NBA best bets and picks for Wednesday, October 30 are loaded for this 11-game slate.
Expert predictions include seven of those games, including nationally televised games in Celtics vs. Pacers and Spurs vs. Thunder.
Here are our NBA best bets and expert picks for tonight's NBA slate.
NBA Best Bets Today
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Celtics vs. Pacers
By Joe Dellera
Jayson Tatum absolutely destroys the Pacers and thrives with his ability to score at every level. Couple this with Indiana's lack of a true rebounding center and he continues to put up big rebounding numbers against them as well.
Last season, Tatum averaged 31.4 points and 10.6 rebounds against the Pacers and exceeded this PR line in seven of eight games, including the playoffs. He was arguably better during the regular season when teams do not run more nuanced coverages and he is able to just get to his spots.
Indiana still does not allow a ton of 3-point attempts, but Tatum naturally includes them in his game regardless, even though he does not rely on them for efficient scoring.
I’ll back Tatum to get back to his strong play after a relatively weak performance against the Bucks last time out.
Pick: Jayson Tatum Over 36.5 Points + Rebounds
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Indiana's defense surrendered the most paint attempts per game last season, and nothing has changed. The Pacers' guards struggle to wall off driving lanes, while Myles Turner does not deter rim attempts as the defensive anchor.
Slashers are set up for monster games against them, and Jaylen Brown paces Boston in drives per game and paint attempts per game.
In nine matchups last season, Brown scored 25+ points seven times and 30+ points four times.
Pick: Jaylen Brown 25+ Points & 30+ Points
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Lakers vs. Cavaliers
By Joe Dellera
The Lakers take on the Cleveland Cavaliers today and LeBron James once again makes a return to The Land.
The Lakers have started strong under the new coaching of JJ Reddick with plenty of buy-in on the offensive side of the ball. There has been a conscious decision to run more set offense and it’s paid off as the Lakers have the fourth-best Adjusted Offensive Rating in the NBA.
This is the best offense the Cavaliers will have seen this season. Additionally, the Lakers have the 10th best Adjusted Net Rating (+2.8) after playing the league’s toughest schedule so far, per Dunks and Threes.
The Cavs have also started strong this year with the league’s third-best Adjusted Net (+4.0) but they’ve played the league’s easiest schedule so far.
I think these teams are closer in terms of talent than this spread indicates and we’ve seen this line bounce around 5, peaking at 5.5 last night and now some 4.5s in the market.
LeBron also always gets up to play in Cleveland and is averaging 31 points per game (admittedly some distant games here) when he plays in Cleveland. There’s always some additional incentive for LeBron to thrive when he returns home.
I’m going to grab the points with the Lakers as the road dog.
Pick: Lakers +5
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Raptors vs. Hornets
By Joe Dellera
Shooters shoot.
LaMelo Ball is seeing insane usage nearing 40% this season and he’s taking full advantage of that. He’s averaging 31.7 points per game this season and is taking an eye-popping 12 3s per game.
The Raptors are playing at a top-10 pace with the 23rd-ranked Adjusted Defensive Rating, per Dunks and Threes. They’re getting eviscerated from long range and allowing a ton of looks at the rim, two areas Ball thrives from.
I see no reason to deviate from him at this point. I’m grabbing over 26.5 points.
Pick: LaMelo Ball Over 26.5 Points
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Knicks vs. Heat
This is a longshot sprinkle — emphasis on sprinkle. But it's worth a look.
Terry Rozier has been second only to Tyler Herro in usage so far. He's unlikely to usurp Herro, who has led or tied for the Heat lead in usage in each of the last three seasons. But Rozier has had a quick trigger to start the 2024-25 campaign and has finished with 19, 19 and 20 points thus far, leading the team in points and hardly being second in shot attempts.
The Knicks have showed some weakness defensively on the perimeter, whether it's guarding the 3-point line or struggling with quick guards. Darius Garland and Donovan Mitchell combined for 59 points — with Garland getting 34 — and obviously we saw that Celtics game.
