The Philadelphia Phillies (10-7) host the San Francisco Giants (12-5) for the third game of a four-game series on Wednesday night. First pitch from Citizens Bank Park is scheduled for 6:45 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on NBC Sports Philadelphia/Bay Area.
Below, you can find my Giants vs Phillies prediction, plus probable pitchers breakdown, the latest MLB odds and public betting trends.
Giants vs Phillies Prediction
- Giants vs Phillies pick:Phillies F5 -0.5
My Giants vs Phillies best bet is the Phillies F5. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Giants vs Phillies Odds
| Giants Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -170 | 8 -105o / -115u | +122 |
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +143 | 8 -105o / -115u | -145 |
Giants vs Phillies Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Robbie Ray (SF) | Stat | RHP Aaron Nola (PHI) |
|---|---|---|
| 3-0 | W-L | 0-3 |
| -0.1 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.0 |
| 2.93 / 6.06 | ERA /xERA | 5.51 / 4.26 |
| 5.83 / 5.44 | FIP / xFIP | 5.23 / 3.63 |
| 1.24 | WHIP | 1.41 |
| 4.8% | K-BB% | 16.7% |
| 35.9% | GB% | 47.9% |
| 96 | Stuff+ | 102 |
| 81 | Location+ | 110 |
John Feltman’s Giants vs Phillies Preview
Giants Betting Preview: Red Flags for Ray
The Giants send southpaw Robbie Ray to the mound on Wednesday.
Ray has had decent numbers against these Phillies hitters in the past. They're batting .230 in 61 plate appearances against him, but I'm still concerned about Ray heading into this duel.
Ray enters Wednesday with a 2.93 ERA, but his underlying metrics suggest he's been far worse than that. He has a 6.06 xERA, more than double his current ERA.
Ray appears to have issues with his control and is often getting struck. His whiff and chase rates are down, and he only has a 36% ground-ball rate.
Those are major red flags for tonight's matchup against the Phillies. Not only is it a formidable lineup to pitch against, but the hitter-friendly atmosphere at Citizens Bank Park puts the cherry on top.
I don't have much confidence that Ray will deliver another strong performance, especially given how fortunate he's been thus far. I also fear the Giants' offense is in for a long night against Aaron Nola.
The Giants' hitters have a lifetime average of .232 against him, as only LaMonte Wade Jr. and Wilmer Flores are batting above .300 in limited appearances.
They do hit righties slightly better than southpaws, but regardless, I expect Nola to shut them down.
I don't see any value in the Giants tonight.
Phillies Betting Preview: Lineup to Strike Early
Nola has been a staple in this rotation for years, and he draws a decent matchup tonight against the Giants. Nola has done well against these hitters, and I expect that to continue.
Nola has been touched up a bit to begin the 2025 season. He's allowed solid contact thus far to warrant some concern, but overall, he still has compiled respectable metrics.
Nola is still generating whiffs and strikeouts, which is vital to sustain. His ground-ball rate has also increased thus far, entering tonight's matchup with a 49% rate.
Despite the poor numbers against Ray, the Phillies are hitting left-handed pitching much better than right-handed pitching thus far. They're batting .254 against southpaws, which increases the likelihood of them getting after Ray in the early going.
I alluded to the regression looming for Ray above, but the Phillies shouldn't have issues scoring runs early in the matchup. I'm not looking to lay the moneyline, but I'm very interested in the Phillies early in the matchup.
Giants vs Phillies Prediction, Betting Analysis: F5 Pick
The best bet for tonight's matchup is the Phillies F5 run line. You can grab a cheap run line over at FanDuel at -106 right now, and it's a solid bet to eliminate any bullpen variance.
It's a good matchup for Nola, and I like his past success against these Giants hitters.
Also, I expect major regression from Ray moving forward, and Wednesday should be a good time for it to kick in.
The Phillies handle left-handers much better than right-handers, but Ray's hard-hit and barrel rates are unsustainable in maintaining his current 2.93 ERA.
Don't be surprised to see the Phillies hang a crooked number on the scoreboard early, giving Nola plenty of run support.
Pick: Phillies F5 -0.5
Moneyline
I don't have a play on the moneyline.
Run Line (Spread)
I'm taking the Phillies on the first five inning run line of -0.5.
I don't have a play on the full-game spread.
Over/Under
I'm not targeting the over/under, as I feel most confident on the F5 run line.
