The NBA Playoffs resume with a trio of critical Game 6s today—Thursday, April 30. Our staff of betting experts dug into the latest NBA odds and identified best bets for all three of tonight's matchups—including picks for Celtics vs. 76ers, Knicks vs. Hawks, and Nuggets vs. Timberwolves.
Continue below for our NBA best bets, picks and predictions for Thursday's playoff games.
NBA Picks, Predictions: Thursday, April 30
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7 p.m. | |
  | 8 p.m. | |
  | 9:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Knicks vs. Hawks Prop Bet
By Matt Moore
I’m backing Gabe Vincent to hit 2+ three-pointers in Game 6. The over 0.5 line is sitting at a ridiculous -255—do not lay the wood at that price. If you’re playing this, go straight to the alternate line for 2+ to catch the hefty plus-number at FanDuel or DraftKings.
The floor here is actually very solid. Vincent has hit at least one triple in every single game of this series, but more importantly, he’s knocked down exactly two in each of the last two contests.
Tactically, I think the Hawks are backed into a corner. When you don’t have the personnel to go big, your only real move is to go smaller and lean into shooting and guard play. Vincent is Atlanta's logical answer for that adjustment.
This is a binary play for me: either the Hawks realize they need the spacing and Gabe plays a ton of minutes, or they tighten the rotation and he doesn't play at all.
If he’s on the floor, he’s firing—and I’m betting on Quin Snyder having no choice but to increase the guard work.
I like Gabe to keep the momentum going from long-range as the Hawks try to stave off elimination tonight.
Pick: Gabe Vincent Over 1.5 Three-Pointers Made (+182)
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Celtics vs. 76ers Spread Pick
Even if it feels like my eyeballs are screaming at me to run the other way, I'm going right back to the Celtics here in Game 6.
This is a trend-play. Last game, we faded Boston because after a double-digit win, they are a miserable 11-24 ATS since 2020. They didn’t just fail to cover; they’ve now lost five straight outright in that spot.
But tonight? Tonight we get the bounce-back version. Since 2020, when the Celtics are favored after losing a game as a favorite, they are 17-5 against the spread. That’s a 77% hit rate, covering by nearly five points a game—and honestly, three of those five losses can be chalked up to Heat Voodoo, which isn't a factor here.
This is still the Sixers. Joel Embiid is now a whopping 4-13 in his playoff career against the mighty Celtics.
However, this is only a one-star play for me. Why? Because I don't trust this Boston team. I don’t trust the bigs to hold up, and Derrick White is in a deep funk that I'm not sure he's going to snap out of anytime soon—he’s out there shooting 3-of-12 and looking lost.
Add in questions about Mazzulla and Jaylen Brown already starting to fade, and I just feel like I'm a bit over my skis with Boston already. I need this win for my Celtics-in-6 and Celtics -1.5 series bets. I’ve bet them at every turn, so what could possibly go wrong? Boston is clearly better; they just need to stop screwing around. I'm laying the points in Game 6 tonight.
Pick: Celtics -5.5 (-115)
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Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Prop Bet
By Joe Dellera
I’m taking Jamal Murray Over 25.5 Points because, honestly, the volume is going to be undeniable tonight.
In this series, Murray has a very high floor—we’ve seen him taking 23 and 25 shots in the games that mattered. Even in the loss where he only took 17, he was right there.
When you get into a must-win Game 6, Denver stops playing games. They aren’t looking to get role players involved; they are going to run pick-and-roll with Murray and Nikola Jokic until the wheels fall off.
If you filter for games this season where Murray takes at least 20 shots, he’s averaging 32.7 points per game and has cleared this 25.5 line in 23 of 30 games.
To me, this is purely a bet on that shot volume. Last game he finished with 24 points on 9-for-23 shooting—the efficiency wasn't quite there, but the attempts were.
Tactically speaking, the Wolves need to play Mike Conley, and Murray is just going to obliterate him in space. Between Conley and guys like Ayo Dosunmu in the rotation, Murray is going to find his spots and cook.
The Nuggets showed us their hand last game—they kept the starters in even when up 20 because they don't want to take any chances with the bench.
Expect Murray to log basically 40 minutes tonight—and when you give a guy like him 40 minutes and 20+ shots in a closeout spot, scoring 26 points shouldn't be an issue.
Pick: Jamal Murray Over 25.5 Points (-109)
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