Rozier poured in 34 against the Knicks in April, and his ignitability makes this worth a look for me.
Pick: Terry Rozier Points Leader (+1000)
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By Joe Dellera
Jimmy Butler always gets up to play the Knicks.
Butler is averaging 23.7 ppg against the Knicks since January 2022. He’s recorded 17+ in eight consecutive games with 20+ in six of them.
Even with the inclusion of Rozier, Butler has been strong for Miami. When Miami’s core four of Butler, Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro, and Terry Rozier have played, Butler still sees the bulk of the usage. He has averaged 22.2 ppg over their last 10 games together.
While this is a tougher matchup on paper due to Mikal Bridges and OG Anunoby, Butler still dropped 28 points against the Knicks and Anunoby last January. Bridges didn’t stop him either when he was on Brooklyn, with back-to-back 30-point performances from Butler.
This line is just too low at 17.5. He had a rough opener against the Magic but turned on the jets against the Hornets and the Pistons with 26 and 23 points.
I’ll back Butler to exceed 17.5 points in what should be a tightly contested game.
Pick: Jimmy Butler Over 17.5 Points
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Nets vs. Grizzlies
The Nets are in a tough spot defensively here.
Ja Morant is being limited to around 25 minutes per contest, and also sat out the Grizzlies' last game, but has still gone over 18.5 points in two of three games this season. He's averaging 20.7 points — nearly 30 points per 36 minutes.
The Nets aren't exactly the 2004 Pistons, and will be on the second of a back-to-back. Last night in Brooklyn they pushed the Nuggets to overtime, and now have to fly to Memphis for this one. I like this spot for Morant, the only concern is him not getting it by the time the game gets out of hand, if it does.
The Grizz are 12-point favorites, but Morant's been great to start the season, even with the minutes restriction.
Pick: Ja Morant Over 18.5 Points
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Magic vs. Bulls
By Chris Baker
I’ve cashed three best bets this season on Bulls overs, and I am going to continue to fade this defense until the books consistently set their totals closer to 240.
This team is playing a full four possessions faster than the rest of the NBA with a 109.3 pace, according to Dunks And Threes. They are also first in offensive possession length, averaging just 12.7 seconds per possession and rank second in offensive 3-point attempt rate (46.8%).
Their defense is 28th in transition rate allowed and bottom-5 in rim rate and rim efficiency allowed. It's an awful defense and a team that plays at an extremely fast pace and gets up a ton of threes.
They have the offensive talent to have success playing at that pace, so it’s the perfect recipe for overs and this spot lines up well as the Magic ranked No. 1 in offensive rim rate last season. They are fifth in rim rate thus far but have also have ramped up their 3-point attempt rate to 42% (5th in NBA).
I don’t see how the Bulls match up with the size and physicality of Orlando here. Additionally, the Bulls' one potentially plus perimeter defender, Lonzo Ball, is out tonight.
I'd play this up to 231.
Pick: Over 227.5
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This is a market cap to where I would place a blind bet regardless of the team and situation.
There are a few remaining -5.5s for Magic with the board moving to 6 and that is the most common outcome in the NBA.
I don't care what the direction is, if you can have closing line value relative to the most common outcome in the sport you are capping, that's a sharp ticket to have.
All of these situations are worth a full unit, it just happens to be the Magic vs the Bulls tonight.
Pick: Magic -5.5
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Spurs vs. Thunder
By Eric Gaston
The matchup that will always be talked about when these two teams meet is Chet Holmgren vs. Victor Wembanyama.
Holmgren is averaging 23.7 points per game this season and more importantly, he's attempting 16 shots per game, which is up from the 11.6 shots per game he averaged as a rookie last season.
He shot the ball 18 times in his first two games, and with him being matched up against Wemby, there should be added aggression for this dynamic big-man matchup.
Pick: Chet Holmgren 20+ Points
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