Mariners vs. Twins Odds
| Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +150 | 7 -115o / -105u | -118 |
| Mariners Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -182 | 7 -115o / -105u | +100 |
The Mariners won yet another close game in their series opener against the Twins on Friday, as they snuck out a 3-2 win in the 10th inning after receiving four innings of scoreless relief from the bullpen. Seattle is now 28-12 at T-Mobile Park this season, and holds a team ERA of 3.55.
On Saturday, Seattle's Bryce Miller (3.90 ERA in 92 1/3 IP) will match up against Minnesota's Pablo Lopez (5.11 ERA in 88 IP).
Can the Mariners ride their home-field advantage to a series win on Saturday, or will Lopez, Royce Lewis and the Twins even it up? Find out in my Twins vs. Mariners preview and pick below.
Minnesota Twins
It's not surprising to see the Twins heading toward July eight games above .500, but a team ERA of 4.15 is somewhat of a surprise.
Pablo Lopez's ERA (5.11) is far higher than most would have projected after a stellar 2023 season. He has struggled of late with an ERA of 6.00 in June and a WHIP of 1.24. The underlying metrics continue to state Lopez is better than his ERA suggests, which is not surprising given his prior success.
Lopez holds an xERA of 3.27 this season and an xFIP of 3.28. In four June starts, Lopez has an xBA of .219 and struck out 29% of batters faced. He owns a Stuff+ rating of 98 and a Location+ rating of 112 this season.
A 65.8% strand rate has been a large part of Lopez inflated ERA, and if he can pitch to better results with men on, it will help him find the dominant results we saw last year.
Over the last 30 days, the Twins have crushed right-handed pitching — they own the fourth-best wRC+ (125) with an OPS of .792. They have struck out 17.6% of the time over that span, and own a 33% hard-hit rate.
Seattle Mariners
The Mariners continue to come up clutch in big moments and they enter with a 5 1/2-game lead in the AL West despite a batting average that ranks 29th (.218). They have also posted a record of just 16-21 against teams above .500.
The Mariners offense has been in better form of late, as it holds a wRC+ of 112 versus right-handed pitchers over the last month. They still strike out at the second-highest rate in that span at 25.6%.
Bryce Miller has pitched to an xERA of 4.34 this season, with an xFIP of 3.94. His talent continues to be well reflected by a 112 Stuff+ rating, and he also holds a strong Location+ rating of 101.
Across five starts in June, Miller has been hard hit 39% of the time and allowed an xBA of .255. He has struck out 21% of batters faced in that span, and walked only 3%.
Twins vs. Mariners
Betting Pick & Prediction
Despite the fact that the Mariners are 28-12 at home this season and that Miller does hold a superior ERA to Lopez, the Twins still hold edges in this game that warrant being a larger favorite than -120.
The Twins own the far superior offense, and with that in mind, this price looks quite short given how comparable Lopez and Miller are.
Lopez has underachieved his expected results and preseason expectations by a wide margin, but he should be a better pitcher moving forward. Lopez matches up well versus the Mariners in particular, and should find success at pitcher friendly T-Mobile Park.
At -120, there is value backing the Twins to win this matchup, and I would play anything better than -125.
Pick: Twins Moneyline -120 (Bet365, Play to -125)
