Yankees vs. Twins Odds
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+110 | 6.5 -124 / +102 | +1.5 -205 |
| Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-130 | 6.5 -124 / +102 | 11.5 +168 |
The Yankees send Nestor Cortes to the mound on Tuesday for a crucial game against the Twins.
New York is falling behind the scorching pace set by the Rays in the American League East, as its currently trailing by seven games before we've even reached May. The Yanks dropped the opening game of the series on Monday, so another loss will have the Bronx Bombers heading further toward .500 than a playoff spot.
The Twins have the same record as the Yankees (13-10), but the difference is they play in one of the easiest divisions — the AL Central — and currently have a two-game lead over the Guardians.
Minnesota will counter Cortes with Joe Ryan, who is once again posting outstanding underlying metrics.
See how I think the second game of Yankees vs. Twins plays out in my preview below, which includes a pick on the total.
New York Yankees
Cortes is coming off a season in which he posted one of the best xERAs in MLB (2.70). Through four starts, he has a 2.99 xERA and has significantly lowered both his BB/9 rate and HR/9 rate.
The left-hander doesn't have a weakness in his pitch arsenal. He mainly brings a three-pitch combination of fastball, cutter and sweeper, with all three allowing an xwOBA under .290 in 2022. He also has a Stuff+ rating over 101 for all three offerings.
Even with low velocity, Cortes has such good command to remain incredibly effective and keep the ball off the opposing hitters' sweet spot.
The Yankees lineup has been quite average this season with a wOBA of .311 and a wRC+ of 99. If you can pinpoint where they've struggled, it's in the bottom of the order.
Aaron Judge, Anthony Rizzo and Gleyber Torres each have an xwOBA over .400, while bottom-of-the-order guys like Willie Calhoun, Oswaldo Cabrera, Jose Trevino and Isiah Kiner-Falefa each have an xwOBA under .290. Basically, the Yanks have a top-heavy lineup.
Overall, they've been poor against right-handed pitching — 16th in wOBA — after being one of the best against righties last season.
The Yankees bullpen has been lights out to begin the season with a 2.24 ERA, 3.67 xFIP, 10.2 K/9 rate and MLB-leading 83.5% left on base percentage.
Minnesota Twins
For someone who threw a fastball 60% of the time last season, Ryan was incredibly effective. He posted a 3.57 xERA by primarily being a flyball pitcher. His fastball only averaged 92 mph, but he has incredible command in and around the zone — opposing hitters only had a .201 xBA and .301 xwOBA against it.
This season, he's still pretty reliant on his heater, but he's added a new pitch — a splitter, which essentially serves as his changeup. It's a really small sample size, but he's only allowed two hits with it in 88 pitches.
He also added a more horizontal slider that is now being called a "sweeper." His slider was effective last season (.226 xBA), but the sweeper has a much higher spin rate and movement than the slider.
Joe Ryan, Nasty 84mph Sweeper. 🧹 pic.twitter.com/U1cjPGD7Af
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 20, 2023
He'll have a a decent matchup against a Yankees lineup that hits fastballs well, but has struggled against sliders/sweepers and splitters.
The Twins have been below average offensively to begin the season, ranking 20th in wOBA. They've been extremely poor against left-handed pitching with a .273 wOBA and 73 wRC+. They also have negative run values against every single pitch type, so Cortes should be able to deal.
Minnesota's bullpen has been really good despite underperforming. Their ERA is 4.42, but their xFIP is 3.75, which is sixth in MLB. They also have one of the lowest BB/9 rates and are top 10 in both Stuff+ and Pitching+.
Yankees vs. Twins Betting Pick
With Cortes and Ryan on the mound, it's really difficult to see how the offenses produce enough to take this game over the total. Not to mention these teams have the best bullpens in the game right now.
For Ryan, he just needs to get through the top of the order as the bottom half should be a breeze. For Cortes, he needs to be effective with his command to get past a Twins lineup that is average against southpaws.
The weather in Minneapolis is going to be chilly at around 42 degrees — all signs point to a low-scoring run environment.
I only have 6.4 runs projected for this game, so I like the value on under 7 runs (best price as of this writing is -107; BetRivers).
Pick: Under 7 |
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