Thanks to a horrid run of play from the Twins, the Mariners are still hanging on to some hope of claiming the final AL wild-card berth despite a modest 5-5 record in their last 10 games. They are slight betting favorites Tuesday, as George Kirby will look to better his 2.94 ERA at T-Mobile Park.
Kirby will be opposed by Yu Darvish of the Padres, who left with an ugly stat-line in his return from a three-month hiatus last Wednesday versus Detroit.
My Padres vs. Mariners prediction is below.
Padres-Mariners Predictions
- Padres-Mariners pick: Over 7 Runs (-106 | Play to -115)
My Padres-Mariners best bet is on Over 7, where I see value at -106. The best line is available at FanDuel, as well as other sportsbooks. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Padres vs Mariners Odds
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +172 | 7 -106o / -114u | +100 |
| Mariners Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -210 | 7 -106o / -114u | -118 |
Padres vs Mariners Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Yu Darvish (SDP) | Stat | RHP George Kirby (SEA) |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | W-L | 11-10 |
| 1 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 3.7 |
| 3.51/3.70 | ERA /xERA | 3.61/3.54 |
| 3.70/3.93 | FIP / xFIP | 3.28/3.56 |
| 1.12 | WHIP | 1.11 |
| 16.5% | K-BB% | 19.8% |
| 38.6% | GB% | 40.4% |
| 99 | Stuff+ | 107 |
| 102 | Location+ | 106 |
Nick Martin’s Padres vs Mariners Preview
San Diego Padres Betting Preview: Dicey Darvish
Darvish left Wednesday's matchup having recorded only eight outs and allowing three earned runs on four hits. His fastball velocity was slightly above his season average of 94 mph, but he struggled to command his pitches. It was a given that the outing would be short, and we should expect a longer leash as he builds up his workload ahead of the postseason.
Darvish was effective earlier on the in the campaign, though his stuff continues to grade out far below what we have typically seen in his career.
San Diego's lineup provides a tough task for George Kirby, and it will be at full health aside from the absence of Ha-Seong Kim. San Diego ranks third with a wRC+ of 123 versus right-handed pitching since the All-Star break, with a fourth-best BB/K and a fourth-best hard-hit rate.
Seattle Mariners Betting Preview: Improved Offense Under Edgar
Since bringing in new manager Dan Wilson, the Mariners have gone 9-7. They also brought in Edgar Martinez as hitting coach, who has drawn notable improvements, albeit in a small sample, out of one of the league's worst lineups.
In 16 games since bringing in Wilson and Martinez, the Mariners hold a wRC+ of 121 and have averaged 5.3 runs per game. They hold the league's third-best BB/K ratio in that span and have reduced their strikeout ratio to a slightly more respectable 24.2%. Their 126 wRC+ against right-handed pitching in that span ranks third in MLB.
Finally having Julio Rodriguez healthy and in form has helped power Seattle's strong offensive play of late. Rodriguez enters this matchup on an 11-game hitting streak, in which he holds an OPS of 1.043.
Kirby has been a workhorse for the Mariners this season in accumulating 3.7 WAR, though his level has dipped a little down the stretch. In Kirby's last 36-1/3 innings pitched, he holds an ERA of 5.70, with an xFIP of 4.32. His strikeout rate has dropped to 20%, and his hard-hit rate has climbed to 39% in that span.
The seven lineups he has faced in that span average a 20.8 rank in wRC+ against right-handed pitching since the All-Star break.
Padres vs Mariners Prediction, Betting Analysis
This feels like a fairly volatile spot to predict what we might get out of Darvish, as he looks to continue shaking off the cobwebs from a long layoff.
His velocity and movement were on par with his typical numbers versus the Tigers, but command was an issue. Whether he is a little sharper tonight, the Mariners' recent offensive upswing suggests this isn't the smash spot for Darvish that it was earlier in the year.
Kirby has trended toward far more mediocre results for a meaningful sample, and that has been against a softer than average schedule. Now he takes on one of the deepest lineups in baseball, who do a great job of grinding out at-bats 1-9.
Overs at T-Mobile Park have not been a good play this season. A big part of that trend would revolve around how horrid Seattle's offense was under Servais, and I'm willing to buy into the idea that the Mariners will continue to be more productive the rest of the way.
At anything better than -115, I see value betting the over in this matchup.
Pick: Over 7 Runs -106 (FanDuel, Play to -115)
Moneyline
The Mariners have played to a drastically higher win percentage at home this season, where they hold a record of 41-28. Seattle is also 54-44 as a favorite this season.
The Padres have played to a comparable 40-29 record on the road. They are 50-39 as an underdog.
Over/Under
As noted above, backing overs in Seattle this season has not been an effective strategy. Games in Seattle are 24-42-2 (O/U) to the total this season.
The total is 33-34-2 in Padres road games this season, and 26-24 in games where San Diego is favored.
Padres-Mariners Betting Trends
- 47% of the bets and 72% of the money are on the Padres on the moneyline.
- 99% of the bets and 99% of the money are on the over.
- 61% of the bets and 67% of the money are on the Padres to cover the run line.
Padres Betting Trends
- The Padres are 5-5 in their last 10 games on the road
- The Padres are 2-3 in their last five games
- The Padres are 40-29 in their road games against the spread
- The total has gone OVER in three of the last five Padres games
Mariners Betting Trends
- The Mariners are 8-2 in their last 10 games at home
- The Mariners are 4-1 in their last five games against the spread
