Yankees vs. Blue Jays Odds
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+142 | 9 -122 / +100 | +1.5 -150 |
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -168 | 9 -122 / +100 | -1.5 +125 |
A noteworthy series between the Blue Jays and Yankees will start in exciting fashion at Rogers Centre on Monday.
The hatred between Alek Manoah and the Yankees is real, and it's a fun showdown anytime the two square off.
Manoah has pitched to a disappointing 4.83 ERA in 41 innings this season.
New York will open the game with Jimmy Cordero, who will likely be followed by Jhony Brito.
New York Yankees
The Yankees' offensive bounce-back continued in their weekend series against the Rays. New York put up 24 runs in the four contests, but only garnered a series split, as its pitching faltered badly.
In the month of May, the Yankees have hit to a 126 wRC+ and a .353 wOBA. Key bats at the top of the lineup — such as Anthony Rizzo and DJ Lemahieu — have caught fire, and suddenly this team looks much closer to what many might have expected.
New York's pitching situation for this contest is much less convincing, but the idea of using Cordero to handle the top of the Jays' order the first time around is smart.
Cordero has pitched to a 2.80 xERA and his sinker rates as one of the better pitches in baseball. He profiles well as an opener and will ideally get through the meat of Toronto's order one time.
Then we should see Brito enter the game.
Brito has pitched to a 6.97 xERA and 5.62 xFIP in a now meaningful sample of 31 innings. Batters own a xSLG rate of 1.095 on his four seamer and are consistently crushing every pitch, except his changeup.
Toronto Blue Jays
Many sharp baseball minds viewed Manoah as a logical regression candidate entering the season. Even still, I doubt many of those naysayers expected a 6.30 xERA 41 innings into the campaign.
Manoah has had a very tough time locating all four of his pitches consistently. The feel for his slider has seemingly never been there, and that concern seems to make the rest of his arsenal far less effective.
On top of Manoah's lack of command, his stuff is rating worse in terms of velocity and spin-rate.
At this point in time, there's a significant case that Manoah is far from the pitcher he was last season. Maybe we shouldn't expect an xERA past six to hold up, but he's far from an above average starter at this point.
Offensively, the Blue Jays continue to look downright scary. Their .340 xwOBA is the fourth-best mark in baseball and suggests positive regression could even be coming towards their season-long 109 wRC+.
Yankees vs. Blue Jays Betting Pick
The Yankees are kicking it into high gear offensively and will make life tough for Manoah in this matchup. Based upon what we've seen from Manoah recently, it's entirely possible he completely blows up against a hot Yankees offense.
New York's pitching situation is not much more convincing, with Cordero likely opening things up for Brito. Toronto's offense should be able to do some damage in this matchup.
It's reasonable to think that both teams should put together some solid offensive results today, and the chances of seeing something like a 6-5 final are reasonable.
It also wouldn't be surprising for one team's starting option to completely blow up before having softer bullpen arms come into the game.
+100 is a playable number for this game to get over 9.5, and I'm also interested in backing some alternative totals, as well.
Pick: Over 9.5 (+100) |
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