Finals:
• 024-25 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, -625 (Won)
• 2022-23 Nikola Jokic, -350 (Won)
• 2008-09 Kobe Bryant, -300 (Won)
• 2012-13 LeBron James, -250 (Won)
• 2007-08 Kobe Bryant, -200 (Lost)
• 2025-26 Victor Wembanyama, -190
Since LeBron James and the Lakers in the Bubble, when a team has had an odds-on favorite to win Finals MVP, they have went on to win the series, going 5-0.
What Can Brown Do For You?
Mike Brown is 65-46-2 (58.6%) against the spread as an NBA head coach in the playoffs. Dating back to the merger in 1976-77, 53 different head coaches have coached 50+ playoff games, Mike Brown's 58.6% ATS win pct is 2nd-best, behind only Larry Bird, who went 28-19-5 ATS (59.6%).
One of Mike Brown's specialties is Game 1, sort of. He is 15-7 ATS to open a series, but the bad news, he is 0-6 SU on the road in Game 1's as a head coach.
If New York starts slow, it's in his wheel house to get back in the series. In the playoffs, Brown's teams are 24-14-1 ATS off of a straight up loss, covering the spread by 3.7 PPG in those 39 matchups.
Don't Count Us Out
The Knicks may be underdogs now, but they weren't for most of the postseason.
New York closed:
• -300 vs. Atlanta
• -275 vs. Philadelphia
• -275 vs. Cleveland
• +170 vs. San Antonio
That makes the Knicks just the fourth team since 1990 to be favored in each of the first three rounds before becoming an underdog in the NBA Finals. The previous three teams were the 2016 Cavaliers, 2012 Heat and 2008 Celtics. All three won the championship.
• 2026 Knicks, +170 in Finals vs. SAS
• 2016 Cavaliers, +180 in Finals vs. GSW (W, 4-3)
• 2012 Heat, +155 in Finals vs. OKC (W, 4-1)
• 2008 Celtics, +160 in Finals vs. LAL (W, 4-2)
Rest + Wins = Underdog?
One final oddity favors New York. The Knicks enter Game 1 with at least eight days of rest, an active winning streak of eight games or longer and are still underdogs in the opener.
Only three teams have previously fit that profile since the merger:
• 2003 Nets
• 1989 Lakers
• 1982 Lakers
The last occurrence came against the Spurs in 2003, when New Jersey entered Game 1 rested, hot and still a sizeable underdog in San Antonio. More than two decades later, another New York-area team finds itself in a remarkably similar position.
(Credit to Stat Head and Sports Odds History for data in the article)
