Heat vs. Nuggets Odds & Betting Predictions - November 6, 2025

#EV

“It’s not a demotion. We’re just using our versatility,” Erik Spoelstra said after the game of keeping Pelle Larsson in the starting lineup over Kel’el Ware. “There might be teams where it makes more sense to play big.” That quote frames tonight’s context perfectly. Spoelstra’s decision to go small versus the Clippers was opponent-driven. Los Angeles played Kawhi Leonard and Derrick Jones Jr. as hybrid forwards, forcing Miami to prioritize speed and switching. Against Denver’s frontcourt of Aaron Gordon and Nikola Jokic, the equation flips. This matchup demands size, rebounding, and interior resistance. Historically, Spoelstra leans into that by expanding Ware or Jović minutes, which trims Larsson’s court time and usage. From a shot-profile standpoint, Larsson’s scoring is highly dependent on catch-and-shoot and transition opportunities, nearly 70% of his total attempts come from those two play types combined. Both are areas Denver suppresses. The Nuggets allow the 3rd-fewest catch-and-shoot 3PM per game (7.8) and rank top-3 in fewest fastbreak points allowed, forcing opponents into static half-court possessions. That’s where Larsson’s involvement typically bottoms out: limited self-creation, low rim frequency, and minimal free-throw volume. Adding Norman Powell’s return only sharpens the under case. Powell consumed a 26.6% usage rate in his first game back and immediately reclaimed secondary creation duties, playing limited on 28 minutes (which can grow vs DEN). With Miami regaining multiple rotation wings (Jović, Fontecchio, Jaquez), Larsson’s offensive priority shrinks to connective passing and defensive energy. When playing 16–24 minutes without Jimmy Butler, Larsson averages 5.2 PPG and has stayed under 7.5 in 9 of 10 games (90% rate). The one outlier required 12 points when Miami lost by 55 points to the Cavs but all that usage won’t be transferable against Denver’s defensive length and pace control even if the starters get benched earlier than normal as 9.5 underdogs. #PlayerProps @everyone

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