Yankees vs. Red Sox Odds
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+125 | 9 -115 / -105 | +1.5 -150 |
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -145 | 9 -115 / -105 | -1.5 +130 |
The Red Sox and Yankees play a three-game set for the second straight weekend, so ESPN puts the biggest rivalry in sports on Sunday Night Baseball for the second straight weekend.
Ho hum.
So far, the Sox have cleaned up, taking two of three last weekend and then bludgeoning the Yankees 15-5 on Friday night.
I think the bludgeoning continues on ESPN this Sunday evening.
Author's note: Saturday's game was rained out, so there's a doubleheader at Fenway on Sunday. Given this is the Sunday Night Baseball betting preview, I won't be covering the first game but recommend you keep that game in mind when handicapping.
New York Yankees
The Yankees are lifeless without Aaron Judge.
Since Judge went down on June 3, the Yankees are slashing .205/.264/.361 as a team with the second-worst wRC+ in baseball (71, only ahead of the Rockies at 65). They've scored three or fewer runs in six of 10 games played, and I'm not sure I count three of the five they got off Joe Jacques in Friday's blowout loss (who the heck is Joe Jacques?).
The Yanks are 4-6 during that time, which includes last weekend's series loss to the rival Red Sox.
Everything seems to fall apart without Mr. 62 in the lineup.
The New York Yankees without Aaron Judge:
— Mike Daddino (@mike_daddino) June 14, 2023
I'm not 100% sure why the Yankees are so pitiful without him. Major League Baseball isn't as star-driven a league as the NBA or even the NFL (when you consider quarterback play).
That said, Judge is a generational hitter, and this lineup is pretty thin.
Aside from Judge, only three of the top-nine Yankee hitters by PAs have an above-average OPS, Anthony Rizzo, Gleyber Torres and Harrison Bader.
Among those three, Bader is also on the 10-Day Injured List, while Rizzo is due for some BABIP regression (both his xBA and xwOBA are 18 points higher than his actual stats).
Giancarlo Stanton is not included in those three, although he has been hurt half the season. However, in the 23 games he has played, he's hardly been himself with a measly 104 wRC+.
Stanton still hits the ball as hard as ever (95.1 mph avg. Exit Velocity, 55.4% Hard-Hit%), but I'm not certain he'll be fine once the PAs come. New York's DH has played 133 games since the beginning of last season and has a .759 OPS to show for it.
Stanton has hit 37 homers during the stretch, and his ISO has actually increased slightly over the past few seasons. Still, his overall statistical profile is shaky at best, and I wouldn't be surprised if this is the beginning of his mid-30s downturn.
Image credit: FanGraph
The point is that the "Bronx Bombers" boast a dangerously thin roster, and they've been exposed by one major superstar injury. The Yankees must lean on their league-best bullpen to survive this downturn.
Starting pitcher: Luis Severino (RHP)
We here at The Action Network were excited about Luis Severino's return.
Alas, Severino has done nothing but disappoint in the early going. He's allowed 16 earned across 13 2/3 innings over his last three outings.
Somehow, Severino isn't getting unlucky. He pairs his 6.48 ERA with a 6.35 xERA and a 7.11 FIP, all adding up to -0.4 fWAR.
Severino's on pace for a career-low K-BB Rate (10.4%), and his batted-ball profile is a complete mess.
Image credit: Baseball Savant
Pitching models are bullish on Severino (103 Stuff+, 105 Location+), so I imagine the righty has better days ahead.
But I've said this before, and Severino has let me down. We know how high his ceiling is, but something always happens whenever he's about to "turn the corner" — including injuries, which might be unfair but is still a concern.
For example, Severino looked great in his first two starts off the IL before seeing a random velocity dip, leading to three consecutive blowup appearances.
Image credit: FanGraphs
Unfortunately, Severino is a fade for the foreseeable future.
Boston Red Sox
It's tough to get a feel for these Red Sox.
The Sox are 35-35. They've sagged off the Wildcard pace but are still in the thick of the race. They've also played immaculate baseball at times and horrific baseball at others.
Entering the season, the Red Sox were expected to be one of the highest-variance teams in baseball. So far, we've seen every part of the spectrum.
The Sox ripped off an eight-game win streak at the beginning of May, sitting at 21-14 after 35 games of play with one of the most dangerous lineups in baseball.
