White Sox vs. Astros Odds
| White Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+110 | 8.5 -115 / -105 | +1.5 -175 |
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -130 | 8.5 -115 / -105 | -1.5 +150 |
Lucas Giolito and the White Sox take on José Urquidy and the Astros on Saturday.
Both of these pitchers had down campaigns in 2022, though Giolito seemed to be the recipient of some unfortunate luck. Urquidy’s expected stats were in line with his actual results. Houston likely has the bullpen edge with Liam Hendriks and Garrett Crochet out for the White Sox, but not by much.
Outside of the playoffs, Houston underwhelmed for much of the second half against right-handers last season. Backing Lucas Giolito and Chicago to grab a win is the right pick in White Sox vs. Astros Game 3.
Chicago White Sox
Giolito had been the ace of the Chicago staff until …
- Dylan Cease had something to say about it.
- 2022 happened.
Giolito posted ERAs of 3.41, 3.48 and 3.53 from 2019-2021. That is pretty consistent and much more in line from what fans should expect from him this season.
2022 was a bit of an outlier as he had a 4.90 ERA and a 4.23 xERA, indicating he was unlucky for plenty of starts. His walk rate started to climb up to close to 9% again last season, as well. It seemed to be a trend for many White Sox players last season to be injured or down, so maybe brush this one off.
Over the last few seasons, the White Sox have struggled mightily against righties. From Aug. 1 to the end of the season, they had a sub-6% walk rate and only a 93 wRC+ off righties. Adding Oscar Colás, who had a .816 OPS against righties in the Minors last year helps. Andrew Benintendi’s wRC+ of 116 and 9.9% walk rate is also a boost.
Now, the White Sox are a bit hindered in relief, but Kendall Graveman and Reynaldo López can be anchors at the back-end of the bullpen. Aaron Bummer also has an elite arsenal. In general, the White Sox had a solid bullpen with a 3.77 xFIP, so they should even this game out on the road.
Houston Astros
Excluding last season, Urquidy has not shown the same consistency in his career as Giolito. Though his ERAs have been under 4.00 each season, that doesn't tell the entire story.
Urquidy's xERAs since 2019 have been 3.83, 5.27, 3.98 and 4.56. These fluctuate far more in comparison to Giolito. In addition, Urquidy ranked in the 18th percentile in average Exit Velocity in 2022 and the 25th percentile in Hard Hit Rate. Giolito ranked in the 41st percentile in both despite a down season by his standards.
Everyone knows the Astros can hit, and they have done so against Giolito in the past. However, they shockingly only had a 98 wRC+ off righties from Aug. 1 through the remainder of the regular season, with a 7.5% walk rate.
Giolito can take advantage of this. Jose Abreu has not faced his former teammate, but he had a .368 xwOBA against righties last season. Houston is without Michael Brantley and José Altuve to begin the season, so this eliminates some threats in the Astros lineup.
Houston's bullpen performed better than any team in baseball last season with a 3.48 xFIP and 28.3% strikeout rate. On the other hand, Ryan Pressly allowed two runs in his appearance on Opening Day, notably flexing his arm as well. There was obvious discomfort, so the closer role could be a little questionable after Urquidy exits.
White Sox vs. Astros Betting Pick
Overall, the White Sox should be closer to even money. Getting them at +120 or better is a gift since Giolito is the better starter and has the ability to pitch deep into the game.
Urquidy is too inconsistent and the Astros lineup is weaker without Brantley or Altuve. Look for the White Sox to take this game — play it to +100.
Pick: White Sox ML +120 | Play to +100 |
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