Twins vs. Giants Odds
| Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-148 | 7.5 -114o / -106u | -1.5 +118 |
| Giants Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+126 | 7.5 -114o / -106u | +1.5 -142 |
With a 7-3 record over their last 10 games, the Twins have pulled within 4 1/2 games of the Guardians in the AL Central race entering Friday — Minnesota also holds the second AL wild-card spot. The Twins are road favorites on Friday — -148 on the moneyline at FanDuel — against the Giants as starter Joe Ryan looks to build upon his stellar 2.78 ERA on the road.
After dropping two straight to the Blue Jays, the Giants are three games back of the final NL wild-card spot. Kyle Harrison will make his second start since returning from the IL — he was roughed up for four earned runs across 3 2/3 innings on Saturday against the Guardians.
See how I think this interleague clash will play out in my MLB betting preview below, which includes my Twins vs Giants betting pick.
Minnesota Twins
Despite dealing with a number of injuries to key players all season long, the Twins continue to produce strong offensive results, and they have been particularly potent of late. Over the last 30 days, the Twins own a league-leading wRC+ of 152, and have struck out just 16.4% of the time.
The Twins has been particularly excellent against left-handed pitching over that span, as they own a wRC+ of 196 and an OPS of 1.052. They have a .399 BABIP in that span and will see regression on that front moving forward, but their excellent 0.63 BB/K ratio and strong hard-hit rate (36%) suggest it's been more than favorable luck on balls in play.
Royce Lewis owns an absurd 1.233 OPS versus left-handed pitching this season, so their upside versus lefties does take a hit with him on the sidelines once again. Lewis' injury has provided an opportunity for top prospect Brooks Lee in the big leagues, and he has taken advantage by slugging .576 with a .947 OPS in 35 plate appearances.
Joe Ryan enters this matchup in strong form, having pitched to an ERA of 3.26 over his last five starts. In those starts, he has an xFIP of 3.43 and has struck out 9.79 batters per nine innings. Batters own an xBA of .213 versus Ryan in that span.
Ryan holds a Stuff+ rating of 100 this season and a Location+ rating of 108. He continues to feature excellent command of his lively fastball, which he has thrown for a strike 72% of the time since 2022.
San Francisco Giants
Harrison had a tough return from the injured list — he pitched to an xFIP of 8.21 and was hit hard 55% of the time versus Cleveland on Saturday.
Though it was broken up by his time on the IL, Harrison has been in relatively bad form for a fairly large sample of starts. Over 138 PAs, Harrison has been hit hard 48% of the time and seen batters hit to a .315 average. He has struck out just 18% of batters in that span.
Harrison holds a Stuff+ rating of 91 with a Location+ rating of 100. He ranks in the league's bottom third in terms of whiff and chase rates.
The Giants offense has been less effective in splits against right-handed pitching this season than lefties as they hold a wRC+ of 98. Over the last 30 days, they have hit to a wRC+ of 104 against righties.
Notably, LaMonte Wade Jr. missed Thursday's matchup with hamstring tightness and is questionable for tonight's matchup.
Twins vs. Giants
Betting Pick & Prediction
Ryan enters this game in strong form and is living up to high preseason expectations. He has pitched to tremendous results away from Target Field in specific, and matches up fairly well versus a Giants team that holds modest results against right-handed pitching this season.
Harrison was shaky in his return to action against the Guardians, and was not in overly impressive form prior to his injury. The Twins have the best offense in the league against left-handed pitching and should make the most of any mistakes or weaknesses in Harrison's game tonight.
The Twins bullpen has been in fantastic form of late as well, and provides another edge in this matchup compared to what the Giants are offering.
Even at -148, I'm not convinced the Twins are favored enough given all of their edges in this matchup. Minnesota is worthy of a bet at anything better than -155.
Pick: Minnesota Twins Moneyline -148 FanDuel (Play to -155)
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