Warriors vs. Mavericks Odds & Betting Predictions - April 6, 2024

Warriors at Mavericks

12:30 am • NBCS-BA
106 - 108

Warriors at Mavericks Odds

Spread, Total, Moneyline

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Warriors
11-3
+5
-1-107
o224-110
-112
Mavericks
8-7
u229
+1-112
u224-110
-108
location pinSaturday 12:30 a.m.
April 06, 2024
American Airlines CenterDallas
Warriors vs. Mavericks Expert Picks
Matt Moore
Matt Moore
230d ago
Last 30d: 91-131-1 (-6.1u)
Under 224-109
0.5u
Mark  Franco
Mark Franco
230d ago
Last 30d: 5-3-0 (+1.8u)
GSW +5-110
1u
Brian Matthews
Brian Matthews
230d ago
Last 30d: 8-15-1 (+3.1u)
T.Hardaway o15.5 Pts-115
1u
Over in 7 of his last 8 games without Luka Doncic in the lineup, racking up 16/32/19/32/24/41/14/23 pts in those games
Action Island
Action Island
230d ago
Last 30d: 0-0-0 (+0.0u)
S.Curry o9.5 Rebs+Ast-125
0.4u
@GDAWG5000
Mark  Franco
Mark Franco
230d ago
Last 30d: 5-3-0 (+1.8u)
GSW +5-110
1u
Bruce  Marshall
Bruce Marshall
230d ago
Last 30d: 0-0-0 (+0.0u)
Under 225.5-105
0.95u
Gilles Gallant
Gilles Gallant
230d ago
Last 30d: 48-84-2 (+5.0u)
L.Doncic o9.5 Rebs-115
0.58u
#Tailing @JoeDellera & @PropBetGuy
Prop Bet Guy
Prop Bet Guy
230d ago
Last 30d: 69-52-0 (+10.4u)
L.Doncic o9.5 Rebs-115
1.15u
Simply stated, this is a low line for Luka right now - he’s over in 14/L17. No Lively, and the matchup could see the Mavs go smaller. And these two teams have been amongst the faster paced squads this season. Big game for both teams too. Could see Luka play 40 mins if the game stays close.
Gilles Gallant
Gilles Gallant
230d ago
Last 30d: 48-84-2 (+5.0u)
S.Curry o9.5 Rebs+Ast-105
0.5u
#Tailing @JoeDellera
Joe Dellera
Joe Dellera
230d ago
Last 30d: 74-86-3 (-2.4u)
S.Curry o9.5 Rebs+Ast+100
1u
🔄 Run it back We just cashed this at 8.5 in the last matchup against the Mavericks a few days ago and I still like it tonight. Curry has struggled to score in this matchup and has only cracked 30 points 3 times in 14 games over the last few years. However, he has made his impact as a primary facilitator and kickstarter to the offense. His RA line is set at 9.5, and he has exceeded this mark in 13/14 games against the Mavericks dating back to January of 2022. There are some Playoff games mixed in there but even in the 8 regular season games he has averaged 7.8 assists and 5.8 rebounds. He has been tremendous in this spot. He had 9 RA (2 rebounds 7 assists) back in December but that was when the Warriors were starting Chris Paul alongside of Steph. Now, with CP3 on the bench, there is greater facilitating upside for Curry and he came through with 7 boards and 7 dimes on Tuesday. I like Curry to exceed 9.5 RA tonight.
L.Doncic o9.5 Rebs-113
1u
The Mavericks play the Warriors again and Luka Doncic is primed for another big night. Luka has been incredible since the All-Star Break and is averaging 33.0 Points, 10.4 Assists, and 10.1 rebounds in 20 games. Just the other day he secured a 30 points, 12 rebound, and 11 assist triple double when these two teams met. The stat I'm targeting tonight in the rematch is Luka's rebounds. In these 20 Post-ASB games he has exceeded 9.5 boards in 14/20 games. He's doing this on 14.1 rebound chances per game but in this game against the Warriors he had 16 rebound chances. The conversion rate is high, but considering the Warriors' personnel, this is not unreasonable. When these teams played on March 13, Luka only had 3 rebounds on just 5 chances but the Warriors played an entirely different rotation without Curry and Draymond, but with Chris Paul, Kuminga, Wiggins, and Trayce Jackson-Davis. Tonight, Kuminga's status should be considered Questionable after missing his fifth-consecutive game on Thursday and Andrew Wiggins (ankle) exited Thursday's game with an ankle injury as well. The Warriors have been the second-best rebounding team post ASB but Luka gets all of those easy rebounds to help kickstart the offense in transition. Jackson-Davis has been an excellent offensive rebounder for the Warriors, but Kuminga and Wiggins are two of the team's best as well while Kevon Looney has fallen almost completely out of the rotation. On 0 Days of rest, Luka has exceeded this mark in 5/8 games this season including 3/3 after the ASB. Given his recent form and the familiar matchup, I expect Luka to exceed 9.5 rebounds, and don't mind a sprinkle on triple double (+260 FD) in an incredibly important game for both teams as they jockey for Playoff positioning.
L.Doncic Triple-Double Yes+260
0.2u

