The Seattle Mariners host the Texas Rangers on April 11, 2025. First pitch from T-Mobile Park is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on ROOT Sports NW.
Two-time Cy Young winner Jacob deGrom will make his third start of the season Friday as the Rangers battle against underachieving righty Bryce Miller.
Find my MLB betting preview and Rangers vs Mariners prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Rangers vs Mariners Prediction
- Rangers vs Mariners picks: Jacob deGrom to Record the Win +150 (Play to +145)
My Rangers vs Mariners best bet is Jacob deGrom to Record the Win. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Rangers vs Mariners Odds
| Rangers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +140 | 6.5 -120o / 100u | -125 |
| Mariners Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -166 | 6.5 -120o / 100u | +105 |
Rangers vs Mariners Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Jacob deGrom (TEX) | Stat | RHP Bryce Miller (SEA) |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | W-L | 0-2 |
| 0.1 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.1 |
| 3.38/3.31 | ERA /xERA | 5.73/4.79 |
| 4.60/4.07 | FIP / xFIP | 4.10/4.90 |
| 1.13 | WHIP | 1.64 |
| 15.9% | K-BB% | 6.3% |
| 43.8% | GB% | 37.1% |
| 113 | Stuff+ | 102 |
| 122 | Location+ | 75 |
Nick Martin’s Rangers vs Mariners Preview
Texas Rangers Betting Preview: deGrom's Dominance the Key
If deGrom can stay healthy, the Rangers should have every opportunity to win what should be a soft AL West division. The potential Hall-of-Famer pitched only 41 innings combined throughout the 2023 and 2024 seasons but continues to be one of the best pitchers in baseball when he is available.
deGrom finished with an ugly stat line in his last outing versus the Tampa Bay Rays, allowing four earned runs and eight hits across five and 2/3 innings of work. Still, he's offered a ton of positives in his initial two outings and still looks to be relatively close to the same pitcher we have seen produce historically dominant results throughout his career.
deGrom's average fastball velocity is down (96.7) compared to his absolute peak seasons, but he still holds a strong Stuff+ rating of 109 so far this season. His command has remained tremendous, as he holds a Location+ rating of 118.
In his first two starts of the season, deGrom has been hard-hit just 28.1% of the time and holds an xERA of 3.31. His chase rate is still in the 97th percentile, which is consistent with the majority of his career.
deGrom was reportedly slated to throw up to 85 pitches in his last outing but was taken out after throwing 82 pitches during a rocky sixth inning. The Rangers will certainly be careful not to push deGrom too deep in any start early on this season, but he should be all set to throw close to 90 pitches in this matchup.
It's been the pitching leading the way for Texas during its strong 9-4 start to the season, as it holds a team ERA of 3.74, which is inflated thanks to one horrific outing in which it allowed 14 runs. While the Rangers offense has not yet fully found its stride, at full strength the Rangers lineup should be a real asset.
Marcus Semien has hit just .122, which is particularly concerning after the 34-year-old held an OPS of just .699 last season. Corey Seager has also struggled, hitting just .220, but should be a much more likely candidate to bounce back offensively moving forward.
The Rangers lineup will be missing one significant piece in this matchup as Wyatt Langford suffered an oblique strain on Tuesday and is on the 10-day IL.
Seattle Mariners Betting Preview: Trouble at the Plate
Miller entered the season with lofty expectations after finishing the 2024 campaign with a 2.94 ERA across 180 and 1/3 innings of work. A two-start sample may not mean all that much for a pitcher entering his prime coming off such a dominant campaign, but it's hard to find many positives from Miller's first two outings.
Miller's stuff is not grading out as well as last season, as he holds a Stuff+ rating of 98 and a Pitching+ rating of 70. His average fastball velocity is also down, as is his whiff-rate.
Pitch metrics suggest Miller has been more hittable this year, and he has gotten crushed where it counts, allowing 13 hits and seven earned runs across 11 innings of work. He holds an xFIP of 4.86 and has been hard-hit 42.9% of the time.
While the Mariners pitching staff figures to be quite dominant once again, the lineup still looks shaky at best. Through their first 13 games the Mariners hold an offensive wRC+ rating of 96, and have hit just .200. They suffered a tough loss as Victor Robles a suffered fractured shoulder on Sunday, and the center-fielder is expected to be out for 12 weeks.
Rangers vs Mariners Prediction, Betting Analysis
While deGrom finished with an ugly stat line in his last outing, most indicators suggest he should still be among the best pitchers in the AL if he can stay healthy. He should be able to throw close to 90 pitches in this outing, which should provide him the opportunity to work pretty deep into the ballgame versus a soft Mariners lineup.
Miller obviously has the potential to be better than we have seen so far, but his lack of command and reduced velocity suggest his ugly results have been more than simply bad luck. The Rangers lineup should still hit righties fairly well even if they are off to somewhat of a modest start and provide a relatively tough matchup for Miller.
Backing the Rangers to win at -120 looks to be a solid option, but taking the much longer price for deGrom to earn a win at +155 looks to hold more value to me. The Rangers best chance to generate offense in this game will be against Miller, and if they head into the final three innings down versus the back end of Seattle's bullpen, their chances of authoring a comeback are quite low.
Pick: Jacob deGrom to Record a Win +150 (Fanatics)
Moneyline
As noted the Rangers to win at -125 would be my preferred side, but in this specific spot taking the significantly longer price for deGrom to earn a win is my favorite option.
Run Line (Spread)
Backing Texas to cover the run-line at +140 looks to be another solid option which would hold a similar EV to backing them to win straight up.
Over/Under
The low game total of 6.5 looks accurate to me.
