Twins vs. Yankees Odds
| Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+116 | 9 -102 / -120 | +1.5 -182 |
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -134 | 9 -102 / -120 | -1.5 +150 |
Jhony Brito will make his third start of the season for the New York Yankees on Thursday night against the visiting Minnesota Twins. Brito has successfully handled his opportunity to start thus far with a 2-0 record and 0.90 ERA.
Joe Ryan will make the start for Minnesota, and he has pitched to a 3.75 ERA in 12 2023 innings. A 3.75 ERA is somewhat of an early disappointment for Ryan, who has sky-high expectations. But leading his side to a rare win at Yankee Stadium would certainly help quell any concerns.
Minnesota Twins
Minnesota was a trendy preseason pick to take the AL Central this season and is making a strong early case with an 8-4 record coming from relatively well-rounded play.
If they can continue to play at full health, the Twins should likely overachieve expectations offensively, and they have achieved solid results thus far despite arguably underachieving on the offensive side of things.
The Twins' starting pitching has been incredible with a second-best ERA of 2.50, and they could receive another quality outing Thursday from an impressive young arm in Ryan.
Ryan has pitched to an xERA of just 2.49 in his two 2023 starts. His stuff rates out fairly well, including a Stuff+ rating of 100 in the spring, and he has shown strong command while effectively mixing his pitches thus far.
The Twins have hit to a wRC+ of just 86 versus right-handed pitching, and own an xwOBA of just .304 to go along with it.
Last year, the Twins batted to a sixth-best wRC+ of 109 versus right-handed pitching. While the loss of Luis Arraez was always going to leave a formidable hole in the lineup, it is still not a team which projects to be in the bottom-fifth of the league in splits versus righties by any means.
Byron Buxton sounds like he may be given a day to rest in this contest, but does appear to have avoided serious injury after a hard collision Wednesday. Carlos Correa sounds plausible to make a return.
New York Yankees
Brito's xERA is way up at 5.11 and is a clear comment that he has had some very good fortune to have such incredible numbers, although it is also obvious to say that a 5.11 xERA is harsh and he likely won't regress to that extent.
A fair projection over a large sample is an upper middle of the pack starter. Brito has a solid four-pitch mix and his stuff rates out fairly well, but expecting the 25-year-old to put up better marks than we saw in Triple-A last season is not overly logical.
Offensively, the Yankees will remain a force versus right-handed pitching, and will make for a very tough matchup for Ryan.
The Yankees have hit to a wRC+ of 114 in splits versus right-handed pitching, and hold a 10th-best xwOBA of .336.
Twins vs. Yankees Betting Pick
It is fair to say that Ryan will outperform Brito the rest of the way, despite what has been an alarmingly strong start to the season for the latter.
Ryan will be at a disadvantage being supported by a less-talented offensive core and lesser defense, but I still believe we are getting a pretty good price to back the Twins considering how strong Ryan should be and the likelihood that Brito will regress.
Minnesota should trend up offensively versus right-handed pitching the rest of the way as well, which makes me believe that getting the Twins at +114 to win the first five with a solid starting pitching edge is a pretty great number.
Playing Minnesota to win the game at +130 is another reasonable option, but the bullpen situation for tonight's contest is concerning enough that I prefer taking a worse number for first five only.
Pick: Twins F5 +114 |
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