Hawks vs. Pistons Odds & Betting Predictions - December 13, 2025

@FiddlesPicks ⭐️⭐️ https://myaction.app/Jy1SXG2v2Yb

When are we going to put some respect on the Hawks? This team is great even without their “best” player, Trae Young. Jalen Johnson is emerging as a star, and the role players are filling in perfectly. Tonight they’ll be without Kristaps Porzingis, but I still like them to cover. These teams have met twice this season with the Pistons winning both, but both games were highly competitive and came down to the wire. I will die on this hill, but this Pistons team is highly overrated. It may not appear so right now, but the advanced metrics back that up. Our whole job is identifying which winning teams aren’t for real and which losing teams are legit. We’ve done this perfectly in the NFL with the Bucs after their hot start and the Texans after their slow start. This is another case where we simply believe the Pistons are not as good as their record indicates. I have the Pistons ranked as the luckiest team in the league, and lucky teams especially those ranked #1, always start to show regression. Shot Quality also has this team as much worse than their record suggests. They’re 19-5 but own just a 14-10 Shot Quality record. Over their last seven games in this split, the Pistons are 2-5 against the spread as a home favorite, while the Hawks are 5-2 ATS as an away underdog. This shows how overvalued and undervalued these two teams are. The Hawks remain one of the best passing teams in the NBA, ranking top six in assist to turnover ratio, while the Pistons sit just 25th. Atlanta also owns the higher offensive rating and eFG%. I think the reason these teams have matched up so well this season is Detroit’s new found fast pace. The Pistons play at the 5th fastest pace in the league, and Atlanta likes to play fast, so it fits right into their game. Detroit’s defense is strong, but they lack in corner and above the break three-point defense. This is exactly where the Hawks love to shoot. The Hawks defense is vulnerable in the paint, but Detroit is just 27th in efficiency attacking the rim. They also don’t shoot a bunch of threes which always seem to kill Atlanta. I have these teams rated just 1.8 points apart. Even after adding in 2.5 points for home court advantage, I still can’t get to this 6.5 (now 7.5) number. Our model agrees, making the fair spread just Pistons -.15. This is too many points in a double revenge spot for Atlanta. Give me the Hawks to cover.