PRO Insights

Warriors logo

Warriors

GSW Insights
  • Warriors logoThe Warriors have averaged 15.2 second chance points per game on the road this season -- 4th-highest in the NBA; the Mavericks have allowed 14.2 second chance points per game at home this season -- 7th-worst in the NBA.
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Mavericks logo

Mavericks

DAL Insights
  • Mavericks logoThe Mavericks have an eFG% of 56% in close and late situations this season -- 3rd-best in the NBA; the Warriors have allowed an eFG% of 58% in close and late situations this season -- 2nd-worst in the NBA.
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Warriors vs. Mavericks Previews & Analysis

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Prop Odds Comparison

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Line Movement Tracker

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Warriors vs. Mavericks Public Betting Percentages

24%

Bets%

76%

Money%

Matchup History

Against the Spread (ATS) History

overallhomeawayfavoriteunderdog
Mavericks
7-7-15-42-3-15-62-1-1
Warriors
10-44-26-26-34-1

Over/Under History

overallhome o/uaway o/ufavorite o/uunderdog o/u
Mavericks
7-83-64-23-84-0
Warriors
9-53-36-24-55-0

Straight-Up (ML) History

overallhomeawayfavoriteunderdog
Mavericks
8-7N/AN/A6-52-2
Warriors
11-3N/AN/A7-24-1

Last 5 Matchups

dateopponentscorespreadover/undermoneyline
Apr 4thATLW 109-95-12 WU 227.5DAL -687
Apr 3rd@GSWL 100-104-U 232GSW -111
Mar 31st@HOUW 125-107-4 WO 229.5DAL -170
Mar 30th@SACW 107-103-1.5 WU 232.5DAL -119
Mar 27th@SACW 132-96+1 WU 233DAL -105

Mavericks vs. Warriors Injury Updates

Mavericks Injuries

  • Dante Exum
    PG

    Exum is out with wrist

    Out

  • Luka Doncic
    SG

    Luka Doncic (knee) available Tuesday.

    Probable

Warriors Injuries

  • Kevon Looney
    C

    Kevon Looney (illness) out Monday.

    Out

  • Brandin Podziemski
    PG

    Podziemski is questionable with illness

    Questionable

Player Stats
  • scoring
    P.J. Washington logo
    P.J. Washington
    32
    ppg
  • rebounding
    Daniel Gafford logo
    Daniel Gafford
    15
    rpg
  • assists
    Kyrie Irving logo
    Kyrie Irving
    7
    apg
  • shooting
    Daniel Gafford logo
    Daniel Gafford
    71.4
    fg%
Team Stats
41-93 (44%)
Field Goals
40-84 (48%)
12-18 (67%)
Free Throws
16-21 (76%)
12-35 (34%)
3P
12-34 (35%)
44
Rebounds
41
27
Assists
30
Turnovers
12
Steals
9
5
Blocks
9
19
Fouls
17

Warriors vs. Mavericks Odds Comparison

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Warriors at Mavericks Team Totals

MatchupOverUnder
Warriors
11-3
o112.5-110
u112.5-120
Mavericks
8-7
o111.5-125
u111.5-105