Yankees vs Twins Odds
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+135 | 8 -115 / -105 | +1.5 -165 |
| Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -155 | 8 -115 / -105 | -1.5 +140 |
Yankees pitcher Jhony Brito will have the chance to redeem himself for a historically bad outing against the Twins on April 13 in New York. Brito gave up six hits and seven earned runs, ultimately leaving the game after recording just a single out.
Sonny Gray will make the start for Minnesota in a battle against his former side. Gray has pitched to a 0.82 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in 22 innings this season.
New York Yankees
Even without Giancarlo Stanton, the Yankees offense should still be one of the better units in baseball and will make for a very tough matchup for any right-handed pitcher.
The Yankees own a wRC+ of just 99 as a team, which is certainly an underwhelming mark at 17th in the league. There are some relatively free outs in the lineup, but that was almost to be expected.
It still seems that New York is at a rare buy-low point entering this game. It has an xwOBA of .329 and owns an elite xSLG rate of .435.
The Yankees' priors do still deserve some credit as well, which is a reason they may find better results offensively. In 2022, they hit to a 113 wRC+ versus right-handed pitching.
Brito fared far better last time out against the Angels, allowing just one earned run in 4.1 innings. However, he really didn't pitch much better in that game than he did in his disastrous outing against Minnesota; he just received far better luck. Per StatCast, Shohei Ohtani's rocket in the first inning would have been 20 feet past the wall in center field without the wind blowing in.
Solid contact has been a common theme with Brito on the mound, but his command has also been quite concerning. Brito owns a 10.9% BB rate and has struck out just 17.2% of batters faced.
Brito's awful xERA only dipped from 7.65 to 7.58 after his supposedly strong showing versus the Angels. His xFIP also sits at a very poor at 5.16.
Minnesota Twins
Over the last two seasons, it has been a rarity that the Twins play with all of their key offensive pieces, but that should be the case for Monday's matchup.
Jorge Polanco made his season debut Friday against Washington and had a very strong series with five hits and a home run in 13 at-bats.
Minnesota batted to the seventh-best wRC+ in the league last season versus right-handed pitching. The loss of batting champion Luis Arraez obviously hurts its upside on that front, but that average also came with a number of key pieces missing plenty of time.
On the mound, Gray has come out of the gates like a true ace with an ERA of 0.82 in four appearances. That's amazing on paper, but it's clear that Gray is due for some results that seem closer to his 2022 season moving forward. His xERA sits at 3.25, and while his strikeout rate is up, his walk rate and hard-hit rate are both up compared to last season.
Gray's QOPA is also drastically worse at 3.86 compared to 4.25 a season ago.
Yankees vs Twins Betting Pick
Brito features alarmingly bad underlying numbers, and it's hard to make the case that he'll keep the Twins offense in check early in this one. Minnesota will likely cause some damage in the first five innings.
Gray has not been as impressive as his numbers suggest, but I also believe there's a good chance the Yankees' powerhouse offense gets some runs across in this spot.
That gives us two overvalued pitchers in a game with one elite offense in the Yankees. Meanwhile, the Twins offense could prove to be better than their preseason expectations suggested.
The F5 total is set at 4.5, with the over priced at +105. I believe that's a very solid bet in this matchup.
Pick: F5 Over 4.5 (+108) |
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