Twins vs. Astros Odds, Pick
| Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-105 | 8.5 +105 / -125 | -1.5 +155 |
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-115 | 8.5 +105 / -125 | +1.5 -185 |
The Astros will return home looking to regroup after losing three of four in an important series against the division-leading Mariners.
One of the few positive storylines in the early going for the Astros has been the surprising dominance of Ronel Blanco (1.99 ERA, 54 1/3 IP), who will take on the underachieving Pablo Lopez (5.25 ERA, 60 IP) in our Twins vs Astros Pick for Friday, May 31.
Minnesota Twins
Every year in MLB, numerous quality starters fall out of form and post surprisingly bad results.
Pablo Lopez and his 5.25 ERA are among this year's disappointments thus far. But, as you might expect, most indicators suggest he hasn't been quite so awful.
Lopez enters this matchup with a 3.26 expected ERA and a 3.28 expected FIP. Pitch models are lower on him overall this year, as he owns a 97 Stuff+ rating and a 102 Pitching+ rating, compared to last year's 99 and 109 marks, respectively.
Lopez has stranded just 63.3% of baserunners and seen his HR/FB ratio balloon to 15.9%. Those marks should improve, but he still appears to be a slightly lesser pitcher this season than last. Opponents are hitting Lopez's non-fastballs more effectively, as he has allowed a .267 average on non-fastballs, the tenth-highest mark among MLB pitchers.
The Twins offense has hit to a wRC+ of 98 and an OPS of .687 over the last 30 days. They have struck out 21.4% of the time during that span with a 31% hard-hit rate. They also own a 97 wRC+ against right-handed pitching during the stretch.
Houston Astros
Blanco's incredible start has carried Houston's underperforming pitching staff. While he has overachieved expectations with a 1.99 ERA, most underlying numbers suggest he will continue to be a significantly better-than-average starter.
Blanco has overachieved his 3.16 expected ERA mainly thanks to a 92.4% strand rate. But he's successfully eluded hard-hit balls (35.7%) and kept sluggers at bay (.347 expected SLG allowed). He's pitched to a 98 Stuff+ mark and a 99 Pitching+ mark.
Since the start of last season, opponents have posted a 31% miss rate against Blanco, the ninth-highest mark among pitchers with 85 or more innings during the stretch.
The lineup has seen a boost with some positive regression in RISP situations. Among MLB lineups, the Astros rank seventh in expected wOBA (.326) and sixth in SLG (.412). Their SLG with ducks on the pond has jumped to .408.
Over the last 30 days, the Astros own a 107 wRC+ and a .720 OPS while striking out only 19.2% of the time.
Twins vs. Astros
Betting Pick & Prediction
Houston can still hit. When the Astros get decent pitching support, they're a dangerous opponent.
Lopez appears to be a much better starter than his ERA, which isn't surprising given his history.
Meanwhile, Blanco is highly unlikely to finish the year with a sub-2.00 ERA and is a natural regression candidate.
Still, Blanco appears to be at least right there with Lopez for the time being. The Astros offense enters in far better form and was projected to be dominant entering the season, and for that reason, the Astros deserve to be more favored to win this series opener.
Pick: Astros ML (-115, Bet365)
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