The second round of the NBA playoffs begins with a pair of Game 1s tonight — and our NBA betting expert Brandon Anderson has locked in picks for both of today's matchups: 76ers vs. Knicks and Timberwolves vs. Spurs.
Let's dive into our NBA spread & prop picks for Monday, May 4.
NBA Spread & Prop Picks: Monday, May 4
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 8 p.m. | |
  | 9:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
76ers vs. Knicks Spread & Prop Picks
Knicks Second Half Spread -2.5
This is the smash spot of the series. I love the Knicks in the second half of Game 1 against a tired Sixers team coming off an emotional, grueling Game 7 on the road with hardly any rest.
The situational math here is just overwhelming. The Knicks’ second-half net rating is third in the NBA at +7.5, and they are the number one fourth-quarter team in the league. When they are at home in the second half, they are monsters—ranked number one overall at +12.9%.
Contrast that with Philadelphia, who is the worst second-half playoff team remaining (#22 at -3.9%). The Sixers ranked dead last in the entire NBA in third-quarter net rating. Think about how bad you have to be to be worse than tanking teams in the third quarter.
That is a 17-point swing every 100 possessions. I’m also riding the Knicks Second Half Escalator. I’ll take the 2H spread at the baseline, but I’m riding it up to win the half by 6+ (+175) and double digits (+300). I’ll even sprinkle on the Knicks leading by 15+ at the end of the third quarter at 15-to-1.
The MSG crowd will roar, the Sixers' depth issues will show, and New York is going to blow the doors off in the second half.
Josh Hart Over 12.5 Rebounds & Assists
We’re back, baby. Josh Hart rebounds & assists props—like we never left.
If you look at Hart's regular-season lines against Philly, he put up 10, 13, and 7 rebounds alongside 6, 7, and 9 assists. That’s a 17.3 RA average, and he did that in only 33 minutes per game.
In the playoffs, we’re going to get roughly 48 minutes of Josh Hart per game because he simply does not leave the floor for the Knicks.
Maxey and Brunson are projected for the most in these markets, but they are going to be focused on scoring. Hart is the one doing the dirty work.
Philadelphia is a bottom-five defensive rebounding team, and the Knicks are a top-five offensive rebounding unit. Hart is going to smash on the glass—he once had 16 rebounds in just 25 minutes against this Sixers team.
I’m also playing the Josh Hart RA Escalator. We are starting with the Over 12.5 as the base, but we are riding this all the way to 15 and 20. By the time we get to Game 3 or 4, this line is going to be 14.5 or higher.
Hart’s hustle, defensive sequences, and key passing in transition should be more than enough to push him over this line.
Picks: Knicks Second Half Spread -2.5, Josh Hart Over 12.5 Rebounds & Assists
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Timberwolves vs. Spurs First Half Spread Bet
Spurs First Half Spread -7.5
I'm backing the Spurs to cover the first half spread Game 1 tonight. We talk about this a lot on the pod, but there is a legitimate shock to the system when you jump from one playoff round to the next, especially for a team as mangled as Minnesota right now.
The Timberwolves’ offense is essentially drawing dead without their primary guards against this elite San Antonio defense. No Anthony Edwards, no Donte DiVincenzo, maybe no Ayo Dosunmu—who is even starring at guard here? Bones Hyland?
Minnesota just spent the last round facing a Denver team where, let’s be honest, they were doing whatever they wanted the last few games. Now, suddenly, they have to face actual ball pressure in a tough road environment.
The Spurs are one of the best teams in the league at home and one of the best first-half teams we’ve tracked all year.
I’ve played Spurs first-half escalators multiple times already because they specialize in these early blitzes. Between San Antonio being #1 in defensive rebounding and #1 in fewest fouls, there are simply no freebies for a Minnesota offense that is missing its top shot-makers.
I expect the Spurs to jump out to a sizable lead in the first half of Game 1 as the Wolves struggle to score in the half-court. Even if the series shifts later, this is still a great spot to back the Spurs on the first half spread.
Pick: Spurs First Half Spread -7.5
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