The Milwaukee Brewers host the San Diego Padres on June 6, 2025. First pitch from American Family Field is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on FDSWI.
Read our Padres vs Brewers prediction and MLB pick below.
My Padres vs Brewers Prediction
- Padres vs Brewers Picks: Under 9 (-130, BetMGM)
My Padres vs Brewers best bet is on the Under. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Padres vs Brewers Odds
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -170 | 8.5 -120o / -100u | +125 |
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +140 | 8.5 -120o / -100u | -150 |
Padres vs Brewers Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Randy Vasquez (SDP) | Stat | RHP Chad Patrick (MIL) |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | W-L | 3-4 |
| -0.1 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.6 |
| 3.99 / 5.86 | ERA / xERA | 2.97 / 3.77 |
| 5.35 / 5.56 | FIP / xFIP | 3.30 / 4.26 |
| 1.47 | WHIP | 1.21 |
| 1.9% | K-BB% | 14.8% |
| 41.5% | GB% | 25.5% |
| 96 | Stuff+ | 104 |
| 99 | Location+ | 101 |
Tanner McGrath’s Padres vs Brewers Preview
One of our PRO betting systems got a hit on this game: Contrarian Unders for Winning Teams.
In games between two winning teams where the public is heavily favoring the Over, Unders have been super profitable over the past two decades. This trend is 94-79-2 this season (54% win, 3% ROI).
I like Brewers starting pitcher Chad Patrick, a rookie who has pitched to a sub-three ERA through his first 12 big league starts. He’s due for some home run regression (5.7% HR/FB rate) given his extreme fly-ball splits (25.5% GB rate), but he strikes out batters behind three plus pitches (104 Stuff+ fastball, 110 Stuff+ cutter, 109 Stuff+ slider).
Hopefully, Patrick can shut down a Padres lineup that’s slumping (82 wRC+ against right-handed pitching over the past two weeks, fourth-worst in MLB during the stretch).
I don’t particularly like Padres starting pitcher Randy Vasquez, who has lost over a tick of velocity over the past two seasons, leading to subpar advanced pitching model metrics (96 Stuff+) and brutal earned run indicators (5.86 xERA, 5.56 xFIP).
That said, the Brewers haven’t hit right-handed pitching well all season (94 wRC+, 25th).
Additionally, I like both bullpens, and all the high-leverage relievers are rested for this matchup in Milwaukee on Friday.
There’s enough juice here to take the Under. Our Action PRO Model projects only 8.2 runs for the game.
Pick: Under 9 (-130, BetMGM)