Since then, the Sox are 14-21 with a 96 wRC+ and have dropped sets to the:
- Cardinals (sweep)
- Angles (sweep)
- Reds
- Rays (sweep)
- Guardians
- Rockies
Masataka Yoshida went from being one of the worst hitters in baseball to one of the best before shortly reverting and ultimately settling somewhere in the middle.
Image credit: FanGraphs
Young first baseman Tristan Casas has also had a chaotic season. However, it's worth mentioning that his overall MLB statistics have been dragged down by one severely unlucky month, and he's been a highly productive hitter otherwise.
Image credit: @RedSoxStats
Casas has a great combination of patience and power, taking selective swings with a double-digit Barrel Rate (12.7%), often choosing to pull the ball. Mark my words: Casas will be good for a long time (even if his defense is highly questionable).
Rafael Devers is consistently smoking the ball but is also getting very unlucky. His xwOBA is nearly 40 points higher than his wOBA, and his .247 BABIP is holding down his 109 wRC+.
I get a lot of Devers questions and I really don't know what to point to as being way out of whack. His walk rate was down, but it's rebounding now. Almost everything is in line, aside from his BABIP being way down. I think it's just a weird thing and he's due to go off soon. pic.twitter.com/78P7Hve7t4
— Red Sox Stats (@redsoxstats) June 9, 2023
The pitching staff has looked great at times and poor at others.
Kenley Jansen and Chris Martin have reinvigorated this bullpen while simultaneously giving Red Sox fans weekly heart attacks. Jansen has posted four consecutive lights-out appearances (twice against the Yankees) but is also top-15 among relievers in blown saves (3).
Chris Sale and James Paxton had turned back the clock with increased velocity and Swinging-Strike Rates. But then Sale landed on the 60-day IL, and Paxton trade rumors are growing.
The Red Sox are in flux, and they've lived up to their high-variance expectations. Ultimately, I think they eclipse their pre-season win total (77.5) but fall just short of the playoffs in a rugged American League.
But, honestly, I'm bullish on the future of the franchise with Devers, Yoshida and Trevor Story signed. Hopefully, the Sox work out a long-term deal with Casas and a short-term deal with Adam Duvall.
Once the Sale contract finally expires, the rotation's future likely comes down to a trio of youngsters in Garrett Whitlock, Tanner Houck and today's starter, Brayan Bello.
Starting pitcher: Brayan Bello (RHP)
Bello is cooking right now. He's recorded a 2.80 ERA and 56.7% Ground-Ball Rate over his past eight starts, finally harnessing the full control of his electric arsenal.
Bello looked great against the Yankees last week, working through seven innings of two-run ball in the Bronx.
Brayan Bello’s numbers excluding his first two starts:
45 IP – 8 Starts
2.80 ERA/3.89 FIP
8.2 K/9
2.8 BB/9
1.0 HR/9
56.7% GB%
.229 BAAJust like last season, he’s getting better with every start. No homers over his last 3 outings.pic.twitter.com/fOZerQDREJ
— Tyler Milliken ⚾️ (@tylermilliken_) June 12, 2023
Bello pairs a live, high-90s fastball with a sinker to force ground balls. Meanwhile, he can work against both sides by throwing his slider against righties and his changeup against lefties.
The Stuff+ on his slider is higher (107), but his changeup has a Whiff Rate north of 40% and a Swinging-Strike Rate approaching 25%.
Bello is likely overperforming, given his xFIP is about a run higher than his ERA during this hot streak, his advanced model numbers are underwhelming, and he allows a lot of hard-hit balls.
Yet, I can't help but think this high level of success is somewhat sustainable. He's forcing tons of Whiffs and keeping the ball on the ground, a unique combination that's hard to beat.
Yankees vs. Red Sox Betting Pick
It's very easy to sell New York's offense.
It's even easier to sell Severino.
Meanwhile, we can buy into Bello's recent hot streak, even if there are some questionable peripherals.
And we can probably buy into Boston's offense at Fenway, which has been productive this past week after a fortnight of incompetence.
As mentioned, the Sox have taken three of four from the Yankees over the past week. I don't see the Bombers competing with Boston as long as Judge is sidelined, and that task becomes more difficult with Severino in his current state.
The line is a tad high, but this is the perfect spot to buy the Red Sox on Sunday Night.
Pick: Red Sox ML -140 (Play to -150) |
