MLB Strikeout Props Tonight
Twins vs. Diamondbacks
Simeon Woods Richardson
Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-145)
Simeon Woods Richardson is having a breakout season with the Twins. After 12 starts, he has an ERA of 3.26, but has been banking on quite a bit of luck with a .264 BABIP, 77% left-on-base rate, and just a 7.5% HR/fly-ball rate.
Going forward, he’s due for regression in terms of allowing more baserunners and more runs — both of which should hurt his strikeout upside as well. His strikeout percentage takes a slight hit when the bases are empty (21%), compared to 19.5% with men on base. Allowing more of those baserunners to score will also prevent him from staying in the game and facing 22-plus batters as often.
This is a tough matchup for him against a Diamondbacks team that whiffs at the fourth-lowest rate in the league. Chase Field also ranks as the sixth-toughest park to rack up strikeouts. Contrast that to SWR's home field, Target Field, which ranks as the sixth-easiest park to accumulate Ks.
As always, I base my projection off of my K-prop simulator that plays the game 10,000 times, and from there I pull the odds. Doing this allows me to find sneaky reasons why I’m showing value, and that clearly is the case here.
As of writing, we don’t have the official Diamondbacks lineup yet, but looking at the projected lineup, SWR’s best chance to rack up Ks will be the 7-8 hitters (Eugenio Suarez/Tucker Barnhart).
One of the keys of my simulation is that it also projects when the pitcher gets pulled from the game. The most likely spot for SWR to get pulled in tonight’s matchup is right around the 4-5 hitter the third time through the order.
Only getting to face Suarez/Barnhart twice and the top 4-5 hitters three times makes this lineup much tougher to rack up Ks against. It’s one of the reasons why I’m showing value on his under at -145.
